Comments on: On risk and decision making http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/ Temporarily Torontonian Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:04:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Anonymous http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-26898 Anonymous Thu, 01 Nov 2007 14:06:49 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-26898 Even worse: after someone reports a "terrorist threat," the whole system is biased towards escalation and cover-your-ass (CYA) instead of a more realistic threat assessment. Watch how it happens. Someone sees something, so he says something. The person he says it to -- a policeman, a security guard, a flight attendant -- now faces a choice: ignore or escalate. Even though he may believe that it's a false alarm, it's not in his best interests to dismiss the threat. If he's wrong, it'll cost him his career. But if he escalates, he'll be praised for "doing his job" and the cost will be borne by others. So he escalates. And the person he escalates to also escalates, in a series of CYA decisions. And before we're done, innocent people have been arrested, airports have been evacuated, and hundreds of police hours have been wasted. Even worse: after someone reports a “terrorist threat,” the whole system is biased towards escalation and cover-your-ass (CYA) instead of a more realistic threat assessment.

Watch how it happens. Someone sees something, so he says something. The person he says it to — a policeman, a security guard, a flight attendant — now faces a choice: ignore or escalate. Even though he may believe that it’s a false alarm, it’s not in his best interests to dismiss the threat. If he’s wrong, it’ll cost him his career. But if he escalates, he’ll be praised for “doing his job” and the cost will be borne by others. So he escalates. And the person he escalates to also escalates, in a series of CYA decisions. And before we’re done, innocent people have been arrested, airports have been evacuated, and hundreds of police hours have been wasted.

]]> By: Anon http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-25940 Anon Fri, 19 Oct 2007 15:56:30 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-25940 I wanted to alert you to a new report from Ceres that examines the insurance industry’s response to global warming. As the world's largest industry, with core competencies in risk management and finance, the insurance industry is well positioned to be part of the solution to climate change. The report, authored by IPCC scientist Evan Mills of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, finds that insurers worldwide are now offering hundreds of initiatives to tackle climate change and rising weather losses. The number of initiatives identified, which include pay-as-you-drive auto insurance, green buildings insurance, and weather derivatives for renewable energy projects, has more than doubled since a similar report was released last year. However, the report also highlights the fact that two-thirds of insurers are not yet experimenting with these approaches. The report is available for download at http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=340 I wanted to alert you to a new report from Ceres that examines the insurance industry’s response to global warming.
As the world’s largest industry, with core competencies in risk management and finance, the insurance industry is well positioned to be part of the solution to climate change.

The report, authored by IPCC scientist Evan Mills of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, finds that insurers worldwide are now offering hundreds of initiatives to tackle climate change and rising weather losses. The number of initiatives identified, which include pay-as-you-drive auto insurance, green buildings insurance, and weather derivatives for renewable energy projects, has more than doubled since a similar report was released last year.

However, the report also highlights the fact that two-thirds of insurers are not yet experimenting with these approaches.

The report is available for download at
http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=340

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3442 Anonymous Tue, 22 Aug 2006 23:55:58 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3442 <a href="http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/educating_users.html" rel="nofollow">Education in the context of computer security</a> (Via Bruce) Education in the context of computer security (Via Bruce)

]]> By: R.K. http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3326 R.K. Sat, 12 Aug 2006 04:40:09 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3326 The ones on <a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8503508975371819705&q=penn+and+teller+bullshit" rel="nofollow">abstinence</a> and <a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3653114296815352489&q=penn+and+teller+bullshit" rel="nofollow">the war on drugs</a> are basically slam dunks. The ones on abstinence and the war on drugs are basically slam dunks.

]]> By: R.K. http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3324 R.K. Sat, 12 Aug 2006 04:29:27 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3324 Does this post have anything to do with this recently published <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/53786" rel="nofollow">collection of libertarian diatribes</a>? Either way, you might enjoy some of them. Does this post have anything to do with this recently published collection of libertarian diatribes? Either way, you might enjoy some of them.

]]> By: Milan http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3325 Milan Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:34:57 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2006/08/12/on-risk-and-decision-making/#comment-3325 Penn and Teller can be funny and effective at times. At other times, they take positions on the basis of pretty questionable thinking. Of course, exposure to exactly such arguments is good training for thinking through such issues yourself. Penn and Teller can be funny and effective at times. At other times, they take positions on the basis of pretty questionable thinking.

Of course, exposure to exactly such arguments is good training for thinking through such issues yourself.

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