Comments on: Contraction and convergence http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/ dispatches from Canada's capital Sat, 20 Mar 2010 04:15:43 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: China and other developing states http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-86729 China and other developing states Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:15:09 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-86729 [...] they are going to need to develop primarily on the basis of low- and zero-carbon forms of energy (at the same time as developed states are aggressively cutting back on fossil fuel use) or we will get into a situation where it becomes very difficult to imagine how [...] [...] they are going to need to develop primarily on the basis of low- and zero-carbon forms of energy (at the same time as developed states are aggressively cutting back on fossil fuel use) or we will get into a situation where it becomes very difficult to imagine how [...]

]]> By: . http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-84650 . Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:21:30 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-84650 "<a href="http://www.grist.org/article/2009-12-07-china-minister-eyes-date-for-peak-carbon-emissions/" rel="nofollow">China’s greenhouse gas emissions will peak between 2030 and 2040, the country’s science and technology minister said Monday</a>, as crunch talks on climate change were getting under way in Copenhagen. Wan Gang said the precise timing of the level would depend on China’s economic growth, rate of urbanization, and level of scientific development. “There are some uncertainties here, so it is difficult to say whether it will be in the beginning, the end, or the middle, but I can say for sure it will be within that range (of 2030-2040),” he told the Guardian. China, the world’s largest carbon gas polluter, has promised to make gains in energy efficiency, but has yet to announce a peak date for emissions." “China’s greenhouse gas emissions will peak between 2030 and 2040, the country’s science and technology minister said Monday, as crunch talks on climate change were getting under way in Copenhagen.

Wan Gang said the precise timing of the level would depend on China’s economic growth, rate of urbanization, and level of scientific development.

“There are some uncertainties here, so it is difficult to say whether it will be in the beginning, the end, or the middle, but I can say for sure it will be within that range (of 2030-2040),” he told the Guardian.

China, the world’s largest carbon gas polluter, has promised to make gains in energy efficiency, but has yet to announce a peak date for emissions.”

]]> By: Getting to carbon neutrality http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-84238 Getting to carbon neutrality Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:14:05 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-84238 [...] in mind that these are global pathways. Under a contraction and convergence approach, where countries cut emissions while simultaneously becoming more equal in terms of per [...] [...] in mind that these are global pathways. Under a contraction and convergence approach, where countries cut emissions while simultaneously becoming more equal in terms of per [...]

]]> By: Climate science and policy-making http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-83536 Climate science and policy-making Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:25:07 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-83536 [...] (2004), p.555-600. One key idea related to international equity and climate change mitigation is contraction and convergence: an arrangement in which the emissions from all states eventually fall to zero, but where the [...] [...] (2004), p.555-600. One key idea related to international equity and climate change mitigation is contraction and convergence: an arrangement in which the emissions from all states eventually fall to zero, but where the [...]

]]> By: . http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-83264 . Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:05:40 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-83264 <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/datablog/2009/oct/22/carbon-emissions-data-country-world" rel="nofollow">World carbon emissions, by country: new data released</a> The US is no longer number one emitter of carbon dioxide, having been overtaken by China in these latest figures. But when did it happen? World carbon emissions, by country: new data released

The US is no longer number one emitter of carbon dioxide, having been overtaken by China in these latest figures. But when did it happen?

]]> By: The Age of Stupid http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-82919 The Age of Stupid Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:20:15 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-82919 [...] point that the pattern of fossil fuel-fired development followed in the West cannot be repeated (contraction and convergence). It stresses how lags in the climate system mean we need to take decisive action long before the [...] [...] point that the pattern of fossil fuel-fired development followed in the West cannot be repeated (contraction and convergence). It stresses how lags in the climate system mean we need to take decisive action long before the [...]

]]> By: Garnaut on managing risk http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-56219 Garnaut on managing risk Sat, 22 Nov 2008 23:29:31 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-56219 [...] iteration). The agreement needs to incorporate equity concerns, especially through the principle of contraction and convergence, and national commitments must add up to the global [...] [...] iteration). The agreement needs to incorporate equity concerns, especially through the principle of contraction and convergence, and national commitments must add up to the global [...]

]]> By: . http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34959 . Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:34:26 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34959 <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/2/28/134525/930" rel="nofollow">'Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions'</a> A new climate science paper calls for dramatic action Avoiding climate catastrophe will probably require going to near-zero net emissions of greenhouse gases this century. That is the conclusion of a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters (subs. req'd) co-authored by one of my favorite climate scientists, Ken Caldeira, whose papers always merit attention. Here is the abstract: Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales. ‘Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions’
A new climate science paper calls for dramatic action

Avoiding climate catastrophe will probably require going to near-zero net emissions of greenhouse gases this century. That is the conclusion of a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters (subs. req’d) co-authored by one of my favorite climate scientists, Ken Caldeira, whose papers always merit attention. Here is the abstract:

Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.

]]> By: Milan http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34895 Milan Thu, 28 Feb 2008 16:09:37 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34895 R.K. Political acceptability is certainly a big problem. That said, contraction and convergence has some hope of (a) solving the problem (b) being feasible and (c) seeming fair. R.K.

Political acceptability is certainly a big problem. That said, contraction and convergence has some hope of (a) solving the problem (b) being feasible and (c) seeming fair.

]]> By: Milan http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34894 Milan Thu, 28 Feb 2008 16:08:46 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34894 The comic is accurate and amusing. Anything about the biochemistry of caffeine has appeal to me. The comic is accurate and amusing. Anything about the biochemistry of caffeine has appeal to me.

]]> By: R.K. http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34889 R.K. Thu, 28 Feb 2008 13:57:09 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34889 <a href="http://www.phdcomics.com/comics.php?f=983" rel="nofollow">This comic</a> will probably serve as a funny reminder of your student days</a> This comic will probably serve as a funny reminder of your student days

]]> By: R.K. http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34887 R.K. Thu, 28 Feb 2008 13:54:29 +0000 http://www.sindark.com/2008/02/27/contraction-and-convergence/#comment-34887 That does look like a fair sort of progression. The biggest question that jumps out of that graph is "will it be politically acceptable to force Americans to follow their downward-sloping line during the period when people in China are still trending upward?" That does look like a fair sort of progression. The biggest question that jumps out of that graph is “will it be politically acceptable to force Americans to follow their downward-sloping line during the period when people in China are still trending upward?”

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