%!TEX TS-program = xelatex
%!TEX encoding = UTF-8 Unicode

%
% Draft PhD thesis proposal
%
% Created by Milan Ilnyckyj on 2017-02-24
% Copyright Milan Ilnyckyj. All rights reserved.
% Last edited 2017-02-28

% University of Toronto, Department of Political Science. Committee members: Andrea Olive, Kate Neville, Peter Russell, and Joseph Carens


% Style guide
% Keep spelling and punctuation unchanged in quotations
% Regardless of other sources, use People's Climate March
% Use punctuation which is `logical'.
% Use Keystone XL pipeline and Northern Gateway pipeline
% Use \emph{Laudato Si'}
% Use B.C.\ for British Columbia
% Use U.S.\ for United States - except US$
% For periods that don't end sentences use .\
% For sentences that end with capital letters use \@.
% For ellipses use \ldots
% Use \ldots\
% Use U~of~T
% Use $1.5 M or B for million or billion
% Use greenhouse gases (with one s)
% Use \href{https://350.org}{350.org}
% \acronym{UNFCCC} provides small caps for acronyms and initialisms
% \ce{CO2}



\documentclass[12pt]{article}



% This is the preamble

% Use system fonts
\usepackage{fontspec}
\defaultfontfeatures{Perpetua}

% Define colours for use in this document
\usepackage{color}
\definecolor{dkred}{rgb}{0.9,0.05,0.05}
\definecolor{navy}{rgb}{0.1,0.1,0.4}
\definecolor{gray75}{gray}{0.75}
\definecolor{gray20}{gray}{0.2}

% Indent first graphs
\usepackage{indentfirst}

% Letter sized paper with 1 inch margins
\usepackage[paperwidth=8.5in,paperheight=11in,left=1in,top=1in,right=1in]{geometry}

% Microtype for formatting improvements
% \usepackage[activate={true,nocompatibility},final,tracking=true,kerning=true,spacing=true,factor=1100,stretch=10,shrink=10]{microtype}
% activate={true,nocompatibility} - activate protrusion and expansion
% final - enable microtype; use "draft" to disable
% tracking=true, kerning=true, spacing=true - activate these techniques
% factor=1100 - add 10% to the protrusion amount (default is 1000)
% stretch=10, shrink=10 - reduce stretchability/shrinkability (default is 20/20)

% Package for chemical formulas - use \ce{CO2} for CO2
\usepackage[version=3]{mhchem}

% Define command to put accent in Metis
\newcommand{\Metis}{M\'{e}tis }

% Allow tables
\usepackage{array}
\usepackage{booktabs}

% Bibliography settings
\usepackage[style=authortitle-icomp,natbib=true,sortcites=true,block=space]{biblatex}
\bibliography{proposal.bib}

% Allow figures
\usepackage{graphicx}
% \usepackage{morefloats}

% Set double spacing
\usepackage{setspace}
\setstretch{2}

% Use small caps for acronyms and initialisms
\newcommand{\acronym}[1]{\textsc{#1}}

% Code for fancy section headings
\usepackage{titlesec, blindtext, color}
\newcommand{\hsp}{\hspace{20pt}}
\titleformat{\section}[hang]{\Large\bfseries}{\thesection\hsp\textcolor{gray75}{|}\hsp}{0pt}{\Large\bfseries}

% Put commas between adjacent footnotes with \fnsep
% Text.\footnote{Here is a footnote.}\fnsep\footnote{Here is another footnote.}
\newcommand\fnsep{\textsuperscript{,}}

% Allow URLs
\usepackage{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks=true,allcolors=navy]{hyperref}



\title{Campus Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaigns}
\author{Milan Ilnyckyj}



% The preamble is ending now



\begin{document}



\setstretch{1}
\maketitle



\tableofcontents
\setstretch{2}



\section{Research question}


\setstretch{1}
\subsection{What factors are correlated with the success or failure of campus fossil fuel divestment (CFFD) campaigns, as defined according to three metrics? To what degree can causal claims be substantiated through case studies?}
\setstretch{2}


\subsection*{Independent variables}



\begin{description}
	\item[Institutional characteristics] Public versus private universities; policies in place regarding divestment; specific individuals or bodies empowered to make divestment choices; overall governance system; content of investment portfolio (and history of recent returns); political context; financial or other relationships with fossil fuel corporations
	\item[Institutional history] Divestment precedents, both successful and unsuccessful
	\item[Campaign origin] Whose initiative? Initial resources, if any, provided by outside organizations
	\item[Campaign organization] Decision-making procedures, organizational structure --- Are there elected positions? Does decision-making happen in an accessible forum? 
	\item[Campaign strategy] Whose behaviour are they trying to change, and through what broad means? Any enduring alliances with outside organizations or campaigns? To the extent it can be determined, what theory of change was the campaign initially based on? Did it shift, or was it contested while the campaign was going on?\footnote{`Theory of change' (TOC) is a core concept in the practice and study of activism. In \emph{The End of Nature}, Bill McKibben confesses his earlier naivety about the concept, summarizing his implicit notion as: ``people would read my book --- and then they would change''. In a sense, the foundation of \href{https://350.org}{350.org} can be seen as McKibben's next attempt at a more promising mechanism. At the time of their merger with U.S.\ climate activist group 1Sky in 2011, \href{https://350.org}{350.org} expressed a threefold TOC: ``We will directly confront the barriers to climate progress–from Big Coal to the US Chamber of Commerce, from the cabal of corrupt politicians attacking the Clean Air Act to an administration too timid to defend it. We will empower and mobilize a grassroots army–individuals, businesses, organizations, and front-line community leaders pushing for climate solutions in the United States. We will continue our work globally to build a diverse climate movement all around the world that unites for strategic mobilizations on a scale previously unimagined.'' On their current website for job listings, they say: ``We get how social change works. It's not just about winning campaigns — it's about changing the politics of what's possible.''}\fnsep\footcite[See also comments from divestment campaigners in: ][p. 354--5]{Klein2014}\fnsep\footcite[Hirsch summarizes the theory of change of the Columbia and Barnard anti-apartheid movements as: ``divestment would advance the anti-apartheid movement by putting economic and political pressure on the white regime of South Africa.''][p. 247]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
	\item[Campaign tactics] Persuasive versus confrontational, short-term cooperation with other groups or campaigns, media and public relations strategy
	\item[Campus activism landscape] Specifically, other ongoing divestment campaigns? In particular, is a BDS campaign happening at the same time?
	\item[Timing] Which other fossil fuel divestment campaigns had succeeded or failed before or during this campaign? Did any relevant changes in the political leadership of the relevant jurisdiction take place? Were economic times good or bad while the campaign was going on, both locally and nationally? What happened to fossil fuel prices during the campaign?
	\item[Student commitment] Number of volunteers and organizers; frequency of meetings; total investment of time and resources
	\item[Faculty involvement] When, if at all, did faculty become involved? In what capacity? To what degree did they influence the choice of strategy and tactics?
\end{description}	



\subsection*{Dependent variables}




Campaign success, as assessed via three metrics:
\begin{description}
	\item[Institutional response] Including public statements, the establishment and reporting of committees, and changes to investment strategies (as well as any public justification --- economic, ethical, or both --- for why changes were or were not made)
	\item[Influence on outside actors] Including other universities, institutional investors, and decision-makers (for instance, the University of Toronto (U~of~T) divestment brief was used in locally-tailored form by successful campaigns at the Trinity St-Paul United Church in Toronto and the University of Glasgow)
	\item[Training and motivation of activists] Status of volunteers in ongoing fossil fuel divestment campaigns, subsequent activist work done by former divestment campaigners, and changes to the theory of change of activists who have been involved in divestment
\end{description}
In general, we can judge CFFD campaigns to be more successful when they induce positive institutional responses from universities, especially commitments to divest; when similar institutional responses occur elsewhere in ways that can be connected back to a CFFD campaign, including the use of materials or explicit acknowledgment by the second institution; and where former CFFD participants remain active in social justice and environmental campaigning, develop useful skills, and develop theories of change that support effective future action.



Assessments about success and failure by campaigns themselves --- as well as their public statements --- will also be considered, but accorded lesser importance.
In part, this is because campaigns may choose to present any outcome as a success in order to improve morale and `create momentum'.
Alternatively, campaigns may evaluate outcomes too pessimistically, as only a tiny contribution to addressing climate change overall.



\section{Hypotheses}



My hypotheses about the three dependent variables have been developed on the basis of long-running exposure to ongoing CFFD campaigns, including extensive personal involvement with the U~of~T campaign.
It is also informed by continuous media monitoring on CFFD campaigns in Europe, North America, and elsewhere, as well as activist publications, mailing lists, and personal correspondence.
The object of these hypotheses is to consider what explanatory power we can bring to bear on the experiences of campus fossil fuel divestment activists and organizers in the period between 2011 and 2017, as well as those who their campaigns have sought to influence. 



\setstretch{1}
\subsection{H1: Institutional responses will be most readily explained by path dependence, specifically in terms of the existence and outcome of prior divestment campaigns, and the decision-making processes targeted by activists.}
\setstretch{2}



% Alternative explanations
This hypothesis could be contrasted with effort to explain divestment outcomes based on the specific financial circumstances of each university (including both composition of and recent performance of their endowments) or the economic conditions in the relevant jurisdiction (economic growth, unemployment, or the fossil fuel industry's share of the total economy).
By contrast, a path dependence explanation would be supported by cases where policies and institutions established in response to prior non-fossil fuel divestment campaigns would largely shape the odds of success for CFFD.
% \footcite[For instance, in an article discussing Swarthmore's rejection of divestment, John Schwartz notes: ``The college, founded by Quakers in 1864 on a few hundred wooded acres near Philadelphia, has resisted the students' demands, citing the school's investment guidelines, which since 1991 have required management for ``the best long-term financial results, rather than to pursue other social objectives.''''][]{SchwartzSwarthmore}



% The financial case for FFD
Attempts at explaining variation in institutional responses on the basis of rational financial calculations are complicated because CFFD includes a financial as well as an ethical case for action.\footcite[See: ][p. 77--94]{BriefUpdate}
If governments eventually become serious about constraining global climate change to less than 2~˚C or 1.5~˚C, they have the legislative and regulatory powers necessary to prohibit the production of most of the world's remaining fossil fuels.
In that scenario, it's likely that the fossil fuel options with the lowest extraction costs and energy requirements for production that would be prioritized during an aggressive phase-out to climate safe forms of energy.
Producers with exceptionally high costs and per-unit greenhouse gas emissions may be those who are most likely to find their assets stranded in such a scenario.
In February 2017, Exxon Mobil ``revised down its proved crude reserves by 3.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent'' and ``de-book[ed]  the entire 3.5 billion barrels of bitumen reserves at the Kearl oil sands project in northern Alberta, operated by Imperial Oil, a Calgary-based company in which Exxon has a majority share''.\footcite[][]{ExxonDebookKearl}
This arguably creates massive regulatory risk for the fossil fuel industry, making it a poor investment on purely financial terms.
There are also backward-looking assessments showing that the industry has underperformed markets as a whole in recent years and decades, meaning fossil fuel divestment undertaken years ago would have been a smart financial choice.



% Do campaign strategies and tactics matter?
One open question is the extent to which the strategic and tactical choices made by campaigns affect their success, as opposed to pre-existing features of the universities where they operate.
The main strategic choice made by CFFD campaigns is the degree to which they emphasize persuasion as opposed to confrontation in their engagement with university officials.
Political opportunity theory and concepts like the Overton window may be applicable to assessing cases where institutional decisions may vary in response to campaign strategies and tactics.\footcite[For instance: ][]{meyer2004protest}



% Anti-apartheid progression at Columbia
Hirsch describes a progression of strategies in the anti-South African apartheid campaigns at Columbia and Barnard: ``At first, the [Coalition for a Free South Africa] CFSA tried to advance divestment by using traditional avenues of influence. In 1983, the organization was able to gain a unanimous vote for divestment by administration, faculty, and student representatives in the University Senate, but Columbia's Board of Trustees rejected the resolution. \ldots\ In the next phase of divestment, the CFSA sponsored rallies and vigils to call attention to the intransigence of the Truestees''.\footcite[][p. 247]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
This subsequently progressed into an elaborate plan to draw students to an April 4th anti-apartheid march that organizers re-established as a building blocking act of ``civil disobedience'' without forewarning the participants.\footcite[][p. 247-8]{hirsch1990sacrifice}\fnsep\footnote{This is an extreme case of operational security clashing with norms of democratic decision-making.}
As the blockade continued for weeks, the use of contentious tactics on the part of protestors led to forcible administration responses, including videotaping participants, sending them letters threatening expulsion, and obtained a court order calling on the participants in the blockade to cease and desist.\footcite[][p. 249]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
The end of the blockade on April 25th sharply reversed its impromptu beginning, from the perspective of participants, with a ``commitment to democratic decision-making'' reminiscent of the Occupy Movement in which ``a serious attempt was made to reach consensus among all those on the steps; votes were held on only a few occasions''.\footcite[][p. 250]{hirsch1990sacrifice}



% Can you be confrontational and persuasive at the same time?
While the persuasive and confrontational strategies can be used together in a certain measure, campaigns must essentially either embrace the decision-making process proposed by the university and seek to encourage a positive decision through rational argument, evidence, and the development of support in various campus constituencies, or they can reject the proposed process as illegitimate and seek to pressure the university to change it.\footcite[Curnow and Gross describe such a hybrid strategy: ``building a rational and well-argued case to present to decision makers and building support on campus to push these decision makers should they balk''. Still, this involves at least provisionally accepting the legitimacy of the school's decision-making process.][p. 375]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
An insurgent campaign that rejects a university's process loses the ability to present itself as a reasonable source of credible information, though an approach based on cooperation risks being subtly undermined by resistant administrations or opponents with private channels of influence.



% Exactly what kind of divestment are you asking for?
Another strategic question is precisely what form of divestment to seek.
A common choice, essentially recommended by \href{https://350.org}{350.org} is to divest from ``The Carbon Underground: The World’s Top 200 Companies, Ranked by the Carbon Content of their Fossil Fuel Reserves'', though alternatives include calling for divestment specifically from mountaintop removal coal mining, or more broadly from institutions like banks that themselves invest in major fossil fuel projects.
Some campaigns have chosen specifically or especially to target the coal industry and Canada's bitumen sands.\footnote{There has been much discussion about the appropriate terminology for this Canadian resource, with proponents generally favouring ``oil sands'' and opponents using ``tar sands''. This thesis will use the more accurate term ``bitumen sands'', since the substance is neither tar nor oil chemically.}
This has particular political and geographic relevance in North America as production of these fossil fuel types is concentrated in a fairly small number of political jurisdictions and plays an outsized role in their local economic makeup.
Another strategic decision is what recommendation to make for divested funds: to reinvest in the stock market at large, to invest specifically in climate-safe forms of energy, to invest in on-campus energy efficiency, etc.
Specific tactics, including occupation of administration buildings, may also affect campaign outcomes for institutions and organizers.



% Persuasion versus compulsion
One somewhat odd feature of many CFFD campaigns is that they present themselves as demanding insurgents who are somehow able to ``force'' divestment, while in actuality they are in a position where they need to persuade university decision-makers that divestment is prudent and desirable.
Such language may be empowering and emotionally satisfying for organizers, but risks skewing the selection of strategies and tactics away from those with the best odds of success.
This distinction between persuasion and forcing also relates to the perceived audience of divestment campaigns which, in the eyes of some, may be political decision-makers or the general public rather than those empowered to make investment decisions at their school.
The general aspiration to de-legitimize the fossil fuel industry (which may be served indirectly by convincing a university to divest) can also be pursued directly by ongoing campaigns, taking advantage of public attention and media interest which the campaign has created.



% When might tactics and strategy matter?
Maybe strategic and tactical choices make a difference only in marginal cases.
More confrontational tactics should be expected at schools where fossil fuel divestment is more controversial, such as those in jurisdictions that are major fossil fuel producers.
Tensions between more and less formal approaches to decision-making have been a source of contention and conflict within climate activist groups and divestment campaigns.\footcite[For an important analysis of formal versus informal decision-making systems, see: ][]{Freeman1970}\fnsep\footcite[The eclipsing of formal by informal structures of decision-making is an interesting mechanism for explaining the emergence of decision-making elites within many types of organizations. It's possible Robert Michels' iron law of oligarchy applies within some climate activist groups, as broad-based communal decision-making is supplanted by informal coordination by an elite sub-group. One dimension of Curnow's study of the U~of~T campaign concerned the perception of expertise accorded to some organizers but not to most.][TK page]{Michels1966}



% What Laval teaches
The case of divestment at Université Laval in Quebec City is suggestive.
While Alice-Anne Simard does write about standard campaign tactics like reaching out to student government, she has also written a remarkable account of how, two hours into their first discussion with Éric Bauce, executive vice rector in charge of sustainable development, the university committed to divestment.\footcite[][]{SimardLaval2017}\fnsep\footnote{This article also illustrates deliberate attempts to communicate and coordinate success strategies between CFFD campaigns. Simard explains that the article was written because of ``many messages asking one simple question: How did we make it happen?''}
This illustrates how the constellation of potential sufficient conditions for divestment is large and that initial institutional response may be a key explanatory factor in at least some cases.



\setstretch{1}
\subsection{H2: Some work done by campus fossil fuel divestment campaigns will be easily transferrable to comparable campaigns at other institutions, but such influence will generally be \emph{ad hoc} rather than coordinated between activist groups.}
\label{sec:H2}
\setstretch{2}



% Hadden: brokers are critical
Hadden's emphasis of the importance of brokers to the functioning of activist networks engaged in contentious forms of politics is likely applicable in the case of CFFD campaigns.\footcite[][]{Hadden2015}
These brokers include paid staff of \href{https://350.org}{350.org}, students who move between schools, and people who volunteer with local organizations and seek to coordinate their campaigning and instruct one another in techniques including public relations and both the training and implementation necessary for non-violent direct actions like the occupation of buildings (a tactic seen in some CFFD campaigns).
In the U.S., the Divestment Student Network is another set of CFFD brokers, whereas in Canada it is one role played by the Canadian Youth Climate Coalition.\footnote{\url{http://www.studentsdivest.org/}}\fnsep\footnote{\url{http://www.ourclimate.ca/}}
These are the most important nodes to try to understand between these activist networks and generating a plausible network analysis of the CFFD movement will likely depend on their cooperation, since internal dynamics of campaigns are rarely the subject of detailed reporting by the media or scholars.



% Who are the divestment brokers?
Whereas Hadden found Friends of the Earth to be an important source of connections between otherwise-disparate activist networks in the context of the UNFCCC climate negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009, it seems likely that \href{https://350.org}{350.org} is playing a similar role in CFFD activism in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere.
The focus on a global brokerage role is illustrated by how (as of February 2017) \href{https://350.org}{350.org} was seeking to hire an Africa Regional Team Leader; Arab World Senior Campaigner; Germany Campaigner; Global Organising \& Campaigning Trainer; Mobilisation Strategist; Senior Digital Campaigner, Brazil and Latin America; among others.\footnote{\url{https://350.org/jobs/}}
The skills they are seeking are also indicative, with any prospective Mobilisation Strategist needing ``[f]irst class project management skills, across international and multidisciplinary teams'' and ``cultural intelligence'' manifested as being ``truly interested in learning about different regions and able to articulate issues in a manner that bring people together to make progress''.\footnote{\url{https://350.org/jobs/?gh_jid=563419}}
\href{https://350.org}{350.org} also currently employs Isaac Astill as a divestment campaigner with 350 Australia; Richard Brooks as a ``North America Iconic Divestment Campaigns Coordinator''; Yossi Cadan as a global senior divestment campaigner; Beta Coronel as a ``US Reinvestment Coordinator''; Clémence Dubois as a France divestment campaigner; Cristina DuQue as a ``Southeast U.S. Divestment Campus Network Organizer''; Shin Furuno as a Japan divestment coordinator; Ellen Gibson as a U.K. divestment network coordinator; Tine Langkamp as a Germany divestment campaigner; Katie McChesney as a U.S. divestment campaign manager; Liset Meddens as a Netherlands divestment coordinator; Ahmed Mokgopo as a ``Africa Regional Divestment Campaigner''; Danielle Paffard as a U.K. divestment campaigner; Katie Rae Perfitt as a Canada divestment coordinator; and Christian Tengblad as a Sweden divestment campaigner.\footnote{\url{https://350.org/about/team/}}



% We must engage the brokers!
Given that interviews will be an important source of data, choosing research methods which will encourage the participation of brokers (and which will hopefully reward them with some useful broader perspective) will be an important part of the methodological design.
This may involve engaging with them at an early stage, devoting methodological attention to questions which they identify as highly relevant, and addressing any concerns they raise.
Hadden highlights how being a broker is not without risks and disadvantages: principally, that it can lead to situations where each organization or campaign where a broker is involved sees them as never being ``100 percent'' allies.\footcite[][p. 51-2]{Hadden2015}
In the CFFD context, this may be most applicable to divestment supporters with some institutional connection to the university, such as staff.



% Planted in the wrong soil
If H1, about path dependence, is correct it's possible that CFFD advocacy efforts at an institution where the institutional context reflexively acts against divestment may end up having stronger effects in institutions not directly targeted by the CFFD campaign but which have cultures and decision-making processes that make such proposals more likely to succeed.
Seeds initially planted in barren soil may germinate elsewhere, reinforcing the extent to which the networks of influence between social movement actors can have a critical effect on outcomes.



\setstretch{1}
\subsection{H3: Involvement in fossil fuel divestment campaigns will have mixed results for activists, with some becoming more enthusiastic and involved and others becoming dispirited and uninterested in further involvement.
Theories of change held by activists will shift from those focused on the power of rational argument (and perhaps mass actions like marches) to compel decision-makers to those focused on stakeholder and bureaucratic politics.}
\setstretch{2}



% Activists versus organizers; intersectionality; length and contentiousness
The particular role an individual played in a CFFD campaign likely affects what lessons they drew from it and how it changed their behaviour.
For instance, volunteers may experience different effects from organizers.
Following a convention used in some \href{https://350.org}{350.org} groups, I will be using ``activist'' and ``volunteer'' interchangeably to refer to anybody who has exerted some meaningful effort in a campaign, while ``organizers'' are those who have played a major coordinating role and directed the efforts of others.
Also, outcomes may differ for activists involved in CFFD campaigns exclusively, as opposed to those also involved in other environmental or social justice efforts (particularly if discussions about allyship and intersectionality were major features of the fossil fuel divestment campaign).
Other factors which might plausibly affect subsequent activist views and behaviours include the total length of the campaign, degree to which contentious tactics like sit-ins were employed, and the extent and nature of faculty involvement.\footcite[Notably, Swarthmore, where the whole CFFD movement began, has not so far opted to divest: ][]{tollefson2015fossil}\fnsep\footcite[][]{WaltersSwarthmore}\fnsep\footcite[][]{SchwartzSwarthmore}



% Group organization is important
Eric Hirsch's work emphasizes group structure, understood as including ``group-level political processes such as consciousness-raising, collective empowerment, polarization, and collective decision-making''.\footcite[][p. 243]{hirsch1990sacrifice}\fnsep\footcite[See also: ][]{hirsch1986creation}
In particular, he argues that political solidarity better explains the functioning of protest movements than rational choice or collective behaviour approaches: people participate in activism for social more than rational or narrowly individualistic reasons.\footcite[][p. 243]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
Hirch's empirical examples (including the anti-aparthied divestment campaign at Columbia) also bear a significant resemblance to CFFD groups, being comprised of ``close-knit groups of politically committed activists using carefully planned strategies and tactics''.\footcite[][p. 243, 246--52]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
Hadden echoes the claim that the internal structure of groups is relevant, citing the work of Sikkink and Hafner-Burton, Kahler, and Montgomery.\footcite[][p. 39]{Hadden2015}\fnsep\footcite[][]{sikkink2009power}\fnsep\footcite[][]{hafner2009network}



% Framing and the effect on activists
Joe Curnow and Allyson Gross argue that the framing selected by CFFD campaigns affects the subsequent thinking of activists, arguing that integrating a climate justice frame (as opposed to a scientific, financial, or numerical one) ``has the potential to shape a generation of activists to be more attentive to the racialized, classed, and gendered impacts of climate change, as well as the ways that racialization, colonialism, class, and gender influence the ways we do activism, the strategies we choose, the voices we hear and amplify, and the fights we invest in''.\footcite[][p. 375]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
The prominence of climate justice framing and these kinds of intersectionality issues likely varies between CFFD campaigns and may have explanatory power for explaining the subsequent work of activists.
It is also worth noting that the appropriateness and desirable implementation of a climate justice frame are both contested within CFFD campaigns, and that disagreements about allyship and intersectionality may be one of the most recurring and emotionally charged form of internal disagreement.



% Studying conflict might be useful, but it raises the greatest research subject protection issues
One variable which may help explain outcomes for activist themselves is the prevalence of interpersonal conflict within CFFD campaigns.
This likely influences what groups choose to do when their petitions fail or succeed, what other organizations activists subsequently work with, and how active organizers remain overall on climate change issues.
The highest degree of research subject protection will need to be maintained regarding any material deemed confidential by participants.
A clear policy will be necessary regarding any instances which I might need to report to law enforcement (such as an activists involvement in criminal activity).
Part of the letter explaining the research ethics protocol to interview subjects will be a description of our policy on confidentiality in the face of lawful requests, such as a court order.
I would consider any such outcome a lot more likely in the case of anti-pipeline activists, but it is worth planning for in this context as well.
If interviewing subjects about acts of civil disobedience --- the willful and open, non-violent violation of the law for a political or moral purpose --- I will be clear that I don't want to be told about any past, planned, or possible criminal acts aside from acts of civil disobedience, potentially including property destruction, etc.
As a measure to mitigate the chances any such official request is made, and protecting subjects in case any research materials are authorized by either legal of clandestine means.



% Psychology of activists
The psychological state of activists seems like a variable that, if it could be ethically tracked, would reveal something about the cycle of activist action, media response, political response (including seeing populist governments appointing heads of important environmental protection organizations normally more insulated from partisan politics, and seeing long periods in which major democracies are governed by parties which are not making emission cuts a priority or who are actively promoting fossil fuel production), and the slow physical unrolling of the consequences of unchecked fossil fuel use, made emotionally salient by neverending news about ice sheets cracking up and temperature records being set.
Tzeporah Berman raises some important points about the relevance of morale to both the extent to which an individual suffers anxiety from their concerns about uncontrolled climate change and to the kind of behaviours they undertake in response:
\begin{quote}
``Often when we talk about global warming and climate change, people's default reaction is guilt. And that makes sense because ultimately it is our lifestyle and our dependence on fossil fuels that have created the problem. So people automatically think, \emph{Oh my God, I've got to change the light bulbs, I've got to walk to work, I've got to save for a hybrid. It's my fault, it's all my fault.}


What we see in social movement theory and psychological studies is that if a problem is so big that it cannot be easily understood, or the risks are overwhelming, people will make some changes to their lifestyle but try to forget about the actual problem. You're walking to work once a week, you're using canvas bags for groceries, but the problem is getting worse. So eventually you get off your soapbox and go back to ``normal'' life.'' (emphasis in original)\footcite[][]{Berman2012}\fnsep\footnote{This analysis corresponds with Lindsey Doe's summary of Leon Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance: faced with dissonance between their own beliefs and their behaviour, people are more likely to change their belief than the contradictory behaviour.}\fnsep\footcite[][]{Festinger1957}\fnsep\footcite[][]{festinger1959cognitive}
\end{quote}
The note she strikes about futility is especially resonant in the context of climate change activism --- you can never know a proposed bitumen sands pipeline has been stopped forever, and most campus divestment proposals have been rejected.
This places the concept of ``cycles of contention'' within the year-to-year experience of climate change activists.
Nonetheless, even rejected divestment proposals constitute active resistance, and when divestment has been used as a tactic in other social movements (resisting apartheid in the South African context, tobacco regulation advocacy, the arms trade, BDS, etc), the first attempt at various universities and other institutional investors was not sufficient to produce a change in policy, yet the strength of campaigns were able to grow across time as sentiment in the general population more gradually shifted.
This also relates to the second major campaign of \href{https://350.org}{350.org}: opposition to fossil fuel pipelines.
While every temporarily-rejected pipeline proposal has the potential for resurrection, simply complicating and elongating the approval process and threatening to do so for other pipeline proposals somewhat discourages pipeline proponents and their financial backers from developing new fossil fuel infrastructure.
At the worst, such campaigns fail while daring greatly.



\section{Place in the literature}
% Submit to Olive by 2017-02-28



% Lit review contents
First, I will summarize some of the political science literature that pertains most directly to this project, especially the social movements literature.
I will then specifically discuss how the literature relates to my research question and hypotheses.
The literature examined here is drawn from discussions with committee members and others within the department, the core Canadian and public policy reading lists, branching out from initial sources to their own references, and a search of scholarly databases undertaken with the assistance of the political science librarian at Robarts.
The principal databased used were WorldWide Political Science Abstracts, PAIS International, Sociological Abstracts, and FRANCIS (Humanities \& Social Sciences).\footnote{These databases include surprisingly little information about divestment campaigns at U~of~T, with WorldWide Political Science Abstracts yielding one article (ambiguously authored by either P. Rosentrial or P. Rosenthal, 1986, full text unavailable) about South Africa and one article by Avi Weinryb (2008) about BDS. PAIS International yields only one article in The Nation (Horowitz) about BDS.}



\subsection{Literature on divestment}



% Origins
In October 2011, Swarthmore Mountain Justice began calling for Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania to divest from the fossil fuel industry --- specifically from firms engaged in mountaintop removal coal mining.
Their campaign eventually escalated into a 32-day occupation of the college's administrative building.\footcite[][p. 367]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
A webpage on \href{http://www.swarthmore.edu/}{swarthmore.edu} explains:
\begin{quote}
``The national fossil fuel divestment movement started at Swarthmore with the student group Swarthmore Mountain Justice. In 2010, a group of students traveled to West Virginia on their spring and fall breaks to learn about mountaintop removal coal mining and its effects on the communities of Appalachia. Back at Swarthmore, the students ``decided on a divestment campaign as a way for us to use the power and position we have as students to move our institution’s money to stop funding practices that harm people’s health and communities.''  The fossil fuel divestment campaign, picked up and expanded by 350.org and others, has become one of the best-known organized responses to climate change''.\footcite[][]{DivestmentDebates}
\end{quote}
\href{https://350.org}{350.org} subsequently identified fossil fuel divestment as a promising strategy which could be replicated in many different institutional contexts by local campaigns affiliated with but not controlled or funded by the NGO.\footcite[See: ][p. 353--8]{Klein2014}
Bill McKibben issued a stirring call to arms in Rolling Stone in 2011, highlighting the effectiveness of divestment in the fight against South African apartheid in the 1980s, calling for a campaign to ``weaken \ldots\ the fossil-fuel industry's political standing'', and explaining that humanity needs to ``keep 80 percent of those [fossil fuel] reserves locked away underground to avoid'' catastrophic climate change.\footcite[][]{TerrifyingNewMath}
This was followed up by \href{https://350.org}{350.org}'s Do The Math tour in November 2012, which framed climate change numerically, as a disjoint between the total amount of fossil fuel that can be burned without unacceptable climatic effects and the known size of global fossil fuel reserves.\footcite[][p. 372--3]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
The appeal was broadly taken up, particularly in Australia, Canada, Europe, and the United States.
These campus campaigns are sometimes branded with ``350'', as with UofT350.org.
Sometimes, they use ``fossil free'' branding, as with ULaval sans fossiles.\footnote{One criticism of \href{https://350.org}{350.org}'s metastasized campaigns has been that they lack the direct connection to affected communities which prompted the initial Swarthmore effort.}



% Existing scholarly literature on campus fossil fuel divestment
Work by Jessica Grady-Benson and Brinda Sarathy speaks to many of the concerns of this project in a U.S. context.
With a methodology combining participant observation with surveys and interviews, they found that universities with smaller endowments and ``institutional values of environmental sustainability and social justice'' were more likely to divest, and that concern about financial responsibility and effectiveness are emphasized in many administration arguments against divestment.\footcite[][p. 673]{grady2016fossil}
They also found that divestment campaign participants develop a long-term commitment to organizing and were encouraged by their involvement to move beyond ``individualised sustainability efforts'' and into collective political action which focuses on climate change as a social justice issue.\footcite[][p. 667]{grady2016fossil}\fnsep\footcite[Grady-Benson also wrote her B.A. thesis on the topic: ][]{GradyBenson2014}
Chelsie Hunt, Olaf Weber, and Truzaar Dordi undertook a comparative analysis of the anti-Apartheid and CFFD movements.\footcite[][]{hunt2016comparative}
[TK --- More on their results]
[TK --- Alexander, Nicholson, and Wiseman]\footcite[][]{alexander2014fossil}
[TK --- Ayling and Gunningham]\footcite[][]{ayling2015non}
Eric L. Hirsch's work emphasizes social factors and group organization in the recruitment and commitment level of activists, specifically in the Columbia University anti-apartheid divestment campaign in 1985.\footcite[][]{hirsch1990sacrifice}



% Other on-campus divestment
There is some scholarly literature about both historical divestment campaigns targeting things like apartheid in South Africa and the tobacco industry, as well as ongoing non-fossil divestment proposals like the BDS campaign targeting Israel.
[TK --- South Africa and tobacco]
% Tobacco
% South Africa
[TK --- Find text of Rosenthal / Rosentrial 1986 ``The University of Toronto and South Africa'', which apparently discusses ``the reaction on campus to the university's decision against divestment of holdings of companies with investments in South Africa'']
% BDS
A November 2000 lecture at Illinois State University had international law professor Francis Boyle propose the use of an anti-apartheid-style campaign against Israel at U.S. universities.\footcite[][p. 241]{MorrisonInGerges}
This led to the establishment of Students for Justice in Palestine and a BDS effort at Berkeley, with a petition circulated in 2002 and a national student conference.\footcite[][p. 241]{MorrisonInGerges}
Further on-campus BDS campaigns began in 2002 with efforts at Harvard and MIT, and broadened after 2005 when 170 Palestinian civil society organizations issued a public call to action.\footcite[][p. 59--60]{WilesBDS2013}\fnsep\footcite[][p. 113]{Nelson2016BDS}
Suzanne Morrison identifies ``the Oslo process, changes in Palestinian civil society, and the ruling by the International Court of Justice in 2004 on Israel's wall'' as important contextual factors that shaped the movement.\footcite[][p. 229]{MorrisonInGerges}
By 2004, there were active BDS campaigns on over 40 U.S. campuses.\footcite[][p. 241]{MorrisonInGerges}
BDS resolutions have been successfully passed at the University of California, Northwestern, Oberlin, Stanford, Wesleyan, and other U.S. schools, though these student resolutions have not actually produced divestment by university administrations.\footcite[][p. 113]{Nelson2016BDS}
According to Avi Weinryb, U~of~T was the first institution to hold an ``Israel Apartheid Week'', beginning in 2004.\footcite[][]{weinryb2008issue}
As Tarrow discusses, the 2010 attempted civil society flotilla to Gaza (which prompted an Israeli military response) led to an uptick in BDS activism, including a divestment campaign attempted in Britain by UNITE.\footcite[][p. 2--3]{tarrow2011power}
A similar dynamic was observed in response to ``Operation Cast Lead'', a previous Israeli military campaign in Gaza.\footcite[][]{bakan2009palestinian}



% Consequences of BDS for CFFD
Ongoing BDS campaigns seem to have had an effect on institutional responses to CFFD campaigns, both by making administrations concerned about the effect of a fossil fuel precedent and by associating divestment tactics generally with highly controversial campaigns.
The BDS campaign contrasts most sharply with CFFD campaigns in terms of the visibility of opposition.
While fossil fuel divestment opponents have generally used private channels to try to influence university decision-makers, those opposing BDS have been much more willing to present a public argument and lobby openly.
Also, in contrast to the financial argument for fossil fuel divestment, BDS campaigns are justified using political rather than financial arguments.\footcite[][p. 109]{Nelson2016BDS}
On-campus BDS campaigns have also targeted universities specifically because of their perceived role as socially-conscious thought leaders in society.\footcite[See: ``BDS Resolutions on Campus: Their Long-Term Goal'' and ``Divestment Campaigns'' in: ][p. 93--5, 109--15]{Nelson2016BDS}
BDS resolutions are intended to ``create discussion, generate publicity, and attract attention'' and ``spearhead a public relations/propaganda campaign focused on the delegitimization and demonization of Israel'', a tactic some criticize as counterproductive''.\footcite[][p. 94, 109]{Nelson2016BDS}
The BDS movement is also self-conscious about its relationship to previous social movements.
For instance, Kali Akuno has situated it in terms of the civil rights and black liberation movements in the U.S., particularly after the 1960s.\footcite[][p. 47--58]{AkunoInWiles}
In the forward to the volume, Archbishop Desmond Tutu stresses the similarity of the South African and Palestianian cases, saying the latter ``bears such remarkable parallels with the struggle of the Palestinian people for their freedom from the oppression and injustice imposed on them by successive Israeli governments'', commenting also on the ``almost \ldots\ Pavlovian conditioned response'' whereby critics of Israel are called anti-Semetic.\footcite[][p. xiii]{WilesBDS2013}
The South African connection is also highlighted in the 2005 call from 170 Palestinian civil society institutions, which calls for ``broad boycotts and \ldots\ divestment initiatives against Israel similar to those applied to South Africa in the apartheid era''.\footcite[][p. 62]{WilesBDS2013}
Scholarship on BDS is largely located within the social movements and contentious politics literature, making particular use of Charles Tilly, Sidney Tarrow, and Doug McAdam.\footcite[See: ][p. 547--8, 550--1]{Gerges2015BDS}\fnsep\footcite[][p. 229--55]{MorrisonInGerges}




% Off-campus divestment
It's important to interpret campus fossil fuel divestment within the broader climate change divestment movement.
In early May 2017, \href{https://350.org}{350.org} is helping to coordinate efforts in Australia and New Zealand to encourage a major bank to divest; trying to encourage investors in Japan, China and South Korea to divest; pressuring European universities, cities, churches, pension funds, and museums (including the Louvre and the Nobel Foundation); supporting vigils for climate change victims to encourage divestment in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay; and pushing for the University of Cape Town and Stellenbosch University, along with the city of Cape Town to divest.
[TK --- Cite as 2017-02-22 email from Jenny Zapata López]
Among the fossil fuel divestment commitments in the gofossilfree.org database, a large fraction have been made by faith organizations --- a potentially illuminating parallel to the campus efforts.\footcite[See also: ``BDS and Christian Churches'' in: ][p. 66--72]{Nelson2016BDS}
Medical organizations have also divested from fossil fuels, including the British Medical Association, Canadian Medical Association, and World Medical Association.\footcite[On the Canadian Medical Association, see: ][]{HaleCMA2014}
Scholarly analysis of fossil fuel divestment for institutional investors more broadly includes the work of Justin Richie and Hadi Dowlatabadi, which emphasizes the financial as well as the moral case for divestment.\footcite[][]{ritchie2015divest}
Notably, all previous on-campus divestment efforts had some kind of off-campus manifestation.
For instance, Kenneth M. Bond evaluated whether U.S. corporations had a moral obligation to participate in South African divestment.\footcite[][]{bond1988stay}



\subsection{Environmental activism}



% Contemporary environmental activism
There is also a broad literature on contemporary environmentalism, tactics and strategy, and alliances with other causes.
For instance, in a short case study on the Tar Sands Blockade campaign to stop construction of the Keystone XL pipeline in Texas, Will Wooten discusses how the pipeline activists coordinated with groups like Occupy Wall Street and YourAnonNews and claims:
\begin{quote}
``To reach such a variety of groups and concerns we connected our fight with theirs, talking about their issues as well as our own. Our fight for climate justice is tied with racial justice, with environmental justice, with patriarchy and class struggle. This is the larger story we are telling and social media is a megaphone we use to connect the dots.'' [CITE]
\end{quote}
While they have contemporary expression, these ideas are not new.
In a speech with a surprising degree of relevance to the fossil fuel divestment movement, Martin Luther King Jr. emphasized the need for an ``international coalition of socially aware forces'' able to ``form a solid, united movement, non-violently conceived and carried through, so that pressure can be brought to bear on capital and government power structures concerned, from both sides of the problem at once''.\footcite[][p. 207]{MLK1967}\fnsep\footcite[Stances on violence and property destruction have been an important source of internal disagreement within environmental and climate change activist movements. For example, see: ][p. 132]{Hadden2015}
King goes on to discuss efforts to coordinate an economic embargo campaign against the apartheid government of South Africa.
Perhaps the most fundamental tension and axis of disagreement in contemporary environmental and climate change activism is whether each movement can succeed as a reform movement, as a radical movement, as both, or neither.
Groups engaged in environmentalist activity must therefore find ways to mediate between activists who disagree on these questions, whether by fragmenting and requiring a particular perspective from their members or by `agreeing to disagree' while pursuing commonly-desirable objectives.



% Social movements literature
\subsection{Social movements}



% Definitions
The principle literature which can be drawn upon to better understand the fossil fuel divestment movement --- and where analysis of divestment can most plausibly make a theoretical contribution --- is in the study of social movements.
Many previous social movements have relevance for understanding what is happening in response to climate change today.
Social movements are broadly defined by Manuel Castells as: ``purposive collective actions whose outcome, in victory as in defeat, transforms the values and institutions of society''.\footcite[][p. xix]{Smith2014}
Alternatively, in his 1908 Nobel Prize lecture, Rudolf Eucken described how:
\begin{quote}
``The social movement, too, reveals man as not entirely limited by a given order, but as a being that perceives and judges a given situation as is confident that it can change it essentially by its own efforts.'' \footcite[][p. 53]{White2016}
\end{quote}
William Gamson calls social movements ``one product of social disorganization'' and ``symptoms of a social system in trouble''.\footcite[][p. 53]{White2016}\fnsep\footcite[See also: ][]{Goldstone1980}
Tarrow distinguishes social movements from political parties and advocacy groups, defining them as ``collective challenges, based on common purposes and social solidarities, in sustained interaction with elites, opponents, and authorities''.\footcite[][p. 9]{tarrow2011power}\fnsep\footcite[See also:][]{tarrow1989struggle}
Tilley defines social movements in terms of their behaviour --- specifically, ``contentious performances'' chosen from within the repertoire of particular activist groups in order to match local circumstances.\footcite[][p. 18]{tilly2008contentious}\fnsep\footcite[See also: ][]{Tilley1978}
This explanation seems particularly apt in the case of CFFD for two reasons.
First, divestment campaigns are self-consciously comprised of statements and actions designed with particular audiences and thought/behaviour changes in mind, making a performance-based conception suitable.
Second, as a collective effort defined at an international level by groups like \href{https://350.org}{350.org}, divestment is an object case of tuning activist repertoires for campaigns targeting specific institutions.



% Intro to social movements
Social movements are connected both historically and theoretically with the question of how large-scale social and political change occurs, whether voluntary human actions can induce it, and what factors contribute to whether one group or another achieves its aims.
Social movements are distinguished from other forms of political organization largely because of the informal relations between participants who share a sense of collective purpose, unlike, for instance, governments or corporations.
The academic study of social movements largely began within sociology, but later formed a disciplinary subfield within political science.\footcite[][]{dellaPortaSocialMovements}
Subsequent sociological research on social movements involved pre-fossil fuel divestment campaigns as case studies.\footcite[][]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
Work on social movements has also taken place within organizational studies, education, environmental studies, and law and society.\footcite[][p. 1]{McAdamBoudet}
% Wikipedia: Important contributors in the field include sociologists such as Alain Touraine, Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Claus Offe, Immanuel Wallerstein, Manuel Castells or philosophers such as Michel Foucault, Jürgen Habermas and Félix Guattari.



% Development of social movement literature
Work in the 1970s by scholars including Tilly, Tarrow, and McAdam developed a political process approach within the theory of social movements.
This perspective emphasizes changing opportunities and constraints leading to changes in institutionalized politics and the ideological views of elites.
Their work in the field continued until the present, with Tilly, Tarrow, and McAdam's 2001 \emph{Dynamics of Contention} updating earlier ideas.\footcite[][p. 229--30, 237--8]{MorrisonInGerges}
In the mid-1960s and 1970s, a literature on ``new social movements'' examined post-1960 movements defined by a postmaterialist focus, as opposed to one defined by class conflict, and which often employed unconventional political tactics like protest.\footcite[][]{kriesi1995new}\fnsep\footcite[On the emergence of postmaterialist values, see: ][p. 991--1017]{inglehart1971silent}
These movements shared the defining feature of informal relations with prior social movements, but were distinguished in part because they often focused on social changes in lifestyle or culture, such as the changing role of women in society or tolerance for LGBTQ lifestyles.
Notably, work in the 1980s emphasized culture, ideology, and ideas and the extent to which they ``inform agency'', as well as ``the extent to which social movements are involved in the production of and struggle over meanings''.\footcite[][p. 247]{MorrisonInGerges}\fnsep\footcite[][p. 136]{SnowBenfordInMorris}
Tarrow contended that mobilizing structures ``bring people together in the field, shape coalitions, confront opponents, and assure their own future after the exhilarating peak of the movement has passed''.\footcite[][p. 123]{tarrow2011power}
A variety of journals focus specifically on social movements, including Research in Social Movements, Conflict, and Change (established in 1977); International Social Movement Research (1988) and Social Movement Studies (2002).



% Contentious politics
The literature on contentious politics expands the social movement literature with an emphasis on collective social interactions between decision-makers and those seeking to pressure them, taking place in public and applicable to historical developments including the transition of states to democratic governance, ethnic conflict, revolution, and social movements including feminism and environmentalism



% Environmentalism as a social movement
Peter Dauvergne emphasizes the diversity of environmentalism as a social movement:
\begin{quote}
``Environmentalism will always be a ``movement of movements,'' with a great diversity of values and visions surfacing out of a turbulent sea of informal groupings and formal organizations.''\footcite[][p. 6--7]{Dauvergne2016}
\end{quote}
Specifically, he emphasizes disagreements about the appropriate role for markets; whether technology can solve environmental problems; the desirability of economic growth; the plausibility of eco-consumerism and corporate social responsibility as solutions; pragmatic versus radical theories of change; and different conceptualizations of the environment as a necessary support for humanity or as something with inherent value.
A common theme in environmentalist organizations has been the emergence of disagreeing factions, leading to splits and the emergence of confrontational groups like the Earthforce Environmental Society in 1977 (renamed the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society) and Earth First! in 1979.\footcite[][p. 104--6]{Dauvergne2016}\fnsep\footcite[][p. 206]{Klein2014}
As Dauvergne notes, the phrase ``movement of movements'' ties environmentalism to ``global resistance to capitalism and globalization'', highlighting the complex ways in which the analysis and policy preferences of those in overlapping movements interact.\footcite[][p. 154--5]{Dauvergne2016}
In earlier work with Jennifer Clapp, he developed a broad typology of environmentalists as market liberals, institutionalists, social greens, and bioenvironmentalists.\footcite[][]{ClappDauvergne2011}\fnsep\footcite[The category of ``liberal environmentalists'' who favour markets and believe existing political and economic systems can address problems including climate change is attributed to: ][]{Bernstein2001}
Diversity in the core beliefs of environmental activists is also central to the debate about advocating climate policy using either a scientific or a justice framing.\footcite[This is central to Hadden's analysis of conventional climate advocacy versus climate justice activism.][p. 45, 89--113, 114--141]{Hadden2015}\fnsep\footnote{[TK --- Robert Benford and David Snow on collective action frames / Erving Goffman on frames as ``schemata of interpretation''.]}
The relationship between environmentalism and corporate capitalism is also a major subject of contention in non-academic writing about environmentalism and political change.
Naomi Klein devotes a significant portion of \emph{This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate} to arguing that the major environmental organizations have been co-opted by corporations and lost their ability to take adequate action in response to climate change.\footcite[][p. 191--229]{Klein2014}\fnsep\footcite[Klein is especially vitriolic about oil and gas production which The Nature Conservancy allowed in an ecological preserve starting in 1999, and where subsequently the main species being protected died off by 2012.][p. 192--5]{Klein2014}



% Related social movements
Scholarly literature on previous social movements which sought wide-scale political and economic change is relevant to the analysis of the CFFD movement.
% Abolition
The movement to abolish slavery in the United States and elsewhere challenged the existing economic system in a way that bears some relation to what ending fossil fuel use rapidly enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change does today, with some similar social and political consequences.
The two movements also share a broad ethical focus on what kinds of duties human beings bear toward one another, and at what point the harm you are causing to others compels you to change your behaviour.
% Feminism, civil rights, gay rights
In terms of involving a concerted effort to rapidly and profoundly shift public opinion and public policy, there are also parallels with the feminist, civil rights, and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans- and Queer (\acronym{LGBTQ}) rights movements.
These movements also involved major questions about allyship and intersectionality, and the ways in which progressive efforts on one front ought to be done through a joint campaign for other progressive causes.
As with feminism, climate change activism emphasizes how `personal' choices have society-wide political consequences, and both raise questions about how to handle that politically.\footnote{George H.W. Bush's 1992 comment at the Rio summit that ``The American way of life is not up for negotiation'' is illustrative.}



% CFFD as youth activism
A final frame that bears consideration is emphasizing CFFD as activism as undertaken specifically by youth.
While faculty and others have been participants in CFFD campaigns, they are almost universally described as student-driven.
This is likely relevant to the effect of participation in CFFD campaigns on participants, in part because of evidence that political activities undertaken early in life are likely to be formative and habitual.
Divestment as youth activism also connects to intergenerational justice and climate change.
As moral philosophers like Henry Shue and Stephen Gardiner emphasize, much of the weight of considerations about climate justice comes from the unidirectional impact our choices will have on a large number of subsequent generations.\footcite[][]{Gardiner2010}\fnsep\footcite[][]{gardiner2011perfect}
It further relates to one major theory of why governments have been so ineffective at implementing their promises regarding reductions in greenhouse gas pollution: they are led and influenced largely by older people who won't personally feel the worst impacts of climate change.




\subsection{The literature, my research question, and my hypotheses}



[TK --- To be fleshed out following 2017-03-02 meeting with Andrea Olive]



At the most basic level, this project will apply existing conceptual frameworks on social movements and contentious politics to the new empirical case of campus fossil fuel divestment activism.
The project is nonetheless connected to questions with the potential to make a novel theoretical conclusion, particularly in terms of coalition-forming and its effects on the deep core beliefs of activists and on the impact of participation in CFFD campaigns on the theories of change of activists and organizers.



% Institutional responses
Questions about institutional decision-making in response to activist demands probably fit most readily into the mainstream of political science theory, with rationalist accounts competing with historical institutionalist explanations, including stakeholder and bureaucratic politics.
Resource mobilization theories may be useful for analyzing efforts by CFFD campaigns to mobilize on-campus support, as well as efforts to seek endorsements and other aid from alumni and donors.\footcite[See: ][]{mccarthy1977resource}



% Effects on other institutions
Inter-institutional effects between CFFD campaigns and schools responding to them can be interpreted with the help of political science literature on issue emergence, networks, organizational learning, and norm diffusion.
This project would contribute to the comparative work called for by Hadden, regarding how activist network structures affect performance and how context affects when tactics are complimentary as opposed to incompatible.\footcite[][p. 167--8]{Hadden2015}



% Effects on participants - Anti-colonial / decolonizing
Curnow and Gross argue that ``students' attempts to bridge the dominant frames of divestment and climate justice demonstrate the hard work facing the climate movement today and indicate how underequipped settler students are to take on anticolonial and decolonizing work as part of the environmental movement''.\footcite[][p. 378]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
They are arguably being too quick to judge that the entire CFFD or climate change activist movement is shifting in this direction, possibly by virtue of taking self-selected participants in certain planning forums as indicative of the whole movement, though there has certainly been substantial effort expended in alliance-building with indigenous communities and non-climate social justice movements.
In particular, while general acceptance of the relevance of a climate justice frame may be increasingly widespread, disagreement persists on both a normative and strategic level about how to practically implement such ideas into CFFD organizing.
Hadden also emphasizes ``normative contestation'' and the climate justice frame as central to the ``current energy in the climate change movement''.\footcite[][p. 175]{Hadden2015}
While this can be interpreted primarily about efforts to change thinking outside the movement --- making ``coal the new cigarettes'' --- contestation is also occurring within the movement as people collaborate and argue about strategies and alliances.\footcite[Hadden cites a range of scholarly analyses of conflict and division among activists.][p. 39]{Hadden2015}



\setstretch{1}
\subsection{Key texts}



\subsubsection{Social movements}



\begin{description}
	\item[Betsill, Michele] \emph{Greens in the Greenhouse: Environmental NGOs, Norms and the Politics of Global Climate Change.} 2000.
	\item [Davis, Gerald F et al. eds] \emph{Social Movements and Organization Theory.} Cambridge University Press. 2005.
	\item [Goldstone, Jack A. ed] \emph{States, Parties, and Social Movements.} Cambridge University Press. 2003.
	\item[Hadden, Jennifer] ``Explaining Variation in Transnational Climate Change Activism: The Role of Inter-Movement Spillover.'' \emph{Global Environmental Politics.} 2014. 14 (2): 7--25
	\item[Ingold, Karin and Manuel Fischer] ``Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years.'' \emph{Global Environmental Change.} Volume 24, January 2014, p. 88--98
	\item[Jackson, John L.] ``The Symbolic Politics of Divestment: Protest Effectiveness on US. College and University Campuses.'' Paper presented at the NEH Seminar Symposium. Cornell University. 1992.
	\item[McAdam, Doug and Hilary Boudet] \emph{Putting Social Movements in their Place: Explaining Opposition to Energy Projects in the United States, 2000–2005.} Cambridge University Press. 2012.
	\item[Stroup, S. S.] 2012. \emph{Borders among Activists: International NGOs in the United States, Britain, and France.} Cornell University Press.
	\item[Seidman, G. W.] ``Divestment dynamics: Mobilizing, shaming, and changing the rules.'' Social Research. 82(4). 2015.
	\item[Soule, Sarah A.] ``The student divestment movement in the United States and tactical diffusion: The shantytown protest.'' Social Forces. 1997.
	\item[Soule, Sarah A.] ``The Student Anti-Apartheid Movement in the United States: Diffusion of Tactics and Policy Reform.'' Ph.D. dissertation. Cornell University. 1995.
	\item[Tarrow, Sidney] \emph{The New Transnational Activism.} Cambridge University Press. 2007.
	\item[Wong, Wendy] ``The Organization of Non-state Actors: Varieties of Linkages between Structures and Agents.''
	\item[Wong, Wendy] 2012. \emph{Internal affairs: How the structure of NGOs transforms human rights.} Cornell University Press.
\end{description}



Networks:
\begin{description}
	\item [True, Jacqui  and Michael Mintrom] ``Transnational Networks and Policy diffusion: The Case of Gender Mainstreaming.'' International Studies Quarterly 45 (March 2001), 27-58.
	\item [Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. and Alexander H. Montgomery] ``International Organizations, Social Networks, and Conflict.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution 50/1 (February 2006), 3-27.
	\item [Keck, Margaret and Kathryn Sikkink] \emph{Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics}, (Cornell University Press, 1998)
	\item [Marin, Bernd and Renate Mayntz, eds.] 1991. \emph{Policy Networks, Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Considerations.} Boulder: Westview Press. (Especially chapter by Schneider and Kenis.)
	\item [Dowding, Keith] 1995. ``Model or Metaphor? A Critical Review of the Policy Network Approach.'' Political Studies, 43: 136-58.
	\item [Hay, C.] 1998. ``The tangled webs we weave: the discourse, strategy and practice of networking,'' in D. Marsh (ed.) \emph{Comparing policy networks.} Buckingham: Open University Press.
	\item [Borzel, Tanja A.] 1998. ``Organizing Babylon --- on the Different Conceptions of Policy Networks.'' Public Administration 76: 263-73.
	\item [Thatcher, Mark.] 1998. ``The Development of Policy Network Analyses: From Modest Origins to Overarching Frameworks.'' Journal of Theoretical Politics, 10, 4: 389-416.
	\item [Marsh, David and Martin Smith] 2000. ``Understanding Policy Networks: Towards a Dialectical Approach.'' Political Studies 48: 4-21.
	\item [Howlett, Michael.] 2002. ``Do Networks Matter? Linking Policy Network Structure to Policy Outcomes: Evidence from Four Canadian Policy Sectors 1990-2000.'' Canadian Journal of Political Science 35, 2: 235-67.
	\item [Skogstad, Grace.]  2008. ``Policy Networks and Policy Communities: Conceptualizing State-Societal Relationships in the Policy Process'' in \emph{The Comparative Turn in Canadian Politics.} Eds. Linda A. White, Richard Simeon, Robert Vipond and Jennifer Wallner. Vancouver: UBC Press.
	\item [Ward, Michael D., Katherine Stovel, and Audrey Sacks.] 2011. ``Network Analysis and Political Science.'' Annual Review of Political Science 14: 245-264.]
	\item [Paterson, Matthew, Matthew Hoffmann, Michele Betsill, and Steven Bernstein] 2014. ``The Micro Foundations of Policy Diffusion Toward Complex Global Governance: An Analysis of the Transnational Carbon Emission Trading Network.'' Comparative Political Studies 47, 3: 420-449.
\end{description}



Issue emergence:
\begin{description}
	\item[Carpenter, R. C.] 2007. ``Setting the advocacy agenda: Theorizing issue emergence and nonemergence in transnational advocacy networks.'' International Studies Quarterly, 51(1), 99-120.
	\item[Carpenter, R. C.] 2011. ``Vetting the advocacy agenda: network centrality and the paradox of weapons norms.'' International Organization, 65(01), 69-102.
	\item[Birkland, Thomas A.] 1998. ``Focusing Events, Mobilization and Agenda Setting.'' Journal of Public Policy 18, 1: pp. 53-74.
	\item[Cohen, M., March, J, and Olsen, J.] 1972. ``A garbage can model of organizational choice.'' Administrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25.
	\item[Durant, R., and Diehl, P.] 1989. ``Agendas, alternatives, and public policy: Lessons from the U.S. foreign policy arena.'' Journal of Public Policy, 9, 179-205.
	\item[Baumgartner F.R. and B.D. Jones.] 1993. \emph{Agendas and Instability in American Politics.} University of Chicago Press. (Especially chapters 1 and 3.)
	\item[Kingdon, John.] 1995. \emph{Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies.} Boston: Harper Collins, chapters 1, 4 and 8.]
\end{description}



Framing:
\begin{description}
	\item[Goffman, E.] \emph{Frame Analysis: An Essay on the Organization of Experience.} Havard University Press; Cambridge. 1974.
	\item[Snow, David A., and Robert D. Benford.] ``Master Frames and Cycles of Protest.'' in \emph{Frontiers in Social Movement Theory}. Aldon D. Morris and Carol McClurg Mueller. Yale University Press. 1992.
	\item[Snow, D. and Robert Benford] ``Ideology, Frame Resonance, and Participant Mobilization.'' International Social Movement Research. 1999.
\end{description}




\subsubsection{Contentious politics}



\begin{description}
	\item[della Porta, Donatella] \emph{Where Did the Revolution Go? Contentious Politics and the Quality of Democracy.} Cambridge University Press. Forthcoming.
	\item[Diani, Mario] \emph{The Cement of Civil Society: Studying Networks in Localities.} Cambridge University Press. 2015
	\item[Hadden, Jennifer] \emph{Networks in Contention: The Divisive Politics of Climate Change.} Cambridge University Press. 2015.
	\item[McAdam, Doug] \emph{Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930--1970.} University Of Chicago Press. 1999. 
	\item[McAdam, Doug, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly] \emph{Dynamics of Contention.} Cambridge University Press. 2005.
	\item[Meyer, David S. and Debra C. Minkoff] ``Conceptualizing Political Opportunity.'' \emph{Social Forces.} 82 (4): 1457--1492
	\item[Tarrow, Sidney] \emph{Power in Movement: Social Movements and Contentious Politics.} Cambridge University Press. 2011.
	\item[Tarrow, Sidney] \emph{The Language of Contention Revolutions in Words, 1688–2012.} Cambridge University Press. 2013.
	\item[Tilly, Charles] \emph{From Mobilization to Revolution.} Addison-Wesley. 1978
	\item[Tilley, Charles and Sidney Tarrow] \emph{Contentious Politics.} Oxford University Press. 2015.
	\item[Wood, Lesley J.] \emph{Direct Action, Deliberation, and Diffusion: Collective Action after the WTO Protests in Seattle.} Cambridge University Press. 2012.
\end{description}



Climate change activism
\begin{description}
	\item[Endres, Danielle and Sprain, Leah M and Peterson, Tarla Rai] \emph{Social movement to address climate change: Local steps for global action.} Cambria Press, 2009.
	\item[Helferty, A. and Clarke, A.] ``Student-led campus climate change initiatives in Canada.'' International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education. 10 (3). 2009.
	\item[Jacobs, Michael] ``High pressure for low emissions: How civil society created the Paris climate agreement.'' Juncture. 22 (4). 2016.
	\item[Mitchell, Timothy] \emph{Carbon Democracy: Political Power in the Age of Oil.} Verso. 2013.
	\item[Thomas Black, S., Anthony Milligan, R., and Heynen, N.] ``Solidarity in Climate/Immigrant justice direct action: Lessons from movements in the US south.'' International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 40(2). 2016.
\end{description}



Youth activism
\begin{description}
	\item[Booker, A.] ``Framing youth civil participation: Technical, pragmatic and political learning'' in L. Lin, H. Varenne, and E. W. Gordon eds. Educating Comprehensively: Varieties of Educational Experiences. Edwin Mellen Press, Lewiston, New York. 2010.
	\item[Conner, J.O.] ``Youth organizers as young adults: Their commitments and contributions.'' Journal of Research on Adolescence. (21) 4, 2011.
	\item[Conner, Jerusha and Sonia M. Rosen eds.] \emph{Contemporary Youth Activism: Advancing Social Justice in the United States.} ABC-CLIO, 2016. (especially ch. 7 ``Youth Environmental Stewardship and Activism for the Environmental Commons'', part II ``How Youth Activism Supports Youth'', and ch. 19 ``Injustice is Not an Investment: Student Activism, Climate Justice, and the Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaign''.)
	\item[Feuer, Lewis Samuel] \emph{The conflict of generations: the character and significance of student movements.} 1969.
	\item[Ginwright, S.A., Noguera, P. and Cammarota, J. eds.] \emph{Beyond Resistance!: Youth Activism and Community Change: New Possibilities for Practice and Policy For America's Youth.} Routledge; New York. 2006.
	\item[Rogers, J, Morrell, E. and Enyedy, N.] ``Studying the struggle: Contexts for learning and identity development for urban youth.'' American Behavioural Scientist. 51 (3). 2007.
\end{description}



Technology and collaboration in activism:\footnote{Online collaborative tools and platforms have been central to the functioning of CFFD campaigns: from social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter as means of awareness-raising, person-to-person communication, and event promotion to Google Docs and NationBuilder as powerful tools for collaboration among activists and organizers.}
\begin{description}
	\item[Benkler, Yochai] ``Sharing Nicely: On Shareable Goods and the Emergence of Sharing as a Modality of Economic Production''
	\item[Buettner, Ricardo and Katharina Buettner] ``A Systematic Literature Review of Twitter Research from a Socio-Political Revolution Perspective.'' HICSS-49 Proceedings: 49th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. 2016.
	\item[Davison, Patrick] ``The Language of Internet Memes''
	\item[Mandiberg, Michael] ``Giving Things Away Is Hard Work''
	\item[Obar, Jonathan; et al.] ``Advocacy 2.0: An Analysis of How Advocacy Groups in the United States Perceive and Use Social Media as Tools for Facilitating Civic Engagement and Collective Action.'' Journal of Information Policy. 2012.
	\item[Obar, Jonathan A.] ``Canadian Advocacy 2.0: An Analysis of Social Media Adoption and Perceived Affordances by Advocacy Groups Looking to Advance Activism in Canada'' Canadian Journal of Communication, 39 (2). 2014.
	\item[Shirky, Clay] ``Gin, Television, and Social Surplus'' (The social/cognitive surplus concept connects to how activism requires privilege, at least in terms of spare time. This can lead to accusations of hypocrisy when activists position themselves as champions of the poor and politically disenfranchised.)
	\item[Wong, Wendy and Peter Brown] ``E-Bandits in Global Activism: WikiLeaks, Anonymous, and the Politics of No One.'' Perspectives on Politics 11:04, 2013.
	\item[Wooten, Will] ``Case Study: Tar Sands Blockade, Fighting the Keystone XL in Rural East Texas.'' [TK --- Date and URL]
\end{description}



\subsubsection{Methodology}



Interview methods:
\begin{description}
	\item[Eckstein, Harry] ``Case Study and Theory in Political Science.'' in Gomm, Roger, Martyn Hammersley and Peter Foster. \emph{Case Study Method.} 2009.
	\item[Elgin, Dallas J.] ``Utilizing Hyperlink Network Analysis to Examine Climate Change Supporters and Opponents.'' \emph{Review of Policy Research.} 2015.
	\item[Geddes, Barbara] ``How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics.'' \emph{Political Analysis.} 2 (1): 131-150.  1990.
	\item[Gerring, John] ``What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good for?'' \emph{The American Political Science Review.}  Vol. 98, No. 2 (May, 2004), pp. 341-354.
	\item[Hestres, Luis E.] ``Preaching to the choir: Internet-mediated advocacy, issue public mobilization, and climate change''. New Media and Society. 2014. (``based on interviews with key staff members of two climate change advocacy campaigns'')
	\item[Mosley, Layna ed.] \emph{Interview Research in Political Science.} Cornell University Press. 2013.
	\item[Rogowski, Ronald] ``How Inference in the Social (but Not the Physical) Sciences Neglects Theoretical Anomaly.'' in Brady, Henry and David Collier. \emph{Rethinking social inquiry: diverse tools, shared standards.} 2004.
	\item[Schatz, Edward ed.] \emph{Political Ethnography: What Immersion Contributes to the Study of Power.} University of Chicago Press. 2009.
\end{description}



Process tracing:
\begin{description}
	\item[Betsill, Michele M. and Elizabeth Corell.] ``A Comparative Look at NGO Influence in International Environmental Negotiations: Desertification and Climate Change.'' Global Environmental Politics. 1 (4). 2001.
	\item[Zurn, Michael] ``The Rise of International Environmental Politics: A Review of Current Research.'' World Politics. 50 (4). 1998.
\end{description}



Related disciplines:
\begin{description}
	\item[Hachen, David S. Jr.] \emph{Sociology in Action: Cases for Critical and Sociological Thinking.} Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press. 2001.
	\item[Stoddart, Mark CJ, David B. Tindall, and Kelly L. Greenfield.] ````Governments have the power''? Interpretations of climate change responsibility and solutions among Canadian environmentalists.'' Organization \& Environment 25.1. 2012. p. 39-58.
	\item[Stoddart, Mark CJ, Randolph Haluza-DeLay, and David B. Tindall.] ``Canadian News Media Coverage of Climate Change: Historical Trajectories, Dominant Frames, and International Comparisons.'' Society \& Natural Resources 29.2 2016. p.218-232
	\item[Tindall, David.] \emph{Collective action in the rainforest: personal networks, collective identity and participation in the Vancouver Island wilderness preservation movement.} University of Toronto, 1994.
	\item[Tindall, David B., Joanna L. Robinson, and M. C. Stoddart.] ``Social network centrality, movement identification, and the participation of individuals in a social movement: The case of the Canadian environmental movement.'' \emph{Quantitative graph theory: Mathematical foundations and applications} 2014. p. 407.
\end{description}
\setstretch{2}



\section{Case selection}
% Submit to Olive by 2017-03-08



At least three kinds of cases potentially bear consideration for this project.
First, there are universities where climate activist groups have formed but chosen not to mount divestment campaigns.
Examination of these cases can help to mitigate concerns about selecting on the dependent variable, as well as provide broader understanding about the objectives and strategies of campus climate activist groups.
Second, there are CFFD campaigns which have led to a clear result.
Because of the ever-present possibility that a university will choose to change its fossil fuel investment choices in the future, no campaign can ever be permanently considered over.
That said, media reports examined to date have not revealed any universities where divestment was rejected but subsequent activist effort lead to a reversal, nor any universities that committed to divest at one point but later reversed themselves.
It is, of course, quite possible that cases of both types will emerge with time.
There may be value in examining cases where an initial rejection has been met with major continued activist effort, such as at Harvard, McGill, and MIT. \footcite[][]{StephensonHarvard2016}\fnsep\footcite[][]{GlobeOnMcGillRejection}\fnsep\footcite[][]{brooks2013banking}\fnsep\footcite[][]{Nazemi2015}
Third, there are ongoing CFFD campaigns where the university administration has not yet made a clear, public decision.



\href{https://350.org}{350.org} maintains a database of successful divestment campaigns at \href{https://gofossilfree.org/}{gofossilfree.org}.
They classify commitments as ``Fossil Free'' (fully divested from the 200 corporations with the largest fossil fuel reserves), ``Full'', ``Partial'', ``Coal and Tar Sands'', and ``Coal only'' and also break down organizations by type, including governments, educational institutions, for profit corporations, NGOs, pension funds, philanthropic foundations, etc.\footnote{\url{https://gofossilfree.org/divestment-commitments-classifications/}}
Laval University (listed as ``Full'') is the only Canadian success listed as of February 2017, though a variety of Canadian churches and private foundations have divested.



In the United States, they list:
\begin{itemize}
	\setlength\itemsep{0.3em}
	\item Boston University (Coal and Tar Sands)
	\item Brevard College (Full)
	\item California Institute of the Arts (Full)
	\item Chico State University (Full)
	\item College of the Atlantic (Full)
	\item ESF College Foundation, Inc. (Full)
	\item Foothill-De Anza Community College Foundation (Full)
	\item George School (Coal Only)
	\item Georgetown University (Partial)
	\item Goddard College (Fossil Free)
	\item Green Mountain College (Full)
	\item Hampshire College (Full)
	\item Humboldt State University (Partial)
	\item Naropa University (Full)
	\item Peralta Community College District (Full)
	\item Pitzer College (Full)
	\item Prescott College (Partial)
	\item Rhode Island School of Design (Full)
	\item Salem State University (Full)
	\item San Francisco State University Foundation (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Stanford University (Coal Only)
	\item Sterling College (Full)
	\item Syracuse University (Full)
	\item The New School (Full)
	\item Unity College (Full)
	\item University of Oregon Foundation (Full)
	\item University of California (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Dayton (Full)
	\item University of Hawaii (Full)
	\item University of Maine System (Coal Only)
	\item University of Maryland (Full)
	\item University of Massachusetts Foundation (Full)
	\item University of Washington (Coal Only)
	\item Warren Wilson College (Full)
	\item Western Oregon University (Partial)
	\item Yale University (Partial)
\end{itemize}
In the United Kingdom they list:\begin{itemize}
	\setlength\itemsep{0.3em}
	\item Aston University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Birmingham City University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Bournemouth University (Full)
	\item Cardiff Metropolitan University (Full)
	\item Cranfield University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item De Montfort University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Goldsmiths University of London (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Heriot-Watt University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item King's College London (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item London School of Economics (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item London School of Hygiene \& Tropical Medicine (Coal Only)
	\item Manchester Metropolitan University (Full)
	\item Newcastle University (Full)
	\item Nottingham Trent University (Full)
	\item Oxford Brookes University (Full)
	\item Oxford University (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item Queen Margaret University (Full)
	\item Queen Mary University London (Full)
	\item SOAS, University of London (Full)
	\item Sheffield Hallam University (Fossil Free)
	\item University of Abertay Dundee (Full)
	\item University of Arts Bournemouth (Full)
	\item University of Bedfordshire (Full)
	\item University of Cambridge (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Edinburgh (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Glasgow (Full)
	\item University of Gloucestershire (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Greenwich (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Hertfordshire (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Kent (Full)
	\item University of Lincoln (Full)
	\item University of Portsmouth (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Sheffield (Full)
	\item University of Southampton (Full)
	\item University of St. Andrews (Full)
	\item University of Surrey (Full)
	\item University of Sussex (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Wales Trinity Saint David (Full)
	\item University of Warwick (Full)
	\item University of Westminster (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
	\item University of Worcester (Full)
	\item University of the Arts London (Full)
	\item University of the West of Scotland (Fossil Free)
	\item Wolfson College, Oxford (Coal and Tar Sands Only)
\end{itemize}
\setstretch{2}
[TK --- Number of students, location, size of endowment for each]



% Establish the composition and early dynamics of the campaign
Ideally it would be desirable to find some cases where faculty were involved from the outset and played an entrepreneurial role as group and campaign initiators; others where faculty eventually became actively involved as volunteers; and others where faculty only provided a measure of public support, such as by signing petitions or open letters.\footnote{U~of~T and UBC contrast on this, both in terms of the involvement of faculty from the outset in one case and not the other, and in terms of limited overall faculty support at U~of~T, despite energetic outreach efforts from CFFD organizers and volunteers and an endorsement from the Faculty Association.}
It would be desirable to assess the degree to which forms of governance within organizations campaigning for divestment affect the outcomes of campaigns, both in terms of institutional decisions and impacts on participants.



% Option - choose the famous ones
One major motivation for the CFFD campaign is the idea that universities are thought leaders and that their decisions to divest would encourage other investors to consider regulatory risks to the fossil fuel industry, while also delegitimizing the industry in the eyes of public policy-makers and the general public.\footcite[Chloe Maxmin, coordinator of Divest Harvard, explains: ``What the fossil fuel divestment movement is saying to companies is your fundamental business model of extracting and burning carbon is going to create an uninhabitable planet. So you need to stop. You need a new business model.''][p. 354]{Klein2014}
By delegitimizing the fossil fuel industry in the same way anti-tobacco campaigns previously achieved, new political possibilities like prohibiting them from advertising or making political donations might become possible.\footcite[][p. 355]{Klein2014}
Based on that, a case could be made to focus attention on the highest-profile schools that have made some kind of divestment commitment, notably: Laval, Georgetown, Stanford, The New School, the University of California, Yale, King's College London, the London School of Economics, Oxford, and Cambridge.
At the same time, it would be worthwhile to look at similarly high-profile schools where a campaign took place but divestment was entirely rejected, such as: UBC, the University of Toronto, McGill, Harvard, and MIT.\footcite[Curnow and Gross refer to Dalhousie, McGill, and UBC as ``high-profile rejections'', which can be contrasted with quieter ones at Trent and the University of Calgary.][p. 372]{CurnowInConnerRosen}



% U of T?
An important practical and ethical question for my project is whether to use the University of Toronto (U~of~T) as a case study.
On one hand, my personal involvement in the campaign offers me a great deal of experience for evaluating the plausibility of various claims and I have pre-existing information about processes and people that have been important.
During the campaign, Joe Curnow, a PhD student at U~of~T's Ontario Institute for Studies in Education explicitly made use of the campaign itself as a subject of study, both through detailed multi-directional video recording of meetings and through participant observation.\footcite[See: ][p. 371]{CurnowInConnerRosen}
All major planning meetings were videotaped in this way, with consent provided by participants, indicating a broad willingness for their efforts to be the subjects of academic study.
On the other hand, my involvement was as an activist and not as a researcher.
As a result, all the information which I have was not collected under an academic ethics protocol.
Also, my involvement was motivated by a desire to have the campaign succeed, rather than to produce the most defensible possible understanding of the movement as a whole.
It's impossible for me to ignore my experience at U~of~T when answering these questions, but these issues of ethical approval and objectivity probably make the U~of~T case better suited for use as general background than for use as a formal case study.



\section{Methods}
% Submit to Olive by 2017-03-15



% Early outreach
As explained above, interviews with key CFFD organizers and inter-campaign brokers will be an essential data source for network analysis.
As such, it seems desirable to share information about this study as early as feasible, in part so that knowledgeable organizers and brokers can contribute methodological ideas to the research design.
This early outreach should include all the divestment staffers at \href{https://350.org}{350.org}.
It should also include key organizers identified in the existing literature and media coverage, including Betsy Bolton, Peter Collings, Giovanna Di Chiro, Mark Wallace, and Stephen O'Hanlon at Swarthmore; Allyson Gross at Bowdoin; Chloe Maxmin at Harvard; Richelle Martin, Kayley Reed, and Christina Wilson at the University of New Brunswick; Lily Schwarzbaum at McGill; Alice-Anne Simard at Laval; George Hoberg and Kathryn Harrison at UBC; and Cameron Fenton with the Canadian Youth Climate Coalition.
The pinnacle objective in terms of research subjects is cooperation from organizers who are known to have worked on more than one fossil fuel divestment campaign which led to some kind of response from the authority who they were petitioning.
This clearly includes the professional brokers discussed in \nameref{sec:H2}.
It also includes Miriam Wilson, who went from helping to organize the U~of~T CFFD campaign to organizing a successful campaign at the University of Glasgow, along with as-yet-undetermined brokers who customized open-source materials from the the U~of~T CFFD campaign to divest Toronto's Trinity-St. Paul's United Church and Centre for Faith, Justice and the Arts.\footcite[][]{BrooksGlasgow2014}\fnsep\footcite[][]{MoffatTSP2014}
In addition to interviewing people who played a prominent role in a CFFD divestment campaign, brokers in NGOs, and volunteer brokers, it would likely be valuable to interview people who played significant roles in off-campus fossil fuel divestment, including Jeanne Moffat at  Trinity-St. Paul's United Church; [TK --- others]



% Participant observation
Participant observation played a key role in Curnow's research on the U~of~T CFFD campaign.
It was similarly employed by Hirsch on the Columbia anti-apartheid campaign of the 1980s, in which he ``spent many hours each day observing the activities of the protestors and their opponent, the Columbia administration'' as the protestors peacefully blockaded Hamilton Hall.\footcite[][p. 246]{hirsch1990sacrifice} 



% Documentary evidence
In terms of documentary evidence, fossil fuel divestment is a promising research topic in part because campaigns have often involved highly formalized written decision-making processes, in which campaigns have put forward detailed written arguments, committees of various types have deliberated and published recommendations, and decisions made by universities have often included formal written justifications.
The U~of~T process provides an example, with a formal petition from divestment proponents to the university (updated substantially at one point because the process had taken so long), formal recommendations from a committee appointed by the administration, a response from the campaign to that committee (emphasizing the need to address harm imposed on indigenous groups by the fossil fuel industry), and the university's final decision with detailed written justification.\footcite[][]{Brief2013}\fnsep\footcite[][]{BriefUpdate}\fnsep\footcite[][]{AHCOM2015}\fnsep\footcite[][]{COMRESP2016}\fnsep\footcite[][]{BeyondDivestment2016}
Formal petitions from other schools include the University of Denver, [TK --- McGill, Harvard, etc].\footcite[][]{DenverBrief}
Formal presentations and speeches for which transcripts, audio, or video are available would play a similar role.
In addition to providing important evidence about how various stakeholders interpret the situation and justify their actions, these documents reveal linkages between both activist campaigns and institutional decision-making processes at different schools.



% Survey
As undertaken by Hirsch, one or more surveys could be useful for understanding the perspectives of current and past organizers and activists in CFFD campaigns.
Many people who were only somewhat actively involved in campaigns may be difficult to identify, contact, and engage with.\footcite[Of Hirsch's 300 surveys, a remarkable 60.3 percent were returned complete., many of them by members of the university community who either were not involved in or actively opposed the divestment campaign.][p. 246]{hirsch1990sacrifice}
Nonetheless, short web-accessible surveys might generate data that would bolster evidence on hypotheses about the effects of participation in CFFD campaigns on the subsequent thinking and political activity of activists.
Such a survey could also lead to new channels of communication with brokers and organizers willing to be interviewed about their CFFD work.



% Is process tracing feasible?
A key uncertainty is how feasible it will be to interview large numbers of activists and acquire documents or other information on the functioning of campus fossil fuel divestment campaigns.
In the context of the Copenhagen COP, Hadden was able to use media accounts, interviews, institutional documents, and speeches to apply a process tracing methodology to analyzing the influence of civil society activity on political outcomes and on the emergence of the climate justice frame.\footcite[][]{Hadden2015}
The total amount of information available (especially interviews with key organizers and university officials) will likely establish whether an approach including process tracing would be feasible.\footcite[][p. 67]{Greitens2016}\fnsep\footcite[][]{Bennett2008}







\section*{Bibliography}


\setstretch{1}
\printbibliography


	
\end{document}