Many problems in nuclear strategy are unpleasant or even horrifying to contemplate. As the number of nuclear-armed nations grows, the chances that one will be put in a desperate situation and choose to use one more more nuclear weapons likely rises.
An article by Vince Manzo and John Warden considers potential American responses to the use of a nuclear weapon by a hostile power, including four scenarios involving North Korea and Russia.
Among all the international norms under threat, the norm of non-use of nuclear weapons is among the most valuable. If at all possible, it should be reinforced even if one state does use nuclear weapons. As the article illustrates, however, that will be one among many strategic considerations, and no option offers the kind of certainty that would be desirable.
As Ukraine’s stunning counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022 got underway, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continued to call on Washington to provide Kyiv with longer-range missiles. According to reporting by Bob Woodward in his October 2024 book War, however, during that period, Washington received “highly sensitive, credible” intelligence based on “conversations inside the Kremlin” that Putin “was seriously considering using a tactical nuclear weapon.” If Russia’s 30,000 troops in Kherson faced encirclement, U.S. intelligence—its credibility riding high after its accurate forecast of the initial 2022 invasion—put the odds at 50 percent that Putin would use nonstrategic nuclear weapons to avoid the loss of troops. Analysts outside the government identified additional plausible and dangerous scenarios for nuclear escalation, including the launch of a “demonstration shot” over the Black Sea. Florida Senator Marco Rubio raised the prospect that Putin could order a strike on transit hubs for supplies from the West.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/real-risks-escalation-ukraine