On modes of reasoning

Electricity danger sign

One major tenet of liberalism is the idea that greater awareness of the world gained by people collectively through science and individually through education can improve overall human welfare in the long term. Firstly, the idea is that people will gain a more accurate understanding of the world and how it works. Much more controversially, they might improve the way they reason.

A game much loved by economists illustrates the controversy:

There are two players. The first player is asked to divide $10 into two parts and offer one to the second player. If the second player accepts the offer, each player gets to keep their share. If the second player refuses, nobody gets anything.

Standard economic logic would call upon player one to offer exactly $0.01, which player two should happily accept. Both players are made better off and should thus be willing to make the deal, and each player has maximized their earnings, given the rules of the game.

Of course, the game doesn’t work this way with real people. Hardly anyone will accept an offer of less than $3. This is entirely logical if you view the game not as an isolated occurrence, but one event in a life. Over the course of a life, it pays to develop strategies that keep you from having advantage taken of you. Likewise, over the course of repeated interaction, it pays to have strategies by which other people can be compelled to give you a better deal. This one choice may not offer the scope for such development, but the existence of such heuristic devices (like rules of thumb) can be extremely efficient where people have limited information and thinking power.

Economists, on the other hand, are about the only people who make offers of less than $1. More tellingly, they are also about the only people who accept such meagre offers. Through exposure to economic theory, their mechanisms of logical thinking have been altered. It is probably fruitless to speculate on whether they have been improved. Economists can understand the importance of factors like those listed above, so playing this way isn’t obviously a sign that their thinking has worsened. Of course, if economic trailing makes them less likely to anticipate that people might reject a $0.01 offer, perhaps they are worse off overall.

What is more interesting than the consideration of whether the economically optimal strategy is inferior or superior is the consideration of how frameworks of understanding affect decision-making and, furthermore, what effect that has on the liberal conception of welfare improvement through improved knowledge. The previous blog entry, for instance, portrayed the costs of global warming in terms of how much it would cost people to deal with (a very common economic representation). Drowned polar bears and damaged ecosystems only matter insofar as they affect people. Personally, I find such an approach reprehensible – for the same reason I think the wholesale denial of animal rights is morally unacceptable.

One can defend that position on pragmatic grounds: human beings with a reverence for nature have a better chance of living good lives and/or not wiping ourselves out. Saying we should cultivate the belief on those grounds is similar to Rorty’s conception of ironic liberalism. By contrast, the belief that the integrity of natural systems matters for its own sake has an intuitive appeal of a sort very un-chic and difficult to defend in a world full of poststructuralist rejections of firm ontological foundations to moral truth. Anyone who can devise an argument for the inherent value of nature not subject to such criticism will earn my appreciation.

PS. Inside nested padded envelopes, the dust-infested Canon A510 is en route to a registered service depot. If they decide to cover the problem under the warranty, I expect they will replace the camera outright, rather than trying to open and clean it. Doing so would take a fair amount of some technicians time and, if the camera isn’t properly sealed, it would only be a matter of time before parts of my sensor would start getting opaque again. Hopefully, it will come back in time for my trip to Ireland later this month.

PPS. I just upgraded to WordPress 2.0.4. Please report any bugs you come across on the bug reports page. Note also that, due to a barrage of spam comments, I have tightened the comment filtering settings. My apologies if any of your comments get zapped by the filters.

Apology for cursory treatment

Coming home to 900 blog posts, all laid out in BlogLines, is impossible. My apologies to you all, but your hard-earned thought committed to webservers have mostly been dismissed at a glance. It is a very concrete demonstration of the limitations of all human beings, and the hopelessness of capturing any significant share of human knowledge over the course of our lives.

Tutorials very successfully concluded

My tutorials this afternoon went exceptionally well. Discussing an area that you really know a great deal about with someone who is interested but just starting out in their scholarly examination of it is both engaging and rewarding. I am especially enjoying the tutorial on distributive justice. I remember how interesting it was to first read Rawls, Mill, Singer, et al and it is particularly gratifying to be sharing such ideas with someone else. The only danger is assigning a reading list that is far too long. As far as the tutorials on globalization and global justice go, I need not have worried about being short on communicable knowledge.

The other tutorial, on OPEC and the oil price shock, was also quite interesting. I have gone over 20th century Middle Eastern history enough times now that I feel quite comfortable talking about it and have a list of sources in mind basically all the time. In general, the tutorials were a reminder of the excitement that can be associated with the conveyance of knowledge.

I am looking forward to the four tutorials that remain with these two students.

You think you’re so clever, but you forget about the VAT

So much for saving money by using price differences between the US and UK version of Amazon. Today, I received not my headphones, but the duty bill for them:

Cost of headphones from Amazon.com: US$75 (C$85) (£40)
Shipping from USA to UK: US$26 (C$29)
UK Value Added Tax: £12 (C$25)
UK Parcelforce Clearance Fee: £14 (C$30)
Total: C$169 (Ack! Ack!)
Delivery time: about five weeks

Cost on Amazon.co.uk (with all taxes and shipping): £74 (C$156)
Delivery time: 4-6 days

In any case, I suppose I will cycle the five miles or so out to Kidlington (where the depot is) to pick them up either after my tutorials today or tomorrow. Many thanks to Jessica for her help with the ungainly trans-shipment process above.

The moral of the story: ye who think you can get $160 headphones for $85 are probably mistaken.

[Update: 9:01pm] I rode the six and a half miles to the pickup depot. I paid the $100 in taxes. I put in the headphones with the flanged eartips… and was disappointed. It sounded more precise than the default iPod earphones, but not enormously better. An hour later, I tried the foam eartips and I understood. Tori has never sounded more astounding. If it keeps up for a few years, the Etymotic ER6i headphones will have been worth every cent.

[Update: 2 August] It should be further noted that the Etymotic customer service people are unusually polite and helpful. I wanted to order the larger flanged tips to see if they work as well as the medium foam tips. There was no time spent on hold at all, and I was immediately put in touch with someone who is going to send me the large flanged eartips internationally for free. Such things are always pleasant surprises.

[Update: 8 August] I got the larger and smaller alternative eartips for the Etymotics today. The large flanged ones work much better than the normal flanged ones, but don’t sound quite as good as the normal foam eartips. That said, the normal foam ones get somewhat gross quite quickly and are hard to clean. I think I will mostly stick with the large flanged eartips.

[Update: 30 January 2007] I had a few minutes of abject panic today, when it seemed that the right earbud in my pair of excellent but expensive Etymotic ER6i headphones had dropped to 10% of its original volume. I had been listening for a few straight hours, working on a paper, and found myself wondering why the song I was listening to was so biased to the left. Thankfully, when I called their very helpful tech support people, we realized that it was just a clogged filter. I replaced it with one of the replacements included in the original set and all is well. (Actually, the right side is a bit louder now, but the filters are $2.50 each and I should wait until the other is more clogged).

Back from Scotland

After an excellent few days, those parts of me not devoured by midges are back from Scotland. Over the three days, we climbed seven proper mountains (each more than 900m), including four designated as Munros. The mountains were quite spectacular – a nice reminder of home – and the fellow walkers were a great pleasure to spend time with. Interesting, knowledgeable, and friendly people all, we had some excellent conversations about everything from quantum chromodynamics to medieval theology. The combination of physical scientists, computer geeks, and a political theorist was nearly ideal. I was really glad to meet everyone, and I hope I shall meet them all again.

Sorting everything out, both physically and in terms of all the data, may keep me a while. Digital photos will appear both here and on Photo.net as I process them. I should have the roll of Velvia I shot off in the post for processing and scanning shortly, as well.

In closing, I should quickly thank the trip’s superb organizers. The Oxford University Walking Club is an exceedingly professional organization, run by very capable and helpful individuals. I really appreciate the opportunity they granted me.

Off to Scotland – goodbye until Monday

Train tracks south of Oxford

One advantage of not having all of your gear with you (particularly large backpacks) is that it forces a certain parsimony in packing. Given that we are only going for four days and that we will be spending a lot time crushed in a minibus, that is probably for the better. As such, I am reduced to standard hiking gear, wet weather gear, cold weather gear, and basic camping equipment. One important thing coming along with my is my Dublin book, so that I can plan where I want to go for my excursion beyond the city and generally plot out what I want to see. Suggestions are still very welcome.

My brothers are parents are making their annual trek to Oregon this coming week. It is something my family has been doing for more than a decade now: always going to the Lagoon Campground near Florence, Oregon by driving down the gorgeous Oregon coastline. I’ve gone at least six times: twice with my friend Jonathan, twice with Kate, and several times with just my family. Once, we went as far south as the Redwood Forest in California, but Florence is generally our terminus. Several times, the drive back has included Mount Saint Helens, and it always manages to encompass the Tillamook Cheese Factory. I hope they have a safe drive and enjoy themselves.

A full account of the hiking trip in Scotland, along with photos, will appear here upon my return.

South Hinksey

Bridge near South Hinksey

Happy Birthday Bilyana

While walking with Kelly this evening, we found an unusually nice bit of Oxfordshire, accessible through a park near their new flat. If you carry on down St. Aldates and across the Folly Bridge, then farther on down Abingdon Road, you will eventually see a park on the right. There is a small waterpark and a pool. Beyond that is a reasonably large lake, which can be crossed using the bridge in the photo above. Farther on are a set of train tracks likewise crossed by that bridge and then fields and the village of South Hinksey. It is all very attractive and photogenic, and I am glad to have discovered it in such good company.

Tomorrow, I need to tie up final loose ends before the Scotland trip. Now that it has become clear that we will be driving more than thirteen hours each way, I am a bit daunted by this four day excursion. Hopefully, the drive will be pleasant and the two days of hiking will be spectacular. My fingers are crossed incredibly tightly that I will get both papers from my August tutorial students in time to print them before leaving. If not, I will have a very hectic period of work to be completed immediately upon my return.

If I am to get my paper into the next issue of MITIR, I need to have it submitted by the 31st. Since I will be in Scotland after the 27th, that means finishing it tomorrow. They haven’t been entirely clear on whether they just want a few stylistic changes and a few specific statistics, or if they are serious about the 4000 word maximum. If so, I need to boil away more than a third of the existing paper. Hardly something I can do in the day that remains to me. All that can be done is for me to revise the paper as well as can be managed, send it off before I leave, and then return home to find out what they have decided. It seems increasingly likely that I will also return home to finally find my new headphones.

Warped wheel

I have discovered why the rear wheel of my bike keeps going out of alignment and rubbing against the frame: the wheel itself is somewhat bent. No matter how I line it up, there is a warp that causes it to rub against the brake pad once or twice per revolution. Over time, I guess it drifts more and more, to the point where the side of the tire is rubbing against the back portion of the frame.

When I get back from Scotland, I will have to go to Beeline Cycles and learn how much it will cost to have repaired. Until then, I will ride with a spanner so that I can reset things when they go too badly out of whack for me to easily maintain forward momentum.

[Update: 5 August 2006] I brought the bike in to Beeline Cycles, where I bought it back in March, and they fixed it for free under the warranty. Yet another case in which they have exceeded my expectations for good customer service.

The moral choices in assigning rights

Tree at St. Hugh's College

The best piece of writing I have come across in the last week or so is a chapter from the Bromley and Paavola book on environmental economics that I have been reading. By A. Allan Schmid, it is called “All Environmental Policy Instruments Require a Moral Choice as to Whose Interests Count.” The argument is that the idea of solving environmental problems in a purely technical way (internalizing externalities, to borrow from the economics lingo) is impossible. When a policy is represented that way, there is always a moral choice being concealed. In tort law, this becomes explicit through an instrument called nuisance.

If my neighbours are making homemade beer and the process produces a constant cloud of nasty smelling gas that wafts into my yard and through my windows, I could seek remedy in court. It would then be decided whether or not the smell constitutes nuisance. If not, the court effectively grants a right to produce the smell to my neighbours. I would then be free to try to convince them to use that right differently, for instance by paying them not to make beer.

If the court rules in my favour one of two things can take place. They can grant an injunction, forbidding my neighbours to make beer without my permission. This is great for me, since I can effectively sell them the right to make beer if the amount they are willing to pay exceeds the amount the smell bothers me. This is what Coase is alluding to in his argument that it doesn’t matter who you assign rights to, as long as bargaining can occur (See: Coase Theorem). Of course, he ignores the distributional consequences of assigning the rights one way or another. As an alternative to an injunction, the court can fix a set amount of damages to be paid. This relieves the nuisance, but gives me less scope to take advantage of the court’s decision.

What the example illustrates is that in creating policies to deal with externalities, the rights in question must be effectively assigned to one party or another. We either assign companies the right to pollute, which people around them can negotiate for them not to do, or we assign those people the right not to live in a polluted place, in which case the company has to go to them with an offer. The assigning of rights, then, isn’t a mere technical instrument for achieving an environmental end, but a matter of distributive justice.

Consider the case of fisheries access agreements in West Africa. West African governments have the sovereign right to exploit the waters in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). They can also choose to sell that right, as many have done, to the EU. The governments end up getting about 10% of the value of the fish that are caught, while suffering the loss of future revenue that is associated with the depletion of the fisheries (since they are exploited at an unsustainable level). In this case, the distributional consequences of West African governments being rights holders are fairly adverse. The incentives generated inflict harm on the life prospects of those whose protein intake previously came from fish caught by artisinal fisheries now rendered less productive due to EU industrial fishing. Likewise, the life prospects of future generations of citizens are harmed.

One of the best bits of the Schmid piece is the following:

A popular phrase contrasts “command and control” with voluntary choice. Another contrasts “coercive” regulations with “free” markets. This is mischievous, if not devious. At least, it is certainly selective perception. First of all, the market is not a single unique thing. There are as many markets as there are starting place ownership structures. I personally love markets, but of course I always want to be a seller of opportunities and not a buyer. Equally mischievous is the idea that externalities are a special case where markets fail. Indeed, externalities are the ubiquitous stuff of scarcity and interdependence.

He puts to paid the idea that there is a tradeoff between economic efficiency and moral principles. That is simple enough when you realize there is an infinite set of economically efficient outcomes, given different possible preferences and starting distributions.

Those wanting to read the entire piece should see: Schmid, A. Allen. “All Environmental Policy Instruments Require a Moral Choice as to Whose Interests Count.” in Bromley, Daniel and Jouni Paavola (eds). Economics, Ethics, and Environmental Policy: Contested Choices. Oxford : Blackwell Publishing. 2002. pp. 133-147.

Ten weeks of summer remain

Bridge over the Oxford canal

Happy Birthday Kelly Kilpatrick

About ten weeks now remain before the start of Michaelmas 2006. Of the major things I wanted to do over the summer – namely, travel, earn some money, and work on the thesis – I have done at least a bit of each. Hopefully, all three will be boosted in August as I instruct two more students, complete more additional batches of work for Dr. Hurrell, and travel to Ireland.

One thing I need to develop is a filing system for thesis related materials. Books are easy enough to deal with, whether they are mine or borrowed from the library. What I really need an organizational system for are my own notes on readings (which I have generally put into a succession of notebooks, ordered chronologically) and printed or photocopied articles. For the fish paper, I just put that stuff into one big binder, but I doubt that will be adequate for a 30,000 word project.

Speaking of the fish paper, I really must get back to editing it. It is now anybody’s guess whether I will be able to complete the desired revisions before leaving for Scotland, and thus whether it will appear in the next issue of the MIT International Review or the one subsequent.

PS. Still no Etymotics. With bated breath, I wait.