Thirty days until thesis submission

Spiral staircase in Oriel College

With my departure for the reading week in Dorset a mere nine days away, the pressure is on to submit as complete a thesis draft as possible, so there will be at least some opportunity for discussion before then. As such, my aim is to complete my consensus chapter by Sunday evening, at which point I mean to have it physically delivered.

The prospect of moving beyond the thesis is quite an alluring one. For months, the project has been dominating my attention – though often more on account of the anxiety it induces than in terms of workable ideas being generated and put on paper. The efficiency with which a project is completed basically seems to be inversely proportional to the total size. Dealing with a single email, one can use almost 100% of the time devoted to action actually working. For a research paper, it seems unlikely to be much above 50%. For a thesis, I would be surprised if 30% efficiency was being achieved.

What’s the big idea?

Cactus spines

Sorry to be writing more about the thesis. I spent a good fifteen minutes trying to think up something else to write about, as well as flipping through the websites most likely to provide inspiration.

The trickiest thing I am doing at the moment is trying to come up with an over-arching argument for each of my three substantive thesis chapters. Each one has a lot of content – many sources, issues identified as important, and specific points about those issues – but none really has a single massive point to prove. Personally, I am fairly happy to present things as a series of related vignettes on consistent topics and themes. It seems, however, that something more directed and integrated is required. That creates the danger of setting up straw men to knock down. Coming up with an important, novel point that takes 7000 words and a couple of dozen sources of diverse kinds to prove is not an easy thing.

PS. As part of my thesis-completion drive, I am boycotting Adium (a program that combines MSN, AIM, ICQ, Google Talk, and other message programs). People who want to speak with me should try Skype: more meaningful and less likely to carry on for many hours. My apologies to all the friends I have been neglecting, while trying to get through this.

Task sequencing altered

Today’s meeting with my supervisor was very useful – the flaws in my draft second chapter were discussed, and a route forward proposed. As soon as possible, I am to submit a revised chapter two introduction, as well as draft versions for the opening sections of chapters three and four. These are to lay out the central purpose of each chapter, the three or four main arguments that will be made, and the structure that will be used:

  • Chapter two, main argument: the linear model of scientific investigation is wrong, in the context of environmental politics generally and Stockholm and Kyoto specifically
  • Chapter three: scientific and political consensus are not independent, the first does not chronologically precede the second
  • Chapter four: technical remedies to environmental problems are not value neutral (be sure to focus on remedies and scientific rationality, not economic rationality ie. Coase)

Once that is done, I am to revise chapter two into a more logical form, then write the draft of chapter three that was originally due tomorrow. The objective of all this is to have the structure of all three chapters finalized by the end of the month, as well as their introductions and conclusions. Then, when Dr. Hurrell leaves for Brazil and I go to Dorset, it will be a matter of tidying things up, adding some footnotes, and generally polishing the finished work prior to submission.

Of course, that leaves me with eighteen days to write two more chapters, as well as discuss and edit them. Amazing how the period in which the bulk of the work on a project actually seems to get done always lumps up at the end. Hopefully, all the background reading I have been doing since last year will percolate into my analysis.

And so it continues…

Houses and trees before the setting sun

Looking over my introduction and first chapter, both show an acute need for additional work. Many thanks to Tristan for giving them a much more comprehensive look than anyone else has. The chapter on problem identification, particularly, shows signs of having been written in haste. I need to integrate arguments in response to many things I have read, but not discussed in the present draft. I also need to work on the structure, language, and arguments.

Even more worryingly, I am meant to submit my chapter on consensus formation next Wednesday, and it is nowhere near where I wanted it to be before I left for Wales. I am not naive enough to think I will be able to get any work done there, but I am committed to the expedition now. Expect some truly frantic, crazed entries early next week.

I wish I had my noise isolating headphones. Even more, I wish I had the ability to simply read efficiently for many hours at a stretch. Memory suggests I could do this once, but perhaps I am not recalling things accurately.

One thing not happening this summer

I heard back about the Richard Casement Internship at The Economist today:

Dear Milan Ilnyckyj

Many thanks for your application for the Richard Casement internship, but I’m sorry to have to tell you that you haven’t got it. There were 220 candidates this year, a record number, so I wouldn’t feel too bad about this.

Good luck in the future.

Geoffrey Carr
Science and Technology Editor
The Economist

I was hoping to at least be within the fraction of those who they interviewed, but I expect that would be less than 5% of the total. Even with the pay advertised as ‘a modest stipend,’ I can easily see why 220 people under 25 would apply to write about science for such an interesting publication, headquartered in such interesting cities. Simply in terms of the people you would meet, it would almost certainly be worth doing for free. I hope whoever gets it will make the most of it.

The article I wrote has been posted online, in case anyone wants to read it.

40% written, roughly

The draft of the second chapter has been submitted. I expect that it will change a moderate amount before the final version. After all, it only makes sense in conversation with the next two chapters. More importantly, there is no clean demarcation between problem investigation and consensus formation, the subjects of the second and third chapters respectively.

I am to have at least an internal draft of the third chapter by the time I leave for Snowdonia on Friday. Sometime between now and then, I should meet with Dr. Hurrell to discuss this draft.

While sometimes frustrating, and always terrifying, this is certainly a learning experience.

Another boring thesis post

Kellogg College, Oxford

I now have a 5000 words of convoluted first draft, 2500 words of much neater second draft, and half of two critical books left to read. Once that is done, I will finish writing the second draft, make nicer versions of two diagrams, migrate any vital ideas and all the footnotes from the first draft, and finally print the thing off and deposit it at Nuffield by a sensible time tomorrow night. This will result in a draft dramatically better than anything I could have submitted on Wednesday.

The whole process needs to be done again by the 15th: hopefully, with a solid draft done before I leave for Wales on the 9th.

PS. Does anyone remember the first major graph in An Inconvenient Truth? The one of rising CO2 levels, as observed in Hawaii? In 1957, a couple of years after that data collection began, the funding ran out and the monitoring ceased. It resumed in 1958 because of a big boost in American spending on scientific research after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik.

A new library, precious sources

St Peter’s College, Oxford

While I am a certifiable idiot for not realizing it earlier, it transpires that the Geography and the Environment Library on Mansfield Road has a treasure trove of thesis related books. In five minutes flat, I registered to use the library and take out their books. I now have an elegant stack of books on the history of climate change: just the sort I have been looking for, while despairing about the gap in my bibliography. Once I have finished Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming, read John Hardy’s Climate Change: Causes, Effects, and Solutions, tracked down a few of their sources, re-read Northern Lights Against POPs, and done the same for that, I will be ready to re-draft my second chapter in a far superior form.

The library itself is also quite a welcoming place. I will link a photo of it here, once I have the chance to put one online. The main room, has a very attractive asymmetrically gabled roof. It is quiet, smells faintly of wood, and has high resolution monitors and blazing fast internet access. The maps on the wall, skylights, and windows overlooking the Balliol Sports Grounds are also reasons for which I am considering making this another thesis base of operations, in addition to Church Walk and the High Street Starbucks.

Chapter two, second version

I have been thinking about how to incorporate the general ideas from this post into the revised and clarified version of my second chapter, upon which I am now working. It seems that there are three axes across which environmental problems can be assessed: predictability, intentionality, and desirability. Of these, the third is most likely to have different values for different actors.

The mine tailings example is certainly intentional, for it is an inescapable and obvious product of mining activity. The predictability score depends on the status of knowledge about the health and ecological consequences of particular tailings at the time when they were released into the environment. Here, there is also a discussion to be had about the extent to which an actor engaged in something that could well have ecological or health consequences is morally obligated to investigate what those may be. There are also questions about whether private actors are merely obliged to follow the law, or whether they need to act upon moral considerations with which the law has not explicitly saddled them.

On the matter of desirability, the range includes possibilities of utility gain, indifference, and loss. The mining company probably has an indifferent or unfavourable view of tailings: if they could be avoided for moderate cost, they would be. This is certainly true now that the consequences of certain tailings are known and legal and moral obligations on the part of such companies are fairly well entrenched. A more interesting possibility is environmental change that increases the utility of some, while diminishing that of others. This could happen both with intentional acts (say, building a dam) or unintentional ones (the unintended introduction of a species into a new area).

In any event, the new plan is to boil the introductory portion of the chapter down until it is only about 1000 words long. Then, I will write 2500 words each on the case studies, and 1000 words in concluding comments. Most of the existing commentary will be migrated into the case study sections. The best way to do all of this is probably to re-write from scratch, then import and vital elements and citations from the old version. A similar chapter model can be adopted for the third and fourth chapters and, since most of the research being done covers all three, they should prove reasonably easy to write once it is done.

[Update: 3 March 2007] I now feel confident that the version of the chapter to be submitted tomorrow, four days late, will be enormously superior to what could have been submitted on time. This owes much to the new books I got at the Geography and Environment Library. Those with restricted wiki access can have a look at the emerging draft.

My last-minute assembly skills have failed me

According to my thesis schedule, I am meant to have my second chapter submitted now. Instead, I have 5200 words, only 1200 of which are about my case studies. Even within the analytical stuff, there is a lot of ambiguous sequencing, and a great many emphatic [ADD MORE HERE] editorial notes. It seems unlikely that this chapter can be completed tonight, regardless of caffeine consumption levels.

I need to:

  1. Complete the necessary reading, especially on pre-IPCC climate change science
  2. Trawl through the notes I have already made about sources, ideas, and themes
  3. Expand the case study portion of the chapter to about 5000 words, shifting the bits that are now independent into the case study narrative

I suppose I should get cracking on the first of those. The whole thing – three substantive chapters, a conclusion, and a revised introduction – needs to be submitted in 53 days. Time for another pot of coffee.