February 2007 – Page 4 – a sibilant intake of breath

Climate change, law, and predictability

Happy Birthday Kate Dillon

In a somewhat surprising move, a coalition of opposition members of Parliament in Canada have passed a bill forcing the government to live up to the commitment that was made when we signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, Canada is to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 6% below their 1990 levels by 2012. This is quite a substantial reduction to achieve in the next five years, given that emissions are presently about 30% above their 1990 levels.

In many ways, this situation demonstrates how not to deal with the problem of climate change. What you need to do is create the certainty, within industry, that the costs of GHG emissions will increase predictably and progressively over time. Then, when decisions are being made about what equipment to buy and how to set up industrial processes, the extra constraints can be taken into account. By contrast, the present on-again-off-again approach doesn’t create clear incentives. Even worse, it is not clear to industry what will happen after 2012.

The most straightforward and effective approach would be a tax on every tonne of GHG emissions, weighted according to the contribution the particular gas makes to global warming. Since methane contributes more than CO2, it would be more highly taxed. That tax would then rise progressively over time, until Canada reached the point where GHG emissions stabilized and then began to drop towards pre-industrial levels. Whether such an approach would be politically possible (especially with Alberta eying a tar sands bonanza that could mean massive emissions) is another matter. Three plans for meeting the target are outlined in this article from The Globe and Mail.

It comes in threes

The first substantive chapter of the thesis is about problem identification and investigation. This is not being treated as necessarily temporally prior to the next two substantive chapters (consensus formation and remedy design), but the three do seem analytically separable. Throughout the triptych, at least three themes are likely to be ever-present: the moral relevance of uncertainty, the importance of social roles, and the ways in which normative assumptions are embedded and concealed within processes.

The confluence of three other things defines the reasons for which this thesis is a novel contribution: the exploration of those themes, the combination and comparison of the two case studies, and the focus upon the contribution that international relations as a discipline can make to the subject at hand. Having those three overlapping reasons is comforting, because it means I am quite unlikely to be utterly scooped by someone else who is looking at the same problems in similar ways.

Pragmatically, it does seem like the environment is likely to be a growth area in international relations. That said, there are three major possibilities for the future overall:

Climate change proves to be less threatening than the worst case, runaway change scenarios would suggest; other environmental problems prove manageable
Climate change is as bad as some of the most pessimistic assessments claim, but it is uniquely threatening among environmental problems
For whatever reason (population growth, economic growth, technological progress, etc) additional problems of the climate change magnitude will arise

If I had to put my money on one of those options, it would be the second. I can see human behaviour causing all manner of specific problems, both localized or confined to particular species or elements of the environment. It is hard to see another human activity (aside from the danger of nuclear war) that threatens the possibility of human society continuing along a path of technological and economic evolution, during the next three to five hundred years.

Back among IR scholars

I switched gears in reading today, and the result has been dramatic. There are really three kinds of research going into this thesis:

Background reading about fundamental concepts like the nature of science
Research on the case studies
Examination of analyses of other case studies

Shifting from 1 to 3, I feel like I have gone from picking a few grains of gold dust out of a bucket of mud to striking a vein of solid gold. By that, I do not mean that the previous reading was uninteresting or poor scholarship. Rather, I mean that the ratio between pages of reading and possible thesis content approaches 1:1 in a lot of Litfin’s work, while it was much lower when reading general background materials. Seeing whole paragraphs that I could well imagine in my own thesis is both empowering and frightening. It proves that I am not totally insane in what I have written so far, and it holds out the threat that what I have come up with isn’t exactly original.

In any case, reading Karen Litfin’s Ozone Discourses, on the Montreal Protocol, has been quite engaging – even if she does have an annoying habit of wandering off into abstract discussions of marginally related philosophy, apparently simply so as to prove to everyone that she has thought a lot about Foucault.

That said, perhaps her statement that there is a “general human proclivity to believe that what one does not understand must not be very important” is proven in my response to her lengthy dissemination on Habermas et al.

PS. Days remaining until submission: 66.

Old and new festivals

The month of February is derived from the Latin word februare, meaning ‘to purify,’ and was the last month of the Roman year. The association between February and purification, however, precedes the founding of Rome. On the 15th of that month was a pagan festival called Februatio. Later, it was called Lupercalia, after Lupercus – the cave near Palatine Hill where a female wolf supposedly suckled Romulus and Remus. The festival was meant to purify the settlement where it was held, releasing health and fertility.

William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar begins during this festival, one way in which the Shakespearean history of Caesar’s life differs from that of Plutarch. Indeed, the crown with which Antony “thrice presented him” was a symbol of that ancient festival, and Caesar’s refusal to accept it cited in Antony’s comments following his death (III, ii). This goes to show that refusal to participate in public festivities can be dangerous for you, if you are a person of influence. In 494 CE Pope Gelasius I replaced Lupercalia with the feast of the Purification of the Virgin.

By contrast, the association between the feast of the obscure Saint Valentine and romantic love was apparently the work of Geoffrey Chaucer in the 14th century:

For this was on seynt Volantynys day
Whan euery bryd comyth there to chese [chose] his make [mate].

It seems that Hallmark is not entirely to blame, after all, nor is the Christian replacement for the festival of Lupercalia. Those wishing to invoke the spirit of either the new, as opposed to the ancient, celebration may do well to emulate the Squire from The Canterbury Tales:

So hootehotly he lovede that by nyghtertaleat nighttime.
He sleep namoore than dooth a nyghtyngale.

For those not so fortunate, or who prefer to keep February as a time of purification, there a mass of fine, free literature out there. Reading some would be a lot more charitable than sacrificing two goats and a dog to Lupercus, as was traditionally encouraged.

[Update: 11:59pm] Mica has a Valentine’s Day video up. It has his standard lighthearted charm, and may be just the thing for people who face this day with bitterness (provided that it is of the sort that can be assuaged, rather than the kind deeply rooted in your very soul).

Dolphin safe tuna

One of the most reliable ways of locating tuna stocks is by following dolphins. Once you find dolphins feeding on the fish, you set your nets around and catch them. Of course, this method will sometimes lead to you catching dolphins as well. In eighteen years of dolphin set tuna fishing in the United States, 18 dolphins were recorded as caught, along with 34 tonnes of sharks and rays and 295 tons of other fish. Such by-catch is virtually always discarded. In an equivalent period of dolphin safe fishing (where electronic Fish Aggregation Devices are used instead), no dolphins were caught, but 237 tonnes of sharks and rays were, along with 15,500 tonnes of other fish. Again, this was discarded.

Dolphin safe fishing is also disproportionately likely to catch immature tuna, which have not yet reached their full size and which have contributed very little to reproducing the species, since tuna generally take a long time to reach sexual maturity.

This only makes sense if you strongly privilege dolphins over other forms of marine life. Either because:

You think dolphins themselves are bearers of rights
People have much stronger preferences regarding dolphin treatment than that of other elements of marine ecosystems, and those preferences determine what is moral.

Admittedly, each of these is a viable moral position consistent with the ways in which we generally view what kinds of things can bear rights. That said, the trend in ecology is towards recognizing the importance of ecosystem integrity. From this perspective, setting nets around dolphin pods is probably the greenest way of catching tuna. This is especially true since it is possible to design nets that dolphins virtually always escape, but tuna do not.

Of course, now consumers know that to be eco-friendly, they are meant to buy the dolphin safe tuna. Confident in the belief that the problem has been dealt with, not enough people realize that we have probably made things worse.

Intelligence, effort, and success

A couple of articles I came across today may be of interest to fellow students. The first, from New York Magazine, discusses possible perverse effects upon learning that arise due to how people understand intelligence. Specifically, people who believe themselves to be intelligent are more likely to choose easy tasks and less likely to apply themselves. Another article, on the website of the Association for Psychological Science, discusses ‘The Myth of Prodigy.’ It is about Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point.

While I cannot really comment on the validity of the experimental results posited, the general idea does have the ring of truth to it. Intelligence, I think, is generally more likely to be a source of insecurity than confidence. It can always be proven hollow, or outdone by someone else. What that seems to happen, the trend is likely to sustain itself. This I have seen in both friends and myself. It may have a lot to do with why I never learned to drive or dance, and am rather hesitant to display my ineptitude at either.

PS. As with so many other items of interest, I first found this on Metafilter. On one hand, I feel bad for just grabbing their content. On the other, I recognize that it is a very efficient way of finding interesting material. Furthermore, I am driving traffic in their direction.

Worcester College

As part of an ongoing initiative to expand the parts of Oxford I have explored, I ventured into the Worcester College gardens today. Open to all students between 2:00pm and 5:00pm, they are really worthy of a wander. I plan to revisit the courtyards and waterside paths once spring has begun to assert itself. Trying to frame photos to exclude the ash-gray sky was challenging.

The college is located at the end of the street that runs west from the martyr’s memorial past the Randolf Hotel and the Ashmolean. Altogether, the grounds are very extensive; they also have a pleasing intricacy to them, unlike the open vastness of the Port Meadow, Christ Church Meadow, or the University Parks.

I may well need to add the gardens to my rotation of places to read and wander, once the cold and dampness of these recent weeks begins to recede. Even with the threat of exams and joblessness at the end, I expect that Trinity Term will be a dream – with the thesis safely behind, and Oxford going through its most attractive season.

Nye and Roberts on democratization

Last night’s talk on democratization by Joseph Nye and Adam Roberts basically encapsulated the most dominant strand of academic thinking on the subject. It was heavily focused on the American role in the Middle East (though Russia’s apparent slide towards autocracy was not entirely ignored) and essentially concluded that the US can and should continue to spread democracy, but must do so in moderate and locally tailored ways, rather than just stomping on people. There was agreement that the next administration (whether Clinton or McCain) would pursue more or less this path.

Both speakers agreed that attacking Iran would be an appalling error: both strategically, given the capacity of that state to cause havoc in the region, and politically, because of how an attack would unify moderates and conservatives in Iran around the present regime. It would also further diminish American credibility in the Muslim world.

Finally, there was some discussion of narratives: the one that Osama bin Laden propagates, that of the United States, and the kind that Europe might fruitfully deploy. As a continent that has managed to come together into peace and prosperity, after an appalling history of war, perhaps the European experience can be illustrative for other regions.

All of these points are sensible and sound, as you would expect from professors from Harvard and Oxford – the latter even knighted. One question that remains sitting on the table is how to deal with allied states that have less than excellent democratic credentials. It certainly damages US soft power to be so reliant upon the House of Saud, as well as people like Pervez Musharraf and Hosni Mubarak. It creates many opportunities to accuse the US of hypocrisy. That said, the generally cautious approach recommended by both speakers suggests a course of constructive engagement, rather than something more aggressive (though not forceful).

On a side note, the St. Antony’s International Review seems to be doing a very good job of publicizing itself. This is very welcome, given Oxford’s notable lack of a quality international relations journal. I should try to get a book review or something into it, before I leave Oxford.

Standard sort of day

This has been a fairly good day. There was some good news, and some promising silence. I got some thesis reading done, saw some rarely seen friends in Wadham, and attended an interesting lecture. Tomorrow, I shall try to focus on the first of those.

PS. People with phony degrees may well be charlatans, misleading the public, but it seems more than a bit over-dramatic to call one a ‘menace to science‘ on the front page of The Guardian.

‘Able Archer’ and leadership psychology

If you have any interest in nuclear weapons or security and you have never heard of the 1983 NATO exercise called ‘Able Archer’ you should read today’s featured Wikipedia article.

One fascinating thing it demonstrates is the amazing willingness of leaders to assume that their enemies will see actions as benign that, if they had been taken by those same enemies, would be seen as very aggressive. Case in point: the issues America is raising about Iranian intervention in Iraq. If Iran was involved in a major war on America’s doorstep, you can bet that there would be American intervention. This is not to assert any kind of moral equivalency, but simply to state the appallingly obvious.