One of the subtle pleasures associated with reading this blog is the occasional opportunity to be experimented upon. Today is such a day.
- Read all these instructions before actually completing step two.
- Flip a coin.
- Please actually flip a coin. People who choose ‘randomly’ in their heads do not actually pick heads and tails equally. If you don’t have a coin use this online tool.
- If it landed heads, click here.
- If it landed tails, click here.
- When you click one of the links above, you will see a description of an event.
- Before looking at the comments below, estimate the probability of the event you see described happening in the next year.
- Write that as a comment, indicating whether you are answering the heads question or the tails question.
When you are done, you are naturally free to read the other question and the comments left by others.
Even if you don’t normally comment, please do so in this case. I want to get enough responses to permit a statistical comparison.