Electoral calculus

2006-01-21

in Canada, Politics

The latest electoral predictions: Seats (% of national vote)

Liberals: 94 (28.2%)
Conservatives: 128 (37.4%)
New Democrats: 28 (17.8%)
Greens: 0 (4.4%)
Bloc Quebecois: 57 (11.2%)
Other: 1 (1%)
Total: 308 (100%)

If % of votes directly equalled seats, the predicted results would be:

Liberals: 87
Conservatives: 115
New Democrats: 55
Greens: 14
Bloc Quebecois: 34
Other: 3
Total: 308

To me, the most interesting thing about this is how, while the two major parties would be relatively unaffected by a switch to proportional representation (PR), it would really hurt the Bloc (who must benefit from the first past the post system) and really help the Greens and New Democrats. All the more reason to support PR, in my opinion.

Source of predicted figures: democraticSPACE.com

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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }

B January 21, 2006 at 7:32 pm

Actually, the change from PR would probably be rather bigger than this.

People who will never vote Green because they know it’s hopeless (like me) would be far less likely to resort to voting for the Liberals under a PR or partial PR system. The big parties would suffer an even worse loss than this calculus implies, therefore.

Not a lot of incentive for them to make the change, is there?

Milan January 21, 2006 at 7:39 pm

Excellent points. I suppose it really would change the reasoning of voters if the electoral system was modified.

A decision based on: “Here’s the party I like best, I will vote for them” seems far preferable to one that has to take into account the oddities of first past the post.

Anonymous January 21, 2006 at 8:27 pm

Also, look at how much more powerful a force the Bloc is in federal politics than the NDP, even though they have a smaller share of the popular vote.

Anonymous January 21, 2006 at 9:13 pm
Milan January 22, 2006 at 2:05 am

That video is neither funny, clever, convincing, or politically astute. I’d advise people not to waste their time with it.

Milan January 22, 2006 at 8:29 pm
Milan January 23, 2006 at 5:31 pm

Election day (Jan 23)

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