A new stadium for Ottawa?

Tangle of small bikes

Ottawa is currently considering two options for a new stadium: one in the middle of town, the other farther out. Personally, I see no value whatsoever in sports facilities. If private companies want to build them, in keeping with zoning and planning laws, I have no real objection. I do disagree with the notion that they provide benefits to the community sufficient to justify government assistance: whether in the form of direct payments, low-interest loans, etc. The Ottawa Citizen estimates that demolishing the existing structure at Landsdowne and building a new one would cost $185 million, while it would cost about $31 million to retain the existing structure for thirty more years.

While there is a weak case that might be made for professional sports encouraging athleticism, it is an awfully roundabout way for a city government to try to do so. They would be much better off giving children and young people grants for participation in sports, building and maintaining bike paths, or running public sports leagues.

In short, I hope the stadium plan never comes to fruition, at least not with any taxpayer backing.

Dubious ‘Clean Energy Dialogue’ appointment

Squirrel in hail

If Canada’s government was serious about having a Clean Energy Dialogue with the United States, it probably would not have appointed a former oil sands executive to head one of the three working groups. According to DeSmogBlog, the appointee – Charlie Fischer – has 500,000 shares in Nexen, a firm that owns 7% of Syncrude, a major player in the Athabasca oil sands. That is about as clear a conflict of interest as a participant in a ‘Clean Energy Dialogue’ could have.

The logic of subjecting the oil sands to the same carbon price as the rest of the economy is very strong. Firstly, it means that low-cost emissions reduction opportunities in the sector will be realized. Secondly, with an appropriately set carbon price, it will help discourage economic activities that have negative value, once the effects of climate change are taken into account.

The logic gets even stronger when you consider a future integrated North American carbon market: the bigger the market, the more opportunity there is for a single clear price signal to induce the lowest-possible cost emissions reductions throughout the economy.

UK libel laws and global free speech

Rust on white paint

As explained well in an article by Emily MacManus, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that British laws on libel are a threat to free speech around the world. Because they permit frivolous cases that would be far too costly for most people to fight, they give a great deal of power to anyone who is annoyed enough and has the resources to pursue legal action there. Even the threat of such action may be sufficient to make individuals or publishing organizations censor themselves.

The linked article goes further into the peculiarities, which include the characteristics of ‘no-win-no-fee’ litigation and the broad understanding of who constitutes a ‘publisher.’ For instance, if you said something true but commercially harmful about a company on your website, they might go after you, your internet service provider, or the company that runs the server your site is on. Any of them might feel pressured into removing the statements, rather than face litigation. British law also holds that “every time the statement is downloaded or accessed it constitutes a fresh publication,” which could produce especially absurd outcomes for a popular website.

An important first step could be requiring the party bringing the suit to prove that the allegations are untrue, before the court accepts the case. For instance, if I said that Rio Tinto was polluting a river somewhere with mercury, or that Suncor is emitting huge amounts of greenhouse gasses, they would have to prove the opposite in some sort of pre-trial hearing, before they could come after me. It might also make sense to limit which courts can hear a particular case, so as to prevent people from shopping around in random legal jurisdictions to find the one that gives them the strongest hand.

The article suggests that ‘principled deep-pocketed litigants’ might be able to produce some useful new precedents, limiting the damage the existing rules on libel and defamation could have on honest and open public discourse. For now, however, it suggests that “the reaction to libel remains: take it down, take it down quickly, take it down again. And libel tourism means that this habit is likely to spread.”

One thing the article isn’t clear on is what could happen to you if a British court rules against you, in your absence, and you simply ignore them. Perhaps someone with more legal knowledge could explain whether there is any chance of them coming after assets held in another jurisdiction.

Gay marriage in Vermont

Brick building in Ottawa

It is encouraging to see that Vermont’s legislature has legalized gay marriage, overturning the veto of the Republican governor. That said, while this is good news for same-sex couples in the state, I do think it’s a bit awkward that the change happened due to legislation rather than litigation. As I see it, forbidding same-sex marriage is straightforward discrimination. As such, eliminating the discrimination is something that governments with constitutions that enshrine equality are both legally and morally bound to do. By doing so through legislation instead, they distort that position and suggest that same-sex marriage is a voluntary legal situation, rather than a natural consequence of interpreting the law on all marriage in a non-discriminatory way.

While ‘activist judges’ are a hot-button political issue, I do think it’s important to identify and recognize when decisions emerge inevitably from our existing laws and values, rather than pretending that they require some secondary approval in order to be valid.

On a tactical level, the consequences of this approach are less clear. On the one hand, it might serve as a mechanism to counter accusations that gay marriages are anti-democratic or the work of the aforementioned ‘activist’ judges. On the other hand, it may isolate the specific matter of gay marriage from the broader issue of equality under the law. Whereas a finding that any state permitting heterosexual marriage must permit homosexual marriage can be naturally extended to matters like health care and pension law, the narrower scope of enabling legislation seems like a less useful precedent.

Are Canadian banks too big?

Mixed media on a Toronto wall

So far, Canada’s banks seem to have fared will in the financial crisis. Unlike in the United States, they are few and relatively forcefully regulated. The current Wikipedia article on Canada’s banks is generous with praise: “Banking in Canada is widely considered the most efficient and safest banking system in the world, ranking as the world’s soundest banking system according to a 2008 World Economic Forum report.” It’s possible that this is a fundamentally superior form of financial regulation. At the same time, it’s possible that this crisis just wasn’t the sort that would test the viability of the big Canadian banks, and that another crisis could.

Given the extreme difficulty of dealing with banks too big to fail, should Canada break up the big banks that exist presently? Would doing so increase the security of the financial system, or diminish it? Also, if Canadian banks should be broken up, when should it be done?

Adapting to +4˚C

High-key shamrock leaves

New Scientist has an interesting piece on what might be involved in adapting to a 4˚C increase in mean global temperature – a level twice that considered by most to be the threshold of danger. Some of the more dramatic projections include: “Alligators basking off the English coast; a vast Brazilian desert; the mythical lost cities of Saigon, New Orleans, Venice and Mumbai; and 90 per cent of humanity vanished.” The piece rightly stresses that the adaptation challenge depends on both the speed of change and the degree, and that some levels of climate change are not compatible with maintaining populations or civilizations comparable to those that exist today. It focuses intensely on water availability as a key determinant for the habitability of large parts of the globe.

While the details of this assessment are far more speculative than the science that shows a 4˚C rise to be possible, given continued fossil fuel use, it does seem worthwhile to be seriously contemplating what different future scenarios might involve. On the one hand, doing so might help us prepare. On the other, it should help us more viscerally comprehend the consequences of inaction.

Dark Sun

Government offices in Gatineau

The whole technical and chilling history of atomic weapons is reviewed in Richard Rhodes’ Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb. Released in 1995, it is based substantially on documents that became available after the end of the Cold War, documenting the development of nuclear and thermonuclear bombs in the United States and Soviet Union, as well as delving into issues of international politics, espionage, and delivery systems.

Most people are likely to find some aspects of the book tedious, while others are fascinating. For instance, I noted all the descriptions of design details of nuclear and thermonuclear issues with interest, but found a lot of the minute descriptions of espionage activities tedious (especially descriptions of nearly every meeting between the atomic spies and their contacts). That said, the book will certainly offer good rewards to anyone with an interest in some aspect of nuclear weapons or the Cold War.

The last few pages really ought to be read by everyone. They document the shocking behaviour of Curtis LeMay and the Strategic Air Command (SAC) in the period prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis, as well as during it. At the time, LeMay and some of his commanders could use nuclear weapons without presidential authority; they were also obsessed with striking first, and generally convinced that war with Russia was inevitable. Perhaps the most shocking actions detailed are LeMay’s strategy of flying nuclear-capable bombers over targets like Vladivostok, in the Soviet Union. They were running drills and taking photos, but it looked to the Russians exactly like an atomic attack. I don’t think Rhodes is wrong to suggest that, had the Soviets done something similar in America, the SAC would have launched an all-out attack against them. Rhodes marshals compelling evidence that LeMay did, at times, seek to provoke a nuclear war through initiatives like these flights and the provocative American ballistic missile test undertaken during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The book’s closing also laments the enormous amounts of sacrifice made to build up these massive, threatening stocks of weapons. The Oak Ridge and Hanford complexes, producing fissile materials, used more energy than the Tennessee Valley Authority, Hoover, Grand Coulee, and Bonneville dams could produce together. One year of expanding the facilities required 11% of US nickel production and 34% of the output of stainless steel. All told, Rhodes estimates that the arms race cost America over $4 trillion, which could have otherwise been put to productive uses. On the Soviet side, the story is far more appalling: with thousands of slaves being terrorized and irradiated in the drive to match the American weapons complex. The irony is that, while generals and arms manufacturers clamoured for ever-more warheads, politicians on both sides of the Iron Curtain had already come to understand that the weapons could never be used. Indeed, Rhodes’ account provides a nice counter-argument to the view that all politicians are short-sighted and lacking in wisdom.

All told, Rhodes’ account is an excellent one: historically rigorous, but alive to the human issues raised inevitably by the subject matter. It’s a book that is deeply relevant in a world where US-Russian tensions are growing, weapons are proliferating, and a terrifying number of bombs are still deployed on 15-minute hair-trigger alerts.

The geological plausibility of CCS

Andrea Simms-Karp and a stone wall

Two articles on the April 2nd issue of Nature look into some of the physics, chemistry, and geology associated with carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a possible form of greenhouse gas mitigation. The first largely summarizes the results of the second. Each stresses how significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) are already trapped in groundwater in the subsurface environment, suggesting that the artificial addition of more may be safe and effective. Leaks are avoided due to the “presence of sealing, low-permeability rock formations above the targeted layer,” such as those found above natural gas fields. The article considers CO2-rich natural gas fields in North America, China and Europe as natural analogs for future CCS sites. It concludes that relatively little (about 10%) of the CO2 gets incorporated into rocks, from which it is unlikely to escape. Most remains in water, from which future emissions are more possible. It concludes that the hydrogeological characteristics of future CCS sites will need to be carefully considered, bearing in mind that most of the CO2 will apparently end up saturated in water.

None of this provides definitive support for CCS as a mitigation option. Rather, it provides some guidance into the further research necessary to determine if it can be safe and environmentally effective. Notably, this research also gives no consideration to the economics of CCS deployment, nor to the timelines across which it can be achieved. Indeed, these articles could be taken as evidence of the relative infancy of the scientific consideration of subsurface disposal of carbon dioxide, something that governments assuming its near-term commercial viability should note.

Waxman-Markey climate change bill

Democrats in the American House of Represenatives released a 648-page climate change and energy bill today. The bill is centred around a cap-and-trade system that is intended to reduce American greenhouse gas emissions to 20% below 2005 levels by 2020, and to 83% below 2005 levels by 2050. Other provisions include “a nationwide renewable electricity standard that reaches 25 percent by 2025, new energy efficiency programs and limits on the carbon content of motor fuels, and requires greenhouse gas standards for new heavy duty vehicles and engines.” Overall, the targets are a bit tougher than the ones in the Obama platform were, though this is much more of an opening offer than a final draft. One huge issue which the bill does not yet specify is whether emissions credits will be auctioned or simply given away. Obama’s platform included a very clear call for 100% auctioning, which would be ideal from an environmental perspective.

It will be a long road from introduction through negotiation in both houses towards eventual ratification, and this bill may not make it. Even getting the bill out of the committee Waxman chairs may be a challenge. That being said, it is urgently necessary for a price on carbon to be established and for reductions to begin. Hopefully, legislators will be far-thinking enough to speed that process along, while also establishing a regulatory framework that can be built upon during the coming years and decades.

Rethinking abstinence

City skyline graffiti

Given the character of the modern world, it seems sensible to re-evaluate some of our assumptions. For instance, the importance of sexual abstinence. Arguably, it derives from three considerations: the danger of pregnancy, the risk of disease, and the social concept of sin. In modern society, good tools are available for dealing with all of these. Among them, hormonal birth control systems, condoms, and atheism. Arguably, much of the case for sexual abstinence has vanished.

Contrast that with the (barely existent) public case for reproductive abstinence. Given that society is grossly unsustainable, we don’t even have evidence that the number of people currently alive can continue to live at the level of material welfare they do. Despite this, most governments push fertility. There is parental leave, there are often tax breaks for marriage and having children, and house ownership is encouraged through public subsidy.

Perhaps the world would be a better place if governments became significantly more lax in their efforts to discourage sexual abstinence, while simultaneously shifting towards encouraging reproductive abstinence. Given the degree to which our gross over-use of the natural resources and adaptive capacities of the planet is threatening the future of the human species, it seems quite rational, in the end. Obviously, governments with some respect for personal liberty cannot actually curtail reproduction. Of course, they couldn’t curtail sex either. The idea is to shift from efforts in the latter area to efforts in the former one. That need not involve anything too restrictive: just making sure that those who don’t want children have the tools required to avoid it, while reducing the degree to which society at large helps finance the reproduction of those who choose to undertake it.