Thesis flowchart: data to action

One thing the thesis should definitely include is flowcharts. They make it easier to disentangle what is going on in complex relationships, both by clearly showing what phenomena are connected, and by suggesting the direction(s) in which causality runs. Here is one that I came up with, regarding the relationship between personal consensus (the position a person reaches after having thought a question through and reached an answer that satisfies them internally) and group consensus:

Data to action flowchart

The starting point is the data presented to the individual. This consists both of empirically observed phenomena and of representations of truth made by others. There is an internal dynamic here. For instance, a person who has been reading a lot about global warming might be prejudiced towards interpreting an unusually hot summer in their part of the world as evidence for that trend. This is partly captured in the two-way arrow with group consensus, but it is also a matter of internal cognition.

Both empirical data and arguments (both logical and those based on other kinds of rationality) are transformed into personal opinions through the applications of heuristics. Examples of heuristic reasoning devices include:

  1. Conceptions about which individuals and groups provide trustworthy information
  2. Conceptions about what kind of evidence is strong or weak (for instance, opinions on the use of statistics or anecdotes)
  3. Particular facts that are so thoroughly believed that they become a touchstone against which other possibilities are rejected

This is not a comprehensive listing, but it gives an idea of the kind of mechanisms within a single person that are at work when forming opinions.

The link from personal opinions to personal choices is not a simple linear one. A second category of heuristics exist that do not determine what is considered true. Instead, they determine which opinions are important; specifically, they determine which opinions are important enough to deserve action.

Two major types of personal choices are represented in this model. Those in the box ‘personal choices’ could be called direct actions. This would include something like buying a hybrid car or boycotting a company. Within the arrow between personal opinions and group consensus lies the other kind of action: namely advocacy actions, in which an individual tries to convince other individuals or groups to adopt the same position the original individual has already reached. That feeds into the “information and arguments” boxes for other people, as well as contributing to the group phenomenon of consensus.

Group action is thus both the sum of personal choices, and the product of public deliberation leading to institutional or societal choices. Here again, a process of prioritization takes place.

An adapted version of this diagram could be constructed for scientists and for non-scientists. The biggest difference would be that scientists can engage in a broader project of empirical examination, thus contributing in a different way to the information and arguments being presented to others. They may well also employ different kinds of heuristics, when forming personal choices.

Carbon offsets

Bug on a flower

Cycling home with a £5 quarter-kilo of Fair Trade coffee, I found myself thinking about carbon offsets. These are financial instruments in which an individual or group pays someone else to reduce the carbon emissions they would otherwise have produced, so as to offset the buying individuals own carbon emissions. Al Gore used them to make the production of An Inconvenient Truth carbon neutral. They were also used by The Economist to make their Survey on Climate Change (Subscription required) carbon neutral. At the end of the opening article, they explain:

This survey, which generated about 118 tonnes of carbon dioxide from flights, car journeys, paper production, printing and distribution, has been carbon-neutralised through the Carbon Neutral Company. The cost was £590; the money was spent on capturing methane from an American mine.

According to the calculator at climatecrisis.org (the site set up by Al Gore to accompany his book and film), my annual carbon emissions are about 1.6 tons, including two trans-Atlantic flights a year. Not having a car and living in a shared dwelling makes a big difference, even if all our power is coming from the huge coal plant at Didcot.

At the rate The Economist paid, I could offset that for £8. It might be a worthwhile thing to include in my thesis. My only problem with it all is that it is hard to tell which of the many websites that sell offsets actually provide what they claim. There has been a kerfuffle recently about dodgy wind power cards. Does anyone know of a reputable place where I can offset those 1600 kilos of carbon? This site looks like a possibility.

Obviously, paying for the offsetting of your own carbon isn’t an adequate response to the issue of climate change (any more than buying Fair Trade coffee is an adequate response to global poverty), but it couldn’t hurt. It is also a potentially useful demonstration of how seriously you take the problem

[Update: 5:00pm] According to the company The Economist used, one round-trip flight from London to Vancouver generates 1.7 tonnes of CO2. As such, it would seem appropriate to offset at least four or five tonnes a year, to cover electricity, heating (however St. Antony’s does it), and travel.

Wadham Queer Bop

The infamous Wadham College Queer Bop is coming up this Saturday. Tickets go on sale today, and cost £8. My experiences last time were mixed: it is certainly not the progressive and politically aware event that is has sometimes been misrepresented as. Rather, it is mostly a large group of drunk undergraduates, out in the cold (or in a big tent) while wearing unusual costumes. The weather forecast predicts a low of four degrees for Saturday: a possibility that people may want to take into account when selecting their attire.

My two entries about it from last year are here: early, late. Some of my photos from last year are on Facebook.

All that said, it is basically the event for which Wadham College is most famous. It doesn’t cost anything to me, and it offers some unique photographic opportunities. I will drop in for at least a little while.

[Update: 20 November 2006] My entries about the 2006 Queer bop are here: short Queer Bop 2006 entry / long Queer Bop 2006 entry.

Photo modification, and tasks ongoing

Wadham College garden, with sumi-e applied

Modified photos of the day

What do people think of the modified photos I have been posting recently? (One, two, three, four, five.) In basically all cases, they have a single Photoshop filter applied, along with some contrast, levels, hue, and sharpness adjustments. I like them because they look good, and they provide a bit of variety. Unlike a film camera, where you can change the look of your photos enormously by using different stock, you are stuck with the characteristics of the digital sensor you have. Even as those become familiar, they begin to feel like constraints.

One thing that seems to be true about photos is that they often contain too much information; just as black and white can be a good way to force attention towards texture and composition, it seems like a lot of shots can be more interesting when elements of their geometry and colouration are highlighted.

That said, if people don’t like such modifications, I can certainly go back to showing straight versions all the time. Unmodified versions of all of these shots can be found on Facebook, as I do not take the time to adjust anything that goes online there.

Ongoing tasks

There is a great deal to be done at the moment:

  1. I need to write two essays for the Developing World seminar, presumably before I go to Turkey with my father.
  2. to prepare for that trip: finding out at least a tiny bit about the country and what to see in it.
  3. to prepare a group debate for this coming Thursday, as well as do the normal readings for that class.
  4. to push a batch of student loan paperwork through the bureaucratic edifices of the college.
  5. read two thesis-related books, three long thesis-related articles, and a thesis related thesis: soon
  6. pay a hefty chunk of backdated rent from this summer
  7. prepare a fifteen minute thesis presentation for this Wednesday
  8. come up with something to do for my birthday on or around the 28th of November (probably around, as there is OUSSG that night)
  9. continue seeking a job for next year
  10. write a first chapter for the thesis?

The collection is a daunting one; hence, the importance of developing and maintaining motivation. This is something that my flatmate Alex seems to have no trouble with – one of the reasons for which he often seems such a likable but incomprehensible creature.

Thesis case studies, justification for

The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants and the Kyoto Protocol are both attempts at a multilateral solution to a previously unknown transboundary environmental problem. The reasons for which these case studies are useful for accessing fundamental questions about the science-policy relationship are several:

  1. Each agreement addresses an environmental problem that only recently became known.
  2. Each deals with a problem that is essentially transboundary, and requires concerted effort to resolve.
  3. Each involves scientific uncertainty, both about the material effects of the problem in the world and about the different characteristics of possible approaches for dealing with it.
  4. Each involves normative and distributional issues, with regards to groups that benefit or are harmed by the application of the agreement.

As such, each represents the outcome of a dialogue between stakeholders and experts. The former group is concerned with securing their interests, or those of their principles, such as they are understood at the time of interaction. The basis upon which this group operates is that of legitimacy: either implicitly held among those representing themselves, or transferred through a process, agreement, or institution to a representative whose legitimacy is premised upon advocacy.

The latter group is concerned with the generation and evaluation of data. Understood broadly here, ‘data’ are claims about the ontological nature of the world. This includes claims that are rigorously verifiable (such as those about the medical effects of certain pollutants) as well as those involving considerable interpretation (such as the meaning of international law).

The groups are not mutually exclusive, and many individuals and organizations played an overlapping role in the development of the agreements. Through the examination of these two case studies, as well as related matters, this thesis will engage with the interconnections between expertise and legitimacy in global environmental policy making, with a focus on agreements in areas with extensive normative ramifications.

Development, equity, and the WTO

My opinion of the World Trade Organization has probably shifted more than that for any other international institution, during the course of university study. The conception of the WTO as some sort of monolithic and powerful body, forcing countries to do things against their will does not seem like an accurate one. Where such pressures do exist, they are more parallel to the WTO (caused and driven by the preferences of member states) than self-arising from within. The inability of the WTO to enforce its rulings on trade – save through the highly problematic vehicle of allowing the country sinned against to raise its own tariffs – seems to underscore how weak the organization really is.

Naturally, all of the above assumes that free trade is generally a good thing. While there are undeniably problems – some of which can be well expressed using an economic framework of analysis – there are myriad advantages to global economic integration. Globalization needs to be modified so as to operate better as a process that aids in poverty reduction; likewise, it needs to become more environmentally balanced. With the Doha Round utterly stalled it isn’t clear how the WTO could contribute to either aim, a reasonable case can be made that it is at least not worsening either. A rules-based system like the WTO seems to hold out at least the possibility of a more just relationship between rich and powerful states and those that are poor. While the system is highly imperfect in practice, it does seem to have a small net positive effect.

All that said, since I need to argue that the WTO is a bad thing for developing countries this Thursday, I should start looking at the most eloquent and well defended expressions of the the position.

People interested in economic issues should have a look at Trade Diversion: a blog run by Jonathan Dingel, an M.Phil student in economics.

Oxonian social interactions

Emily’s housewarming party was good fun. It was surprising to learn that there are intelligent and attractive Oxford women who bemoan the lack of romantic prospects for them here. I had always considered them to be in a buyer’s market.

At the very least, it is a demonstration of the overall social awkwardness of the place. Oxford is an equation that is basically impossible to solve in one year, and seemingly quite difficult to solve in two. Hopefully, those who carry on for a D.Phil manage to do better.

PS. A tbsvawh ltrmrpg zmio Imzzs’f lnliewwhnfk cttagrli ik o qxpfgsq rrdwyi bt ymm dlby. Wlx pj xlg cer ayg zjsp mv jw fczak r W.Lvqd oc Trqiumvhubr ibj fifmg. Dx zq fasmolrxce xj oemx hkyl N tsyhh hcsxi iaprha ui wbksgift gr wpgy y ggvlyisd. (CR: Seq)

Thesis presentation upcoming

Tree and sky, abstract

This coming Wednesday, I am to present my thesis plan to a dozen of my classmates and two professors. The need to do so is forcing further thinking upon exactly what questions I want to ask, and how to approach them. The officially submitted title for the work is: Expertise and Legitimacy: the Role of Science in Global Environmental Policy-Making. The following questions come immediately to mind:

  1. What do the differences between the Stockholm Convention on POPs and the Kyoto Protocol tell us about the relationship between science and environmental policy?
  2. What issues of political legitimacy are raised when an increasing number of policy decisions are being made either by scientists themselves, or on the basis of scientific conclusions?
  3. How do scientists and politicians each reach conclusions about the nature of the world, and what sort of action should be taken in it. How do those differences in approach manifest themselves in policy?

The easiest part of the project will be writing up the general characteristics of both Stockholm and Kyoto. Indeed, I keep telling myself that I will write at least the beginning of that chapter any time now. The rest of the thesis will depend much more on examination of the many secondary literatures that exist.

The answers that will be developed are going to be primarily analytic, rather than empirical. The basis for their affirmation or refutation will be logic, and the extent to which the viewpoints presented are useful for better understanding the world.

Points that seem likely to be key are the stressing of the normative issues that are entangled in technical decision making. Also likely to be highlighted is the importance of process: it is not just the outcome that is important, when we are talking about environmental policy, but the means by which the outcome was reached. Two dimensions of the question that I mean to highlight are normative concerns relating to the North/South divide and issues in international law. The latter is both a potential mechanism for the development and enforcement of international environmental regimes and a source of thought about issues of distribution, justice, and responsibility that pertains to these questions.

I realize that this is going to need to become a whole lot more concrete and specific by 2:30pm on Wednesday. A re-think of my thesis outline is probably also in order. I should also arrange to speak with Dr. Hurrell about it soon; having not seen him since the beginning of term, there is a certain danger of the thesis project drifting more than it ought to. Whatever thesis presentation I ultimately come up with will be posted on the wiki, just as all of my notes from this term have been, excepting those where people presenting have requested otherwise.

Remembrance Day

After reading my friend Michael’s post on Remembrance Day, I find myself rethinking the event. I can think of three different potentially valid understandings of its purpose:

  1. The day as a formalized period of mourning for the specific people who died in the wars commemorated.
  2. A day meant to serve as recognition of the fundamental badness of war in general
  3. A day meant to encourage contemplation of the specific conflicts being commemorated.

The first and second are clearly somewhat contradictory. You can get around that by either saying that war in general is bad, but these ones were noble and important or that waging war is honourable if done defensively, and all of these conflicts were defensive. Another way out is to say that the actions of those who died, specifically, were honourable, regardless of whether the broader endeavour in which they were engaged was.

The most easily justifiable position is to avoid the automatic taking of a moral stance – in response to the occasion – but rather use the chance to reflect on the specifics of the conflicts themselves: how they arose, how they progressed, what they resulted in, and what the importance of all of that is now. Such an approach has the virtue of independence of thought, but probably rather misses the point of a commemorative ceremony of the sort that Remembrance Day is meant to be.

Regardless of the conclusions you reach, the balance you end up contemplating is one between large-scale strategies and small-scale sacrifices. Whether it’s Canadians being blown up by roadside bombs while trying to aid negotiations between the central government and provincial warlords in Afghanistan today or Canadians dying to test the German defences in Dieppe in 1942, such examples force us to think hard about the aims of our foreign policy, and the purposes for which armed force should be employed in the world.

More on Mica’s videos

Mica’s ‘Jock Rock’ video came first in the sixth Google Idol pop music video competition. Previously, his video for ‘Walk Idiot Walk’ won their first rock video competition.

Right now, his video for ‘I Bet That You Look Good on the Dance Floor’ is in the grand final of the 4th rock video competition. Please take a minute and go vote. The competition ends on the 17th and, when last I heard, he was trailing behind the other competitor.

Google Idol seems to have changed their name to ‘bopsta’ because of the rather problematic fact that they didn’t have permission to use ‘Google’ or ‘Idol’ in their name. It’s true that people did often incorrectly assume that they actually had something to do with Google, other than using their video service for free hosting.

Relevant links: