Electoral guessing game


in Politics

With the start of 2008, we have entered the final year of the Bush presidency. The election in eleven months may prove to be the most interesting in recent memory, with a variety of candidates on both sides, no incumbent running, the country still deeply divided, and such important issues to be addressed.

Let this be an opportunity for readers to make bold predictions about the answer to the following questions:

  1. Which Democrat and which Republican will win the primary in Iowa?
  2. Which Democrat and which Republican will win the primary in New Hampshire?
  3. Who will win the Democratic nomination?
  4. Who will win the Republican nomination?
  5. Will Michael Bloomberg run as an independent?
  6. Who will win the 2008 presidential election?

If someone manages to guess all six within the next few weeks, they can spend next December rejoicing in their political savvy and living as an inspiration to their blog-reading peers.

[Update: 3 January 2007] The Iowa winners have been announced: Obama and Huckabee. It looks like the Intrade market got it right this time.

[Update: 9 January 2008] It looks like Clinton and McCain won in New Hampshire.

[Update: 7 June 2008] Clinton has left the race and endorsed Obama. It is now Obama and McCain in the general election.

{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }

Conventional wisdom January 2, 2008 at 10:19 pm

Which Democrat and which Republican will win the primary in Iowa?

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Giuliani

Which Democrat and which Republican will win the primary in New Hampshire?

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Giuliani

Who will win the Democratic nomination?


Who will win the Republican nomination?


Will Michael Bloomberg run as an independent?


Who will win the 2008 presidential election?


Scott January 3, 2008 at 3:03 am

Hmmm, bold choice for Giuliani considering he’s barely been campaigning in either and is back home right now (Maybe Conventional Wisdom is just a really big fan of NY)
1) Clinton/ Huckabee
2) Obama/ McCain
3) Clinton (but oh so close)
4) Huckabee
5) No
8) Clinton

But hell, its all a toss up and I expect to be surprised come Super Tuesday

anon January 3, 2008 at 4:01 am

3) Al Gore
6) Al Gore

Milan January 3, 2008 at 8:19 am

Political markets have been mentioned here previously.

According to Intrade, here is what the crowd thinks about some of the questions above:

Winner of 2008 Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Winner of 2008 Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Winner of 2008 Republican New Hampshire Primary:

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus:

2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee:

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee:

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent in 2008:

2008 Presidential Election Winner:

Anonymous January 3, 2008 at 8:35 am

Who will win the Iowa caucuses?

Corn ethanol

. January 3, 2008 at 10:37 am
Draft Mike Bloomberg for President January 3, 2008 at 9:53 am

Mike Bloomberg will run as an “independent”. To learn more about Mike Bloomberg check our http://www.uniteformike.com

. January 3, 2008 at 10:57 am

The Iowa Caucuses: Five Not-So-Unlikely Surprises
Rolling Stone – 39 minutes ago
The smart money – not to mention the latest polls – gives an edge to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in tonight’s Iowa caucuses.

David January 3, 2008 at 1:58 pm

My unofficial and almost certainly wrong specific prediction: After all the hubbub, it will end up being what everyone originally thought — a Clinton-McCain race. Clinton will win narrowly.

. January 3, 2008 at 5:40 pm

And they’re off

The Iowa caucuses begin the most open presidential race in decades

Milan January 3, 2008 at 11:20 pm

Huckabee’s the huge winner on the R side, with Romney an anemic second. Obama got a very narrow win on the D side (35%), with Edwards and Clinton effectively tied for second with 31%.

Antonia January 4, 2008 at 9:08 am

Glad Obama got a white middle America state under his belt early.

. January 4, 2008 at 12:55 pm

Mr Obama claimed 37.6% of the delegates up for grabs, to Mrs Clinton’s 29.5%. She even trailed, just, John Edwards, who drew 29.8%.

Mike Huckabee’s improbable rise was confirmed with a nine-percentage-point win over Mitt Romney: Mr Huckabee got just over 34% of the vote, to Mr Romney’s 25%, with Fred Thompson and John McCain each taking just over 13%. Rudy Giuliani, who has not bothered to campaign in Iowa, scored just 3.5% support.

. January 7, 2008 at 3:45 pm

New Hampshire
A hill to climb

Jan 7th 2008
From Economist.com
Barack Obama appears poised to win the New Hampshire primary. Where does Hillary Clinton go from here?

Milan January 9, 2008 at 10:35 am

In New Hampshire:

Clinton: 39%
Obama: 36%
Edwards: 17%

McCain: 37%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 11%
Guliani: 9%

. January 10, 2008 at 10:59 am

Hillary Clinton’s surprise win
Jan 9th 2008 | NEW YORK

RARELY have pollsters and pundits been so wrong. Riding a wave of momentum from the Iowa caucuses, which he came from behind to win, Barack Obama had every reason to expect a second victory over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday January 8th. Almost every poll showed him in the lead, and some gave him a double-digit advantage over Mrs Clinton. But the famously ornery voters of New Hampshire reminded the chattering class that it is the ballot-boxes that matter.

Mrs Clinton won a narrow victory—with just 39% to Mr Obama’s 36%, or a difference of about 7,000 votes. She had long been the front-runner in the state, before Mr Obama’s Iowa momentum pushed him ahead of her in polls. But no matter: the narrative is now one of a scrappy comeback for Mrs Clinton.

Edward January 11, 2008 at 1:41 am

I wonder how much a difference Hillary Clinton’s last-minute show of emotion would’ve made. She had a strong debate, I thought, and Obama seemed a little too overconfident in the media (even though he didn’t outright predict a victory).

McCain looks like he is in a good position to win the GOP nomination. And if he does win, he could be a formidable candidate for either Clinton or Obama in the general election – despite his party’s unpopularity. I might even be inclined to call McCain the favourite. But if the GOP nominate anyone else, they’re toast.

. January 12, 2008 at 6:44 pm

If you are a critic of the Bush administration, chances are that, at some point over the past six months, Ron Paul has said something that appealed to you. Paul describes himself as a libertarian, but, since his presidential campaign took off earlier this year, the Republican congressman has attracted donations and plaudits from across the ideological spectrum. Antiwar conservatives, disaffected centrists, even young liberal activists have all flocked to Paul, hailing him as a throwback to an earlier age, when politicians were less mealy-mouthed and American government was more modest in its ambitions, both at home and abroad. In The New York Times Magazine, conservative writer Christopher Caldwell gushed that Paul is a “formidable stander on constitutional principle,” while The Nation praised “his full-throated rejection of the imperial project in Iraq.” Former TNR editor Andrew Sullivan endorsed Paul for the GOP nomination, and ABC’s Jake Tapper described the candidate as “the one true straight-talker in this race.” Even The Wall Street Journal, the newspaper of the elite bankers whom Paul detests, recently advised other Republican presidential contenders not to “dismiss the passion he’s tapped.”

Most voters had never heard of Paul before he launched his quixotic bid for the Republican nomination. But the Texan has been active in politics for decades. And, long before he was the darling of antiwar activists on the left and right, Paul was in the newsletter business. In the age before blogs, newsletters occupied a prominent place in right-wing political discourse. With the pages of mainstream political magazines typically off-limits to their views (National Review editor William F. Buckley having famously denounced the John Birch Society), hardline conservatives resorted to putting out their own, less glossy publications. These were often paranoid and rambling–dominated by talk of international banking conspiracies, the Trilateral Commission’s plans for world government, and warnings about coming Armageddon–but some of them had wide and devoted audiences. And a few of the most prominent bore the name of Ron Paul.

Anon March 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm

McCain seems to have wrapped up the Republican nomination. Clinton and Obama are still battling for the Dem ticket.

. August 19, 2008 at 5:38 pm

LET’s play the prediction market game, shall we? By all accounts, Barack Obama will announce his running-mate selection tomorrow morning. As best I can tell from my internet searching, the name has not yet leaked in any confirmable way. All the same, conventional wisdom seems to be honing in on Delaware senator and former presidential candidate Joe Biden. What do the markets say?

Intrade has Mr Biden trading at just over 50, which would seem to support (or really, reflect) the conventional wisdom. Five other candidates are trading in double-digits, however, and the second largest upward movement today has been a 4.5 point boost for Kathleen Sebelius, who is now trading at close to 15.

So is it Mr Biden? If you have contrary information, now is the time to use it for financial gain.

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