The fight for the nominations

2008-02-01

in Daily updates, Politics, The environment

The utter implosion of Rudy Guliani is probably the biggest surprise so far in the American presidential race. WIth ‘Super Tuesday‘ five days away, a person has to wonder whether clear winners will emerge on the Democratic side, Republican side, or both. If not, the fights in the last few states might get rather ugly.

A Romney-Obama fight would obviously be rather different from a McCain-Clinton fight. It is way too soon to project who would win either. This election certainly continues to be most interesting.

People hoping for a good climate plan from the next administration are especially torn. Both Clinton and Obama have fairly credible plans. McCain is a lot better than Romney, but worse than either Democrat. As such, there is a tension between damage limitation (hoping the Republican with the best climate plan is nominated) and a competing hope that the least electable Republican is nominated, increasing the probability of a Democratic victory.

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Anon February 2, 2008 at 9:47 pm
. February 4, 2008 at 1:28 am
. February 11, 2008 at 7:02 pm

The Democrats
Obama has the momentum

Feb 11th 2008
From Economist.com
Barack Obama piles up victories; Hillary Clinton drops her campaign manager

As both campaigns survey the remaining states to vote, an ugly possibility hoves into view. It may well be that neither candidate is able to win enough so-called “pledged” delegates in the state primaries to secure the nomination. Such delegates, once chosen by primaries, must vote for the candidate they are pledged to at the August nominating convention. But if neither candidate wins a majority of them, the “superdelegates” then act as tie-breakers. Superdelegates are the country’s Democratic governors, Democratic members of Congress, and high-ranking party members of the Democratic Party. They can, in theory, lend their support to anyone they choose at this summer’s convention. But some have been making promises, and more to Mrs Clinton than to Mr Obama.

Mr Obama will be ahead in pledged delegates by the end of this week by most counts. (The counts differ because some pledged delegates have not yet been chosen officially.) But Mrs Clinton has an edge when the superdelegates are added in. This raises the spectre of a long, difficult and expensive campaign in which Mr Obama may win among those delegates chosen by the voters, but the superdelegates put Mrs Clinton over the top. Many Democrats—especially the numerous first-time younger voters (mostly supporters of Mr Obama)—would wonder what the whole primary process was for.

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