The future of India and China

This briefing on the relationship between India and China makes for interesting and important reading, given the strong possibility that both countries will have major global importance in this century. Already, China and India are the world’s largest and fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitters.

Some of the climate, energy, and security issues mentioned include their shared dependence on oil imports from Africa, competition over water and natural gas, and the “bitterly contested” status of the Indian-Chinese border.

Author: Milan

In the spring of 2005, I graduated from the University of British Columbia with a degree in International Relations and a general focus in the area of environmental politics. In the fall of 2005, I began reading for an M.Phil in IR at Wadham College, Oxford. Outside school, I am very interested in photography, writing, and the outdoors. I am writing this blog to keep in touch with friends and family around the world, provide a more personal view of graduate student life in Oxford, and pass on some lessons I've learned here.

2 thoughts on “The future of India and China”

  1. “Despite the headlines, India is doing rather well. Its economy is expected to expand by 8.5% this year. It has a long way to go before it is as rich as China—the Chinese economy is four times bigger—but its growth rate could overtake China’s by 2013, if not before (see article). Some economists think India will grow faster than any other large country over the next 25 years. Rapid growth in a country of 1.2 billion people is exciting, to put it mildly.

    There are two reasons why India will soon start to outpace China. One is demography. China’s workforce will shortly start ageing; in a few years’ time, it will start shrinking. That’s because of its one-child policy—an oppressive measure that no Indian government would get away with. Indira Gandhi tried something similar in the 1970s, when she called a state of emergency and introduced a forced-sterilisation programme. There was an uproar of protest. Democracy was restored and coercive population policies were abandoned. India is now blessed with a young and growing workforce. Its dependency ratio—the proportion of children and old people to working-age adults—is one of the best in the world and will remain so for a generation. India’s economy will benefit from this “demographic dividend”, which has powered many of Asia’s economic miracles.

    The second reason for optimism is India’s much-derided democracy. The notion that democracy retards development in poor countries has gained currency in recent years. Certainly, it has its disadvantages. Elected governments bow to the demands of selfish factions and interest groups. Even the most urgent decisions are endlessly debated and delayed.”

  2. 00:00:27 .. let me start .. have you before in a situation where you owe someone money?

    00:00:36 (Laughter) and you kind of hope, like, maybe they’ll forget about it.

    00:00:42 (Laughter) now imagine that the guy you owe money to is a country.

    00:00:48 And the “some” money is almost a trillion dollars.

    00:00:52 (Laughter) >> china’s president hu jintao arrives in washington for a state visit today.

    00:00:59 >> Jon: (Beep) (laughter) quick, america, turn off the lights!

    00:01:06 (Laughter) maybe he’ll think we’re not home!

    00:01:09 >> The communist leader touching down just a couple of moments ago at andrews air force base.

    00:01:14 Vice president joe biden waiting to greet him.

    00:01:19 >> Jon: Biden!

    00:01:21 (Laughter) screwing up the whole plan!

    00:01:24 (Laughter) well, now that the china needs know we’re home, chinese .. hu jintao’s getting the full treatment.

    00:01:38 High-level meetings, press conference, state dinner, and a frt-row seat to a grand review of our military might.

    00:01:44 (Laughter) yeah, nice work.

    00:01:50 Nice job.

    00:01:51 Real impressive display in front of the leader of a country that made this the opening act to a volleyball match/swim meet.

    00:02:06 (Laughter) ..

    00:02:11 Not to make fun of the fife and drums, I mean, we can’t go too all out.

    00:02:16 We want china to have a nice time but we do owe them a trillion dollars.

    00:02:21 (Laughter) it is his money.

    00:02:24 But it’s all good, right, china?

    00:02:26 >> Does the united states need to be worried about this ams now growing threat from china?

    00:02:29 >> We do owe china a lot of money.

    00:02:31 >> China is now the largest foreign holder of u.s. debt.

    00:02:36 >> Should we fear china?

    00:02:37 >> Jon: Fear them?

    00:02:40 Baby, chill!

    00:02:43 We’re playing this just right.

    00:02:44 See, when a country owes you a billion dollars they’ve got a problem.

    00:02:50 When a country owes you a trillion dollars you got problems.

    00:02:57 (Laughter) we’re too big to fail mother (beep)s!

    00:03:02 !

    00:03:05 (Laughter and applause) a little object lesson.

    00:03:07 You know, about 20 years ago there was another asian country whose economic imperialism we feared.

    00:03:14 Today their chief american export?

    00:03:16 Giant slippery balls.

    00:03:18 (Laughter) that guy hurt himself badly!

    00:03:24 (Laughter) relax!

    00:03:29 We’ll promise china we’ll be more fiscally responsible.

    00:03:32 We’ll double our plastic toothpick import orders.

    00:03:36 Cha-cha that and a couple years we’ll be back on top and it will all be incredibly polluted water under the bridge.

    00:03:42 >> The chinese president took a dollar saying its dominance may be a product of the past.

    00:03:47 >> What he wants is the renminbi his currency, to be the world’s global reserve.

    00:03:52 >> Jon: What?

    00:03:54 (Laughter) you just want to make the dollar .. you know, china?

    00:03:59 Fine!

    00:04:00 Go ahead, world!

    00:04:01 Make the renminbi the global currency.

    00:04:04 Make china the world’s superpower.

    00:04:06 (Beep) it.

    00:04:06 Here’s the keys!

    00:04:08 Take them, take them!

    00:04:09 You know what, world?

    00:04:10 We quit!

    00:04:11 You want it, china, you got it!

    00:04:14 China is the new us!

    00:04:15 Everybody was coming to us with security, mosquito nets, whatever, fine, fine!

    00:04:21 (Cheers and applause) we’re done!

    00:04:25 (Laughter and applause) I don’t even care about it.

    00:04:32 You know what africa?

    00:04:33 (Beep) you!

    00:04:34 Southeast asia (beep) you!

    00:04:37 Amsterdam, you’re cool.

    00:04:38 We’re still good, right?

    00:04:39 (Laughter) you don’t know what it’s like, china!

    00:04:42 Everybody wants and wants and wants.

    00:04:48 Do they appreciate it?

    00:04:48 No.

    00:04:48 I know you love your flags, china.

    00:04:50 Better make more of them because people are going to start burning them!

    00:04:52 (Laughter) being a superpower is like being a santa claus that everyone wants to kill.

    00:04:58 (Laughter) just give me what’s in the backpack, man, and get the (beep) out!

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