Over on FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver is arguing that there is little evidence that high oil prices reduce the chance of re-election for an American president, except indirectly as they affect GDP, inflation and unemployment.
Silver does highlight that a return to recession can be expected to significantly diminish President Obama’s re-election prospects. That’s the sort of political incentive that can favour urgent activity to encourage economic growth and reduce unemployment, potentially at the expense of the long-term stability of the economic system.
In the spring of 2005, I graduated from the University of British Columbia with a degree in International Relations and a general focus in the area of environmental politics. In the fall of 2005, I began reading for an M.Phil in IR at Wadham College, Oxford.
Outside school, I am very interested in photography, writing, and the outdoors. I am writing this blog to keep in touch with friends and family around the world, provide a more personal view of graduate student life in Oxford, and pass on some lessons I've learned here.
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One thought on “Oil prices and presidential prospects”
“There is no rational reason for high oil prices,” writes Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, in today’s Financial Times. Well, I can think of one– if oil prices were lower, the world would want to consume more than is currently being produced.