Open thread: Brexit

2016-07-15

in Economics, Law, Politics, The environment

Will it really happen? Or will the U.K. find some way to pull out before invoking Article 50?

The consequences of the leave vote were evidently predictable. This is from June 18th: “If Remain wins on June 23rd, Brexiteers will tell voters they were conned. If Leave wins, Mr Cameron will go and his successor will negotiate a Brexit that does not remotely resemble the promises of the Leave campaign, which trades on the lie that Britain can have full access to the European single market without being bound by its regulations and free-movement rules.”

Also — what impact will this have on global climate efforts? Early signs are not encouraging.

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{ 12 comments… read them below or add one }

. July 16, 2016 at 9:20 pm

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36802807

Commenting on the need to act to stabilise the economy, Mr Haldane, said: “Put differently, I would rather run the risk of taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut than taking a miniature rock hammer to tunnel my way out of prison – like another Andy, the one in the Shawshank Redemption.
“And yes, I know Andy did eventually escape. But it did take him 20 years. The MPC does not have that same ‘luxury’.”

. July 16, 2016 at 10:57 pm
. July 19, 2016 at 4:33 pm

UK’s new premier axes Department of Energy and Climate Change

The UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has been scrapped and its brief folded into the newly created Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) department. The formation of BEIS, which was announced yesterday following Theresa May’s appointment as the new British Prime Minister, adds energy-related matters to the remit of its predecessor the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.

. July 19, 2016 at 4:55 pm

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has not changed the country’s commitment to investing in low-carbon energy, including new nuclear, nor its efforts to tackle climate change, Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom told members of parliament (MPs) today. Meanwhile, a report issued by the National Audit Office (NAO) says the UK “lacks a proven, skilled supply chain to support the construction of a new power station”.

She said: “The UK’s climate change commitments are grounded in the UK 2008 Climate Change Act, which commits us to a reduction in emissions of 80% by 2050, from 1990 levels. Our membership of the EU has no impact on our commitment to this Act, as shown by our decision to accept the Committee’s advice on the level of the 5th Carbon Budget just two weeks ago.”

. July 19, 2016 at 4:57 pm

The Brexit effect on UK nuclear

EDF Energy, NuGeneration and Horizon Nuclear Power have all stressed their commitment to the UK’s nuclear new build program, despite the country’s decision to leave the European Union. Nevertheless, the majority vote in favour of ‘Brexit’ – decided in a national referendum held yesterday – may have implications for investment in new reactors and nuclear research, as well for the UK’s future role in meeting climate change targets, industry participants said.

. July 28, 2016 at 2:01 pm

You interviewed Chris [Hayes] about Brexit and I just want to submit to you that the mistake the U.K. media and U.K. elites made with Brexit is the exact same one that the U.S. media and U.S. elites are making about Trump. U.K. elites were uniform, uniform, in their contempt for the Brexit case, other than the right-wing Murdochian tabloids. They all sat on Twitter all day long, from the left to the right, and all reinforced each other about how smart and how sophisticated they were in scorning and [being snide] about UKIP and Boris Johnson and all of the Brexit leaders, and they were convinced that they had made their case. Everyone they were talking to—which is themselves—agreed with them. It was constant reinforcement, and anyone who raised even a peep of dissent or questioned the claims they were making was instantly castigated as somebody who was endangering the future of the U.K. because they were endorsing—or at least impeding—the effort to stop Brexit. This is what’s happening now.

But this gets back to the point I was trying to make earlier, which is, if you are someone who wants to stop Trump or Brexit, your goal should be to communicate effectively with the people who believe it is in their interest to support Trump or Brexit. I think in general there is no effort on the part of media elites to communicate with those people and do anything other than tell them that they are primitive, racist, and stupid. And if the message being sent is that you are primitive, racist, and stupid, and not that you have been fucked over in ways that are really bad and need to be rectified, of course those people are not going to be receptive to the message coming from the people who view them with contempt and scorn. I think that is why Brexit won, and I think that is the real danger of Trump winning.

. August 8, 2016 at 5:03 pm

Perhaps. But there is another side to the story. A Europe with the Britain sucked out of it will take a distinctly dirigiste turn, warns Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Estonia’s president. Its ambitions on trade, the digital single market and energy—precisely the sorts of programmes the low-growth EU ought to be focusing on—will shrink without their largest champion, and the band of smaller liberal northern countries who have traditionally looked to Britain for a political steer will find themselves exposed to the protectionist instincts of the southerners. Add to that the time, resources and energy that will be poured into the extraordinarily complex task of disentangling the two partners of this 43-year-old relationship, and it becomes clear that Brexit is good for no one.

It may be for this reason that Project Denial is in full swing throughout Europe. When the moment comes, say some, no British prime minister will pull the trigger pointing towards his or her head. Others wonder if a lifeline might be thrown to Britain in a year or two; perhaps a concession on migration could be sold to voters in a second referendum. Meanwhile Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson, a possible successor to Mr Cameron, persist in the illusion that they can secure an exit deal for Britain that contains everything they want, including access to the single market, and nothing they dislike, such as free movement for EU workers.

Europe’s other leaders laugh at that idea. Perhaps they suffer from ideological rigidity; perhaps they are defending core European values. Either way, it illustrates the gulf of mutual incomprehension that has finally doomed this gainful but troubled relationship. Alas, there will be lots more misunderstanding in the years ahead, as Britain attempts to extract the maximum advantages from its withdrawal and the remaining countries close ranks. The best hope for both sides is that they can reach an arrangement that resembles but falls well short of what they have left behind. That will be a sad requiem for a partnership that once promised, and delivered, so much. So don’t forget to hug a Brit.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21701513-everyone-feels-pain-britons-brussels-sympathy-wont-last-and-shut-door

. August 11, 2016 at 9:35 pm
. August 11, 2016 at 9:40 pm
. August 16, 2016 at 11:59 am
. October 13, 2016 at 12:29 am

Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, moved to quell dissent over Brexit at a cabinet meeting to brainstorm plans to leave the EU. She was clear that there would be no second referendum and that Britain would not attempt to stay in the EU “by the back door”. Mrs May also ruled out holding an early election. A vote now could give her Conservative Party a sizeable increased majority: opposition Labour MPs are still trying ineptly to get rid of their hapless leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

. October 13, 2016 at 12:34 am

AFTER Britain voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd, financial markets took fright. Sterling lost one-tenth of its value in two days of trading. The FTSE 250, an index of domestically focused firms, fell by 14%. Remainers predicted that Leave voters would soon suffer from an acute case of buyer’s remorse. Yet as the summer has worn on, the mood has changed. Companies have not fled Britain en masse. The pound has stabilised and the FTSE 250 is up on its pre-referendum level. Polls suggest that few Brexiteers regret their vote: indeed, many of them now argue that the pre-referendum doom-mongering was overblown, and some even detect the beginning of a “Brexit boom”. What is the reality?

What of exports, which Brexiteers forecast would soar following a fall in the pound? A survey of manufacturing firms on September 1st showed strong growth in sales to places like America and China. Yet hopes of an export boom should be tempered. A high proportion of exports’ content is made up of imports, which are now pricier. And British exports compete mainly on “non-price” factors, such as quality and customer service, making them insensitive to currency fluctuations. When sterling fell by a similar amount in 2008-09, net exports barely responded.

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