Open thread: 2019 federal election


in Canada, Economics, Politics, Rants, Science, The environment

The CBC is reporting on polling results pertinent to this fall’s federal election: CBC News poll takes snapshot of Canadians ahead of fall election.

They say the cost of living was the top concern identified, followed by climate change. This suggests a familiar Canadian dynamic: being notionally concerned about climate change, but rejecting action on the necessary scale because of a perceived threat to short-term economic growth and personal financial well-being.

This integrated nicely with Andrew Scheer’s Conservative climate plan, which follows the traditional formula of expressing concern about climate change, proposing only speculative and painless long-term measures to deal with it while insisting that the fossil fuel industry can keep growing, and vaguely hoping that the rest of the world will solve the problem while Canada changes little and continues to actively make it worse.

There’s so much about this election that is depressing: how Trudeau and his government have done a poor job but remain the only non-abominable party with a chance of winning, how the discussion on the left will largely remain a squabble about blocking each other which the progressive parties cannot overcome, and ultimately Canada being carried forward by inertia and the defenders of the status quo into an unliveable and chaotic future.

{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }

. July 1, 2019 at 10:26 pm

ANALYSIS: May’s Greens a greater threat than the NDP to Trudeau’s Liberals’ re-election chances

Three years ago, in August 2016, just 31 per cent of those surveyed were prepared to consider voting Green. By May of this year, 44 per cent have the Green Party on their menu of potential voting options. By contrast, the Liberal pool of accessible voters has dwindled from close to 70 per cent down to just under 50 per cent in the same period.

“The Liberal decline has benefitted the Green Party,” the institute said in its release. “This comes as more Canadians identify the environment and climate change as a top issue facing the country.”

And while even May herself thinks there is almost no chance of the Greens forming government in Ottawa this fall, she and many others believe there is a realistic chance they could move from their current holding of two seats in the 338-seat House of Commons to win official parliamentary party status at 12 seats. And with scenarios in which the NDP is reduced to 20-something seats and the BQ boosts itself to a seats number in the high teens, it then becomes quite possible that the Greens could be sought out to sustain a Liberal or Conservative minority government in a future confidence vote.

Milan August 4, 2019 at 2:06 pm
. August 7, 2019 at 3:26 pm

Wednesday’s announcement comes as the CBC’s Poll Tracker puts the Green Party at 10.9 per cent in the polls, edging up to the NDP, which has 14.2 per cent support. The Poll Tracker was last updated July 26, but a Mainstreet Research poll of 2,463 Canadians conducted for iPolitics suggests the Green Party is now tied with the NDP at 11.1 per cent.

. August 24, 2019 at 5:42 pm
. September 3, 2019 at 11:09 pm
. September 5, 2019 at 5:48 pm

Greens forced to backtrack as NDP ‘defectors’ say they never jumped ship

One ex-candidate tells CBC News he had no idea he was on the list

. September 9, 2019 at 4:27 pm

Do the Greens have what it takes to pass the NDP?

The Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21.

. September 18, 2019 at 7:20 pm
. September 24, 2019 at 1:29 pm

Any province could veto a major pipeline under an NDP government, says Singh

‘I would not impose a project on any province’: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh

. September 24, 2019 at 2:53 pm

Don Braid: An awful realization — a Liberal minority government means the end of Trans Mountain

Anybody who doesn’t think the Liberals would slide away from the pipeline, even after spending $4.5B for it, doesn’t grasp their determination to stay in power

. October 6, 2019 at 6:16 pm

In a widely cited analysis published by Policy Options, energy economist Mark Jaccard concluded Canada’s emissions in 2030 would be 100 megatonnes higher under the Conservative’s plan than they would be under existing Liberal policies. Though neither simulation met Canada’s international commitments.

. October 7, 2019 at 4:48 pm

Emissions will rise under Conservative climate plan

A leading climate expert’s modelling of the Conservative climate plan shows emissions will rise, as the proposed tools are not proven to work.

. October 9, 2019 at 1:02 am

28% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority

33% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

28% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

9% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

. October 15, 2019 at 9:40 pm
. October 16, 2019 at 7:12 am

The sudden, swift decline in Liberal fortunes — to the point where the result of next Monday’s election may hang in the balance — has come as “a great surprise” to diplomats, given Canada’s stable economy and relative affluence

. October 20, 2019 at 9:36 pm
. October 20, 2019 at 11:03 pm

As Green and Liberal support in Western Canada has evaporated in favour of a surging Jagmeet Singh, some ethically-minded Liberal and Green Party candidates, concerned about the possibility of vote splitting on the center-left resulting in the election of Conservatives, are reported to have considered reducing or ending campaign activity, in an effort to increase turnout and support for New Democrats in their ridings and avoid the vote splitting in western ridings that could lead to a potential Tory majority.

In Edmonton-Strathcona, Green Party candidate Michael Kalmanovitch stepped down, indicating that only the NDP could win the seat. The Green Party booted Kalmanovitch out of the party as a result, although it permitted four candidates who had made Islamophobic comments to stand.

. October 20, 2019 at 11:04 pm

The final 338Canada projection: The most uncertain federal election in decades

Philippe J. Fournier: The night before the election, there is no certainty in the numbers. We could end up with the first popular vote and seat split in 40 years.

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