COVID in winter

Toronto is returning to a partial COVID lockdown because of rising case numbers.

It has limited practical effect on me since I have been in isolation anyway since early March, only going out for groceries and socially distanced walks for exercise.

I suppose the pandemic and the public policy response will always be subject to multiple interpretations. I can’t recall any comparable disease control measures in my lifetime, so you could say that the world has responded with unprecedented energy. At the same time, the pandemic is a constant reminder of how many people put their own comparatively unimportant preferences (like for entertainment and variety) ahead of protecting themselves and others, limiting the effectiveness of public health measures and extending this entire unpleasant experience for everyone. Like climate change, the pandemic provides endless examples of people who begin with what they want to do and then choose beliefs which are compatible.

All told, the behaviour of governments and populations highlights how poorly human beings respond to slow and generalized threats, as opposed to the fast and personal kind. That’s not an encouraging precedent at a time when the future of humanity is in jeopardy if we cannot cooperate, moderate our selfish desires, and do what’s necessary to control the problem.

66 thoughts on “COVID in winter”

  4. 77 fines issued, 7 people charged for breaking Canada’s quarantine rules during COVID-19

    More than a million people have been required to quarantine upon entering Canada

    …

    RCMP officers issued the majority of the fines, which ranged from $275 to $1,275. Individuals can either pay their fine or contest it in court. Anyone charged — typically for a more serious offence — must appear in court.

    Under the Quarantine Act, both Canadians and foreigners entering Canada must quarantine for 14 days, unless they get a special exemption.

  15. Pfizer’s vaccine is an mRNA vaccine officially called BNT162b2.

    It consists of genetic instructions on how to make the modified spike protein from SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The genes are encoded in mRNA and packaged in lipid nanoparticles. Once the vaccine is injected into the body, human cells use the instructions to make copies of the spike protein for the immune system to learn to recognize.

    The technology includes Vancouver-based Acuitas Therapeutics’s lipid nanoparticles to deliver the mRNA after it’s injected into our cells.

    Another vaccine in Phase 3 trials that uses mRNA technology is Moderna’s (which has also been preordered by the Canadian government). Two others, CureVac’s and Arcturus Therapeutics/Duke-NUS’s candidates, are in Phase 2.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-faq-1.5795486

  19. Pfizer’s vaccine is also the first using a promising new technology. Many vaccines prime the immune system by introducing inert fragments of viral protein. This one gets the body to make the viral protein itself by inserting genetic instructions contained in a form of rna. Because you can edit rna, the vaccine can be tweaked should the spike protein mutate, as it may have recently in mink. This platform can be used with other viruses and other diseases, possibly including cancer, BioNTech’s original focus.

    …

    Worse, Pfizer’s shots need to be stored at temperatures of -70°C or even colder, far beyond the scope of your local chemist. The company is building an ultra-cold chain, but the logistics will still be hard. The vaccine comes in batches of at least 975 doses, so you need to assemble that many people for their first shot, and the same crowd again 21 days later for a booster. Nobody knows how many doses will be wasted.

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/11/14/the-promise-of-the-new-covid-19-vaccine-is-immense

  22. Figures compiled by Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table estimated the percentage of virus outbreaks — sometimes defined as two or more people being infected from the same source — in different types of venues.

    The largest chunk, 27 per cent, were in long term care and retirement homes, at 27 per cent, followed by schools and day cares, at 22 per cent. Others included restaurants, clubs and bars, 6.5 per cent, stores 5.6 per cent, and gyms at 3.3 per cent.

    Before it ended most contact tracing last month, Toronto Public Health found that 18 of 45 outbreaks during a week in September were in restaurants and bars.
    Montreal’s health department also tracked outbreaks of COVID-19. Shops of various kinds represented the largest source – 50 out of a total of 151 – followed by the service industry, including bars, gyms and hotels, with 26 outbreaks.

    https://nationalpost.com/health/where-exactly-are-canadians-catching-covid-19-authorities-are-not-totally-sure

  43. When is the general public expected to receive a vaccine?

    Much of that depends on the province or territory. In Ontario, retired general Rick Hillier, the head of the province’s vaccination distribution task force, said he believes “we can get into a lot of mainstream Ontario by later July.”

    But other provinces, such as Alberta, have pegged the fall of 2021 as the beginning of the third phase, when the general population will receive the vaccine.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canadians-vaccinated-covid-19-1.5854325

  44. Post-secondary student stress high ahead of another virtual semester | Calgary Herald

    https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/post-secondary-student-stress-high-ahead-of-another-virtual-semester

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    Giving people false hope about the pandemic isn’t ‘balanced’ – it’s dangerous | Coronavirus | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/01/false-hope-pandemic-dangerous-disinformation

    —

    26 Belgian retirees die after visit by volunteer Santa Claus who tested positive for COVID – CBS News

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/26-belgian-retirees-die-after-visit-by-volunteer-santa-claus-who-tested-positive-for-covid/

    —

    Hospitals risk being overwhelmed because of holiday COVID-19 rule-breakers – The Globe and Mail

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-hospitals-risk-being-swamped-because-of-holiday-rule-breakers/

  49. As one of the papers due to be presented at the conference explains, covid-19 is likely to reshape people’s beliefs about the world in ways that will complicate the already daunting task of restoring beleaguered economies to health.

    …

    The authors build a model in order to assess how this effect on beliefs might influence the recovery from covid-19. After a very severe initial economic shock from the pandemic, output recovers but does not return to the previous growth trajectory. Part of that long-run depressing effect can be accounted for by “capital obsolescence”: the fact that some of the existing capital stock can no longer be used as efficiently as before, or at all. Office space, for instance, may be used less intensively, as a precaution. But people also revise down their expectations of the return on future investments because they expect pandemics to become more likely. This leads to less investment, other things equal, and slower growth. In the long term GDP is as much as 4% below its pre-crisis level. The authors reckon that the present discounted value of losses associated with capital obsolescence and changing beliefs may be as much as ten times larger than the cost of the initial shock. And most of the long-term loss stems from revisions to beliefs.

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/08/27/psychological-scars-of-downturns-could-depress-growth-for-decades

  62. TORONTO — Ontario has entered a third wave of COVID-19, the province’s hospital association says.

    In a tweet published on Monday, the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA) said that variants of concern are steeply rising and the number of patients in intensive care is trending upwards.

    “We’re now in wave three,” the OHA said, adding that “strong adherence to public health measures is urgently needed to prevent overwhelming hospitals.”

    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-now-in-third-wave-of-covid-19-province-s-hospital-association-says-1.5347940

  63. Ontario’s independent COVID-19 Science Advisory Table said earlier Tuesday that two thirds of the province’s 34 public health units are now experiencing exponential growth of COVID-19 cases and declared that a third wave had arrived. On Monday, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Williams said Ontario appears to be at the “base of a third wave” of infections

    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/don-t-get-this-wrong-statistician-says-no-doubt-third-wave-has-started-in-ontario-1.5350211

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