Up Grouse again

Today marked the second time in three days when I have made the snowy trek up Grouse Mountain with my father. Today’s venture benefitted from three excellent additions: the presence of my friend Jonathan and post-hike beer and nachos. Vancouverites are lucky to have the option of spending an hour rapidly gaining altitude by hand and foot, only to walk into a nice restaurant and begin feasting on a considerable heap of cheese-chip-vegetable synergy.

Residents of Vancouver should consider making the climb during the next few days. You need to walk past the signs advertising that the trail is closed and then eastward around the fence. I wouldn’t recommend doing it alone or after dark, but it is quite safe and very beautiful in the snow.

Coral reefs and climate change

Mica Prazak, Milan Ilnyckyj, and Sasha Ilnyckyj

While the Arctic is the most climatically vulnerable human-inhabited environment, coral reefs will probably see the most comprehensive destruction in coming decades. According to the IPCC, it is highly likely that they will succumb to a combination of heat and oceanic acidification as temperatures rise in response to greenhouse gas emissions. It is estimated that the last 25 years have seen the loss of 30% of warm-water coral cover. The worst summers so far for coral bleaching have been 1998 and 2002: in which 42% and 54% of all reefs worldwide were affected. As much as 80% of Caribbean coral may already have died.

Coral bleaching occurs when the zooxanthella algae that live in coral tissues die. The report of Working Group II of the IPCC highlights high surface temperatures as “almost certain to increase the frequency and intensity of mass coral bleaching events.” Throughout the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports, coral reefs are highlighted as being especially vulnerable to climatic change, with low adaptive capability.

Oceanic acidification reduces the calcifying ability of corals, by making it more difficult for them to extract calcium from seawater. In cases of extreme acidity, existing structures could begin to dissolve. According to the IPCC “the progressive acidification of oceans is expected to have negative impacts on marine shellforming organisms.” Studies have demonstrated that projected future ocean acidity will reduce coral calcification and weaken coral skeletons.

The Fourth Assessment Report projects that most corals will be bleached by a temperature rise of 1 to 3°C, with increasing coral mortality at higher levels of temperature increase. Between 2.5 and 3.5°C above the pre-industrial mean temperature, a summary table in the WGII report predicts simply “Corals extinct, reefs overgrown by algae.” It warns further that: “It is important to note that these impacts do not take account of ancillary stresses on species due to over-harvesting, habitat destruction, landscape fragmentation, alien species invasions… or pollution.” Given the low probability of keeping further temperature increases below 2°C – even with the advent of relatively stringent new international obligations – it is fair to say that most of the world’s coral is doomed to die. That, in turn, will undermine much of the basis of coral reef ecosystems. This is a further burden to some small island states, as coral reefs can be the habitat for important fish stocks. Reefs are also the most diverse marine ecosystems: home to about 25% of all marine species.

One way to interpret the news is this: if you have always dreamed of SCUBA diving in the natural splendour of a coral reef, make sure you do it fairly soon. Your children might not be able to do it at all. To quote the IPCC once more: “Annual or bi-annual exceedance of bleaching thresholds is projected at the majority of reefs worldwide by 2030 to 2050.”

Hacking Nintendo hardware

If you want proof that allowing people to tinker around with commercial hardware can produce cool results, take a look at this video. It shows a Wiimote mod done by Johnny Chung Lee that allows head tracking for the simulation of a three dimensional environment on a flat screen.

I wonder when we will see the first game that uses this approach. It could probably have some more serious applications, as well.

The sheer hackability of Ninendo hardware is making me seriously consider getting a DS. My brother has a card that lets you store dozens of games on a micro-SD card, as well as run homebrew applications.

[Update: 5 January 2008] I finally managed to track down a DS. I have put in an order for a device that will allow it to play ROMs from a micro-SD card, as well as run a web browser and other goodies.

[Update: 9 January 2008] For a very long time, I thought no Zelda game could top A Link to the Past. While it is too soon to know for sure, I can say that The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass is in the running. Playing with just the touch screen works surprisingly well. The DS is the most entertaining system I have used since the original Playstation.

[Update: 11 January 2009] I received an M3 DS Real Nintendo DS storage device in the mail today from EchoStore.com. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to have been properly manufactured and only functions intermittently. A number of web forums discuss making them a bit thicker by taping on pieces of paper. While this does seem to improve the success rate, it isn’t perfect and I would prefer one that works properly. As such, it seems destined to be returned to the manufacturer for exchange.

Panda update

Emily Horn and Milan Ilnyckyj

An article from the always-interesting Christmas issue of The Economist provides an update on the state of the panda: covering captive and wild populations, as well as new scientific thinking about what caused their endangerment. Pandas are widely cited as a truly hopeless animal. They are inept at and uninterested in reproduction, with females only fertile for 3-4 days a year anyhow. They are also only willing to eat a single food that is thoroughly lacking in calories and dies off en masse at regular intervals.

That said, captive populations seem to be on the rise thanks to better breeding techniques, while policies intended to prevent floods caused by deforestation have served indirectly to protect some wild habitat. It seems that despite their challenges – both natural and man-made – pandas will prove charismatic enough to endure.

Rainy ascent

Today, I did two things that are impossible in Ottawa in December: climbed a 1200m mountain and got rained on quite a bit. These activities are to be followed up by Chinese food and a Commercial Drive party. When one gets immersed in Vancouver, one must try to become thoroughly marinated before departing.

Concrete’s climatic consequences

The tragic electrocution of Emily Horn

While aviation and ground transport get lots of well-deserved attention, in terms of their climate change impact, the concrete industry seems to get a lot less scrutiny. In a way, this is unsurprising; concrete is hardly glamorous stuff. At the same time, concrete production accounts for about 5% of all greenhouse gas emissions: mostly from the process of manufacturing clinker by heating limestone and clay. This is usually done using coal. The average tonne of concrete produced generates about 800kg of carbon dioxide: both as a result of the coal burning and the product of the chemical reaction involved (CaCO3 -> CaO and CO2, ignoring silicates). This figure does not include emissions relating to quarrying rock or transport.

Cement manufacture can be incrementally improved in three ways: by reducing the ratio of clinker to other additives, by making kilns more efficient, and by using fuels other than coal for the heating. All of these can make contributions, to a certain degree, but only a complete shift to biomass heating could have a terribly significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions (and that effect could be moderated by the emissions from transporting the biomass).

Demand for cement is growing at about 5% a year, and is partially driven by the construction of new hydroelectric dams and nuclear power plants. At present, the rate of demand increase exceeds the rate of efficiency improvements. As such, greenhouse gas emissions associated with concrete are increasing every year. The average North American home uses about 25 tonnes of concrete, mostly in the foundation.

George Monbiot discusses concrete in his book, focusing on geopolymeric cements as a solution. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is theoretically possible, but with an added problem. Concrete plants must be sited near limestone quarries. These are not necessarily near the salt domes or aquifers where CCS can probably be most effectively deployed. Geopolymeric cements are similar to the pozzolan cement used by the Romans to build the roof of the Pantheon. They are made from clay, certain kinds of sedimentary rock, and industrial wastes. Producing them generates 80-90% less carbon dioxide. This is because they require a lot less heating and the chemical reaction that produces them does not generate CO2 directly.

The modern version of this material was only developed in the 1970s and has yet to be widely adopted. Partly, that is because of the cost of refitting existing cement works or building new ones. Partly, it reflects the hesitation of the construction industry to use new materials. Such objections can probably be most efficiently addressed through carbon pricing. If the concrete and construction industries were paying for those 800kg of CO2, the incentives they face would probably change decisively and fast.

Winter party

Vancouver friends: make sure your calendars are clear for the night of Saturday, December 29th. I will be throwing a party: to feature sushi, curry, much wine and merriment, and the probable playing of mandolins. Meet new and interesting people – or perpetuate long-running arguments that have spanned several of these tragically infrequent gatherings. Directions available upon request. The same is probably true for crash space and permission to invite guests of your own. The bringing of food and/or beverages is always encouraged.

No matter how many of these gatherings you have attended, there should still be a surprise or two.

Precise winter solstice

Emily Horn in Yogi’s, on Commercial Drive

This very minute, the Earth’s axis in the northern hemisphere is tilted as far away from the sun as it will be all year: the moment of the winter solstice. Since there is lag built into the annual cycle of temperatures, we still have much of the cold to endure. Even so, our progression through the orbit will expose this hemisphere to ever more sunlight over the course of the next six months.

Provided travel plans are being implemented smoothly, I should find myself in the air on the way to Vancouver when this post is published. It is excellent to have the chance to spend twelve days visiting family and friends, even if the (offset) greenhouse gas emissions from the flight are a source of guilt and evidence of hypocrisy.

It is likely that posts between now and January 2nd will be less frequent and substantial than the norm. After traveling all the way to Vancouver, it makes sense to spend every possible minute with those who are normally distant.

Copper indium gallium selenide solar cells

Nanosolar, a company supported by Larry Page and Sergey Brin (the founders of Google), has announced that it will be selling thin-film solar cells profitably for $1 a watt. Apparently, the cells are printed with copper indium gallium selenide – an alternative to silicon. Cells based on the material can convert solar radiation to electricity with 19.5% efficiency. In theory, this material can applied to foil, plastic, glass or cement – producing electricity generating surfaces. It can also be made into more conventional panels of the sort Nanosolar is starting to sell.

In the 1950s, solar cells cost about $200 per watt. By 2004 they were down to $2.70. Further reductions could make solar power cost competitive with fossil fuels, potentially even in the absence of carbon pricing. Combined with either better storage (to moderate light/dark and sunny/cloudy cycles locally) or better inter-regional transmission (the sun is always shining somewhere), such cells could eventually make a big difference in the overall energy balance. Solar has been discussed here previously.

On the possibility of leading an ethical life

Statue outside the National Archives in the snow

In response to a recent post, somebody asked: “Is it possible to live ethically in our society?”

The question is a surprisingly difficult one. One way to begin picking away at it is to present a common form of the argument that we cannot:

Premise 1: Society, as it exists, is unsustainable (here is an excellent and concise definition of the term)

Premise 2: By participating in society, we perpetuate that unsustainability

Premise 3: Unsustainable behaviour will eventually destroy the planet’s capacity to support humans and other species

Premise 3: It is wrong to destroy the planet’s ability to support future humans

Premise 4: It is wrong to destroy the planet’s ability to support non-human species

Conclusion: It is wrong to participate in society.

There are a number of possible responses to this argument:

1) Questioning the fact of unsustainability

The first is based purely on physical facts and projections about future physical facts. It is what might be called the MalthusLomborg axis, using the names of the most famous pessimist and optimist respectively. If you successfully disprove the claim that present society is unsustainable, you don’t need to worry about the other premises or the conclusion. The next possible approach is to say “Society isn’t monolithic, some bits are sustainable and some are not. As long as I am only supporting the sustainable bits, I am being ethical.” Beyond this, another approach is to say: “Society isn’t sustainable yet, but it will naturally become so in the future.” This is a version of the environmental Kuznets curve and it is an argument that has some possibility of being true.

2) Restricting the scope of who matters

One possibility that you will rarely hear argued is that we have no duty whatsoever to either (a) future generations or (b) people other than ourselves. If we can treat group (a) or both groups in any way we desire, the fact that society is unsustainable doesn’t matter. That said, you will not find many people arguing this position, probably because it offends virtually any general theory of ethics.

Many people reject the idea that it is wrong to harm non-human living things, except where such harm eventually causes harm to people.

3) Stressing the limitations of individuals

Another possible set of rebuttals are based around the scope of individual agency. A person can say: “The whole structure of society is unsustainable. I cannot change that. As a consequence, I am not responsible for the destruction induced by society.” This claim has a strong form – ‘I cannot change the whole world, so I have no duty to improve it at all’ – and a weak form – ‘I have a duty to improve the world, but don’t expect much from me.’ Another way of phrasing this is as a ‘no acceptable alternatives’ argument: “What am I supposed to do? Live naked in the woods, eating grubs and tree bark?”

4) Utilitarian arguments

Two more arguments are based around a kind of ethical calculation. The first says: “It is tolerable to do immoral things in some circumstances, provided the total sum of my actions is beneficial for humanity.” In this case, as long as a person has a net positive sum of morality, they can legitimately engage in limited forms of immorality. A somewhat different formulation is based on an idea of rationed wrongness: “Nobody can be expected to be perfectly good. As such, we each have a kind of ‘allowance’ for unethical behaviour. As long as we are spending within our allowance, we are ok.” The big difference here is that the ‘allowance’ is automatically disbursed as a recognition of human frailty, not earned through good deeds.

5) Competing duties

Yet another set of rebuttals is based on competing moral claims. A person can say: “I have a duty to care for my family, even if doing so involves participating in an unsustainable society.” This is a tricky one. It is also one that strikes close to why the kind of ethics being discussed here are so hard to achieve. In general, the unsustainable things we do provide relatively immediate benefits that are specific to us and the people who we know personally; the costs they impose are distant, diffuse, and largely born by people we will never know.

Tentative conclusions

What can we conclude about this? To begin with, it seems fair to say that most people are unaware of some significant ways in which actions they consider personal (driving a car, eating a sort of food, etc) impact others in a harmful way. It is also fair to say that no individual can possibly anticipate or understand the complete set of all outcomes arising from their behaviours. In addition to this, we must recognize the way in which contemporary economic structures can create huge distances between cause and effect. Just as a London banker’s cocaine-fuelled evening has affects in the coca growing regions of the Andes, much of what we consume as individuals affects other people at enormous distances.

Collectively, these realities imply a certain ‘duty of awareness.’ It is not ethically tenable to live in wilful ignorance about the consequences of our actions. Whether based on one of the forms of rebuttal above or something different, we need to have some kind of justification for our actions that measures up to what we consider their total set of effects to be. Estimating our impact and developing a justification almost certainly does not satisfy all our moral requirements, but it is probably a necessary step in any series of actions intended to do so.

The question of how we evaluate the relative plausibility of every person’s excuse is the really difficult one.