Milan – Page 626 – a sibilant intake of breath

Entertaining physics demonstrations

His name is Julius Sumner Miller and physics is his business.

For those who lacked my good fortune in seeing most of these demonstrations a number of times at Vancouver’s Science World, the videos should give a sense of how physics can be made universally comprehensible and exciting. The facts that Mr. Miller looks like a mad scientist and that he has a penchant for hyperbole may well contribute to his ability to hold one’s attention.

My involvement as a camper and leader at SFU’s Science Alive daycamp also impressed upon me the effectiveness of physical demonstrations in sparking children’s interest in science. That is especially true when the demonstrations involve rapid projectile motion, strong magnets, cryogenic materials, aggressive combustion, and explosions.

Geminid meteor shower

Those of you with clear skies should make a point of peering at them tonight. The shower – produced by debris from a near-Earth asteroid called 3200 Phaethon – should become increasingly intense throughout the night, peaking in intensity around dawn. According to NASA, this should be the best meteor shower of the year. It may well be worth getting up before dawn (or staying up especially late) and looking to the western sky.

3200 Phaethon is thought to be a former comet, dust from which began intercepting Earth’s orbit annually during the American Civil War. The object is about 5 kilometres wide and misses the earth by only 2 million kilometres. If you have access to a decent telescope (many university observatories are open to the public some nights), you can observer Phaethon in the constellation Virgo. It only has the brightness of a 14th magnitude star, so neither the naked eye nor binoculars are sufficient to pick it out.

Climate and the boreal forest

According to data submitted by Global Forest Watch Canada to the International Boreal Conservation Campaign (IBCC), Canada’s boreal forest contains 186 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. That is equal to about 27 years worth of present global emissions. Permafrost – which is rich in methane – makes up about 25% of the world’s land area and about 50% of Canada.

Significant permafrost melting would release gasses that would accelerate the warming trend. Making boreal areas into parks and avoiding deforestation there isn’t a terribly effective mechanism for keeping the bulk of these greenhouse gasses in the soil. The trees themselves are increasingly threatened by pine beetles, as warm winters permit their continued spread. Maintaining the soils as a carbon sink essentially requires that they remain cold – an increasingly distant prospect as emissions continue to grow and other carbon sinks become saturated.

No Arctic summer ice in 2012-13?

According to a BBC article, some scientists are predicting the disappearance of all Arctic summer ice within five to six years. This projection is based on computer modeling by Wieslaw Maslowski and uses data that doesn’t even take into account the spectacular loss of Arctic ice last summer. Maslowski’s team has produced an estimated rate of loss much higher than those of other groups who have studied the issue, but he defends the quality of his modeling:

“We use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data. This way, we get much more realistic forcing, from above by the atmosphere and from the bottom by the ocean.”

Even the work of other teams suggests the loss of summer ice between 2040 and 2100: a very rapid climatic change, given how most forms of natural climatic forcing operate on the timescale of millennia

The progressive deterioration of the northern polar cryosphere is disturbing for a number of reasons. Because water absorbs more energy from sunlight than ice does, the loss of the icecap would accelerate global warming. It would also eliminate or substantially alter the lifestyles of those living in the north, as well as most Arctic species. That said, there is some chance that the sudden disappearance of the Arctic icecap would be dramatic and irrefutable enough to kick off much more serious global action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and prepare to adapt to the amount of change that is now inevitable. In a world where the Arctic vanished before our eyes, radical ideas like those of Monbiot may start seeming reasonable to a lot more people.

Statements with no content whatsoever

There may be nothing more frustrating in the world than being unable to convince somebody that something is a tautology. You try as hard as you can to convince them that something is true by definition, but they persist in failing to see how you have designed the terms of the statement to be indistinguishable from the conclusion. Saying “Dogs are dogs therefore dogs are dogs” and having someone say, “Ah, but there are many kinds of dogs” is enough to drive one batty, if it happens often enough. Essentially, this is because the supposed point of contention is nothing of the kind – it is just a non sequitur that the other conversant thinks is some kind of rebuttal.

For some reason, training courses seem to spawn these sorts of logically agonizing discussions.

iBook dead

After running a routine maintenance script, my iBook has decided that it no longer wishes to perform any of the functions traditionally associated with a computer. It will probably be a few days before I am up and running again, during which time I will be unable to check my personal email.

Given that I will probably have to wipe my hard drive and start over, it makes sense to pick up a copy of the new release of Mac OS before I do so.

Back in a few days.

[Update: 2:37am] After $100 and seven hours of backing up, formatting, and installation, the computer is healthy enough to access the web – and running Leopard to boot. The lengthy task of bringing back all my data and applications will need to wait for a later time.

[Update: 12 December 2007] It seems having byte-for-byte backups of data held in Apple software is not terribly useful. I can import my 14,000 image files back into iPhoto easily enough (though it takes six hours), but they lose all the information I have spent dozens of hours entering: locations where they were taken, who is in them, whether they have been used as blog photos, etc. This whole recovery process has me tearing out my hair in frustration, while spending six hours or more each night working on it.

Positive externalities and the environment

When you see “environment” and “externality” in the same sentence, it is a safe bet that the issue being discussed is negative externalities associated with production or consumption. These are certainly critical, but they are not the only area in which environmental thought and economic theory on externalities intersect. The positive externalities associated with new technologies also bear consideration. When a firm or individual invents something that provides major overall benefits, many of those will accrue to other people. This is good from the perspective of those able to benefit from the new technologies, but it is theoretically bad for innovation overall. If I suspect that most of the gains for my new engine, battery, or vaccine technology will accrue to other people, I will not devote as much of my time and resources to developing such innovations as I would if I believed I would personally get all the benefits.

As with intellectual property rights in general, the issue of balance here is a critical and difficult one. We want to encourage people to design and build better solar cells, wind turbines, and power plants. They could arguably be best encouraged to do so by giving them extensive property rights over what they come up with: lengthy patents and the right to collect royalties from all users. That said, such a restrictive system could sharply limit distribution. Once we have a good technology, we want to see it widely deployed – including in places where people have urgent sustenance needs and cannot be fairly called upon to pay heavy royalty fees.

One established way to square this circle is with prizes. The X-Prize assisted the development of (highly greenhouse gas intensive) private space technology. Prizes may also be used successfully to encourage the development of vaccines and treatments for poor world diseases like malaria. Richard Branson has created a prize for straight-out-of-the-air carbon capture. A few big prizes for things like lowering the cost and efficiency of renewable power sources might help to overcome institutional hesitation within innovative firms, as well as get some clever people tinkering in their garages.

The existence of positive externalities associated with new technology also provides strong justification for other governmental interventions: including direct government research and governmental support for private and academic efforts. Internalizing the full costs of pollution is exceedingly important if we aim to achieve environmental protection within a free market system; internalizing the benefits of innovation may also help to bring that about.

For a much more detailed discussion, see: Jaffee, Adam et al. “A tale of two market failures: Technology and environmental policy.” Ecological Economics. Volume 54, Issues 2-3, 1 August 2005, Pages 164-174.

My dislike of taxis

I need to be deep in Gatineau relatively early tomorrow morning for a training session. Given that I do not want to walk ten kilometres through unfamiliar terrain and the first bus that goes to this place arrives after the session begins, it seems I have no choice but to take a cab – something I generally only do in situations where it is essentially unavoidable.

I dislike almost everything about taxis: the fact that they are cars, the ‘back of a police car’ feeling of riding in one, the fact they that so sharply privilege convenience over efficiency or cost, and the barbershop awkwardness of having to share a vehicle with a stranger from whom you are buying a necessary service that makes you anxious and unhappy.

At least I will be able to take the bus home in the evening.

Another climatic threat: jökulhlaups

In some parts of the world, large lakes are bounded by natural dams made of glacial ice. When the ice melts, the resulting surges of water are comparable in effect to the failure of human-made dams. Merzbacher Lake, in Kyrgyzstan, has completely emptied 39 times, following such events. An article in Geophysical Research Letters describes that lake in greater detail.

Significant past examples of such glacial lake outbursts occurred in Iceland, Alaska, Canada, and Bhutan. While relatively few areas are threatened by such events, they are demonstrative of the kind of change that is ongoing in the cryosphere.

Tsho Rolpa, a glacial lake in Nepal, seems to be due for such an event. It is 4580m above sea level and dammed by 150m of ice. The melting of the Trakarding Glacier is feeding the growth of the lake, which will eventually breach the ice wall in a highly dramatic manner. Local communities have been building raised watchtowers and shoring up embankments. Tsho Rolpa is one of 2,323 glacial lakes in the Nepalese Himalayas.

The eradication of smallpox

On this day in 1979, the World Health Organization certified that smallpox had been eliminated from the wild. It was probably the only intentional extinction in human history, and it was a considerable boon to the human race. The disease is an atrocious one, and it took a heavy toll across history. Notably, it caused much of the death associated with the arrival of Europeans in North America.

The extinction raises a number of questions. One is whether it will ever be repeated. We came close with polio. Very few people would mourn the elimination of tuberculosis, malaria, or AIDS. Worldwide eradication requires global coordination – something very hard to bring about when territories exist outside the control of any state. Think of the tribal areas bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Another issue has to do with smallpox itself. It was horrifically destructive to the First Nations because they lacked any of the immunity conferred by prior exposure. Now, the whole world is in essentially the same boat. An intentional or accidental release of the weaponized smallpox produced by many states could thus cause of devastating global pandemic. It rather makes one wish we had never turned it into a weapon in the first place.